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CHAPTER I.
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squadrons have at present to refit at Hong Kong, Shanghai, or Nagasaki. Sites have been reserved for fortifications at the entrance to Manila Bay, and near Olangapo, in Subig Bay. The latter will probably be adopted instead of Kavite as the principal United States' naval base in the Philippines.
7. The present mobilized strength of Japan is 801,000 men, in every way fit for service in the field, with over 500,000 trained men fit for home service.
Nagasaki is 1,070 miles from Hong Kong. The new advanced base, Formosa, with a garrison of three mixed brigades, about 15,000 men, is 350 miles, and the fortified naval port of Makung, in the Pescadores, is 317 miles distant.
Japan need not, however, under existing circumstances, be considered as a probable
enemy.
8. The Chinese have of late shown themselves to be of little account as a fighting Power, and at present their ability to act on the offensive may be taken as small. It will, however, always be prudent to take into consideration the possibility of an attack from Chinese territory, which may become formidable in the future if undertaken by a Chinese army stiffened by a nucleus of foreign troops. In the present Defence Scheme, however, it is considered sufficient to consider the somewhat less remote possibility of a Chinese incursion from the direction of Canton. The naval forces and defended ports of China may, for the present, be neglected.
9. It will be seen from the above considerations that large expeditionary forces might be directed against Hong Kong by Russia and France, or Japan, if in possession of sea command in the neighbouring waters. An attack of this nature on a large scale cannot, however, be delivered so long as His Majesty's navy maintains sea supremacy, and the Admiralty have accepted the responsibility of protecting all British territory abroad against organized invasion from the sea.
It is recognized, however, that His Majesty's ships, engaged in hunting out and bringing to action the enemy's squadrons, might not be in a position to prevent an attempted "coup de main" on Hong Kong by a small number of vessels, including possibly transports carrying troops. But it is improbable that a raiding attack would be made by more than a few ships, nor could it have any permanent effect unless troops could be landed; while in no case could a large number of men be conveyed to Hong Kong without such arrangements and preparations as would bring the operations under the category of those, which could certainly be dealt with by the navy.
It is to render Hong Kong secure against raiding attacks of the nature indicated that the fixed defences and garrison have been provided; and for purposes of calcula- tion, the scale of raiding attack, which it is the object of these defences to render impracticable, may conveniently be assumed as one delivered by not more than six or eight armoured vessels, accompanied by two or three armed transports, conveying in all a maximum landing force of 4,000 men. Hong Kong is not within the radius of attack by sea-going torpedo boats; and no special local defences are provided (except at dock gates) against attack by carried torpedo boats. The latter form of attack is primarily directed against men-of-war, and is left to be dealt with by them.
Li
Cable Communications.
10. There are two lines of cable communication between the United Kingdom and Hong Kong which are all British except for the Egyptian land lines which form part of one which runs by the Eastern Telegraph Company's cable from Porthcurnow to Gibraltar, Malta, Alexandria, Suez, Perim, Aden, Bombay; thence by Indian Govern- ment land lines to Madras, and onwards by the Eastern Extension Telegraph Company's two cables to Penang and Singapore, and by its one cable to Labuan and Hong Kong. The other runs by one of the trans-Atlantic cables to Halifax or Canso, Nova Scotia; thence by Canadian land lines and cables to Grappler Creek in Vancouver Island; thence by the Pacific cable touching at Fanning Island, Fiji, and Norfolk Island to Southport, Queensland; thence by Australian land lines to Fremantle, Western Australia; thence by Eastern Extension Telegraph Company's cable to Mauritius; and via the Seychelles, Zanzibar, Aden, &c. An alternative route not all British is as above to Australia; thence viâ Banjoewangie in Java to Singapore, &c. There is also one by trans-Atlantic cable and United States land lines to San
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