THE HONGKONG, TELEGRAPH, ·
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 1948.
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SEFTON DELMER INTERRUPTS HIS NEWSMAP TO WRITE AN IMPORTANT THREE-DAY SERIES
RUSSIA: Her strength
OR a couple of hours the
other day I had
A TO-
fresher course in Soviet atmosphere and Soviet slan- dards. I flew as a passenger in an aircraft of the Soviet airlines from Budapest to Belgrade.
A
The plane, like most of Europe's civil aircraft, was Dakota. But it was not shiny and bright like the ones you watch landing at Northolt or Heath Row. Dull green war paint cumouflaged it from nose to tail. In places the paint was flaking off.
There was no smartly uniformed steward or hostess to show me lo my seat. The entrance to the alt- craft was cluttered with passengers' luggage paper parcels, cloth bun- dles, and cheap fibre suitcases tied the locks up with string because
had
given way.
A hole in the wall showed where
n clock had once been. Someone had Alched it. Such things are pre- cious in Russia.
dirty, the
The gangway green plush seats were greasy.
I fell as though I were in a May- fair luxury flat which had been taken over by the squatters.
In front of me sat a Soviet off- cial and his wife on their way to Tirana to take up a past with the Soviet mlation there,
A lesson here?
and
stresses
¡AT A MOMENT when Moscow is the interest-centre of the world. the Hongkong Telegraph publishes today the result of a sustained
now shaping Soviet. Inquiry into the politico-military forces Russia. This inquiry has been conducted by Sefton Delmer, affairs is accepted 11 writer whose authority on foreign throughout Europe. Delmer divides his investigations Into three parts: 1, The Military Strength of the Soviet Union. 2, The Personal and Political Tensions within the Communist Oligarchy. 3, The New Phase in Kremlin Foreign Policy Beginning today with: HOW STRONG ARE STALIN'S SOLDIERS?
EXINGRAD A
S.
VOLGA URALS AREA
KARAGANIA
MONGOLIA
TASHKENT
shoddy #ecurity troops, the Red Navy, and
the Red Air Force.
looked at the cheap. blouse and skirt the woman was wearing, the hard. brittle cloth of the man's sult. And I remembered the fancy prices I had seen people for paying in the Moscow stores Just such clothes as these clothes
standards which by Russian this couple well up in the higher- Income rackets.
seemed
2.500.000 TOTAL
A mobilised army of
2,500,000
1.250.000
→ COAS
2204
KEY
$25,000
Á PETROLERING
YAN-FERROUS METALS
MAGADAN
The great SPACE
assets : and MEN
SAKHALIN
IN MODERN TIMES Russia has never won a war single-handed. She has always won with allles who attacked her enemy in the rear while the invader fost himself in the vastness of Russian territory and the seemingly inexhaustible supply of men.
Now
Russia
Russia's industrial potential, like that of all other countries, dependi on her three basic industries-coal, steel, and oil,
Of these four, the Red Army is much the most important. It has
Her output of coal just before the 2,500.000 men. And excellently
tons a year armed they are even though, going war was 170,000,000
than that of by the plans, the re-equipment of considerably less put
the army will not be completed un- Britain, which has only a fourth of
Russia's population. 11 1956.
20
In
Britain.
only 1 times thut of
Not even the targets set by Stalin for 1900 come up to the present level
Is using her great space for carefully-planned Indus- tril dispersal (see map left). Her army (see chart above) now comprisen 2,500,000 mobilised men. Hair of them are rifle divisions, a quarter armoured 'divi- sions, the rest artillery and cavalry. Mobilisation could add another million men inside a month,
a weakness which, exploited by our pensive in man-hours. In the
motor bombers, brought about the down- Russlan
lorry factories I fall of Germany-a country then a found them taking len times 15
out a vehiclo na thousand times better equipped than long to turn Kussin.
Britain. And that is borne out, by statistics.
Deficient in-
in
Certainly the Soviet Government is dispersing its industries into 1947 It was 180,000,000 tons. flew well. The blanc,, however,
Some of Russia's new tanks are Steel production in 1947 was 17.000.- THREE other typical deflefoncles areas where they will be difficult to out of many: (1) Rubber. They get at by Western bombers-even patched better and stronger than anything 000 tons, by The pilot. undaunted
serge the West has to offer.
have to import natural rubber for those bombers used on Turkey, the shoes and a worn-out blue
their Synthetic production.
East, Chinn, and uniform put us down in a perfect
Technicians with the know-how for But this dispersal heightens the landing dead on time.
of American production. By 1950, if the reaning of high-octane aviation problem of transport shortene
pirit
and the special keros
kerosene for If Stalin could conquer the world quick blitz with his giant army the plans are fulled, Russin will be
(3) Capital
equipment. The in a producing 10 per cent, as much coales (3)
visited in Moscow and be could win. plants
But for a long war as Amerien produced in 1847, 80 per Stalingrad were
working with the his millions lack the econorate bases. cent, as much steel, and 25 per cent.
weirdest assortment of machines. And, despite my lesson in the Russian. as much oil.
Iritish. German. and Belgrade plane. I still think Stalin American. All engineers I spoke knows it. to appealed to Britain and the U.S. Gent more machinery to Russin.
way
in
Could the Russians break through from Berlin to the Atlantic and Ugly. slummy. and wasteful this establish their rocket guns and U Soviet
UI lile
weapons on the Channel · coast? to Western
Not with what they have got my eyes accustomed standards. But the other passengers Germany now,
1hc did not mind the poverty and squalor. They did not notice it. We got there. That was all they cared about.
There may be a lesson in this. Maybe the cold nonchalance with ve which the Kremlin appears to Juggling with the possibility of war on R 100 is not just bluff, based confident assumption that the West is blufing. Perhaps in the eyes
Soviet Stalin and his advicers the Union appears both militarily and economically stronger in relation to the West then it does to the British, American, and French experts.
of
If Germany rose
These are basic deficiencies which would make it economically im possible for the Soviet Union to win a long war.
saan.
mc to SCC
that
Add to this the Soviet Union'a
This Jack of machinery is slowing- and making it ex- up production the grave weakness in transportation- and
UT it would not take them long to reinforce and marshal n striking force. For already now hats the 'Red Army is in the West. After that only atom bombing and destruction of roads, bridges, communications
in generally scorched earth withdrawal would hold them up.
ย
I regard it as doubtful whether the Germans would stand by and watch their scorched earth scorched again.
Nationalist propagandists -the German Army Junkers now in Russian pay-would have little dim-
Stalin has not visited Britain or America. It is quite possible that, like my fellow passengers in the Russian only aircraft, he knows standards and has no others with which to compare them. He may underestimate the Western contri-culty, I fear, in getting Germans to bution to Russia's victory in world war,
the
The information he gets from the outside world comes from Commu: nist sources anxious to prove their doctrinal orthodoxy and therefore dispused to flatter the protagonists of the Socialist revolution rather than to
with
the shock them truth."
4,000,000 men
TF.
E. on the other hand, Stalin' has La true appreciation of the relative strength of the Soviet Union
and
the West, I do not believe he will risk a shooting war.
I say this because I am confident that, despite
Curtain the Iron and the Soviet Government's pre- cautions of secrecy, it is possible to derive a broadly accurate picture
The Red Air Force has another an opera- half-million men, with tional force of 14,000 planes.
Weak air force
TOMORROW:
Russia's Leaders and the Atom Bomb
PARIS Hikers? Welcome,
LETTER
EVELYN ORONS
said
Doreen
the Duke
To those of us who remember the joyous and generous spirit of the the Libernlion Itself, the flop of
celebrations was not anniversary
the fault of the weather alone. En- thusiasma was lacking.
Citizens preoccupied with the 20 percent rise in food prices, in a small hurried past those month
bridge walls and on little tablets on
recall that this or which Frenchman fell there in the
that fight
for Parla four years ago. Decorated with sheaves of gladioli, these tablets caught the eyes of tourists. Said on: "Now I realise how many Frenchmen died for Paris."
Paris. rise ogaire the retreating British
23-year-old Loughborough collega and Americans.
elsewhere in student Charles Balles, there is IN Paris,
handy hole in the fence. And the French, Dutch, and Bel-France, there is a big new. of 4000 who have stayed there glans might be similarly tempted to resist self-destruction.
tourist element this year. Tho this season, 2,000 were British, ne- to management figures. element which lives cheap. And cording The Red Navy has half a million
at a shrewd guess, at least half Next in numbers were Dutch. And
there are many Americans, too. men. It is very weak in ships. But
is British.
In their crisp cotton frocks, tail it has a force of 250 submarines,
(from ford) and These tourists contribute nothing with more to come. And the sub- marines being
added now are of to the State railways: they bicycle Joan (from Newcastle) did not look the German Schnorkel type--which cometimes, they "auto-stop" (French as if they had slept in the bark of
a lorry during their tour. does not have to surface. There are for hitchhike) nearly always. And
Well, their But this they had done coming tents are pliched in shabby
the back through the Vosges. doubts, though, whether the Rus-do they go places? sian temperament in suited to long centre of the Cote d'Azur. under-sea voyages.
MAGIC OF A KILT The French papers said the Duke
found lorries
Another aspect of Liberation. of Windsor resented their presence:
the best bet, although they week: Renewed outburst in the the Duke riposted that he was de- THE hitch-hikers
print limou- public
of gibes against them enjoy them- lighted to sea
had several lifts in luxury
In Switzerland. "collabos.". selves.
Meet
of two
them--Doreen sincs, especially
THEIR FREE HOLIDAY Fitchen, aged 27, and Joan Watson Belgians were kindest: Britons have
a reputation for passing by. (21), students of social selence of
"And girle humping knapsacks THERE is no "pink petrol” is
France
But the Government BUT although American air experis King's College, Nepending
now nim to stop the racket in have praised the efficiency of the
They have been spending a week have a better chance than boys,"
they shamelessly said.
tourists petrol coupons by printing month's The various Ave-year plans, act-
Red Air Force-In
Paris after nearly a order to loosenin
An "auto-stop" tourist who
them in a distinctive colour. cles in Soviet newspapers and tech-
the purse strings of senators and holiday in Italy, Switzerland and
Many stories are told of enter- the broadcasts, of
for bs. nical journals,
a day reported prising motorists who got Fyrences Congressmen for the U.S. air pro-France, during which they reckon cently did an 11-day trip to the combined with
through wearing A Soviet radio,
the gramme: it in generally considered to have covered 1,000 miles.
When they go great success
selves holidays for nothing. contacts we have with the
And the cost?
the Bordeaux-Faris
The latest concerns party of many in the
French Russians
For home they expect to be down to kilt. He did administration of that the Red Air Force
weakest of Russin's weapons.
franc of the £15 in run in two lifts and one day.
auto-stop's
Belgians who crossed tho Experienced French Germany and Austria, all help to weak
Bot In four cars, Esch brought.
frontlor most of these 14.000 aircraft are the Inst
travellers cheques
for non-paying travellers; fill in the pleture.
obsolete planes of wartime vintage. with her. They sold their bicycles hiat
petrol coupons for 600 litres (about Three of 111 gallons) for his car, Many to them hns
wyer here, and tennis rackets to get the money. Dress in hiking shorts, carry ruck-
sacks. Two Englishmen in Bannels, the cars were then left at the fron- in W
which are a long way inferior to
and they have no regrets.
carrying suitcases, wondered why
tier while four of the Belgians con- Spitfire and hopelessly outclassed
they were left standing by
tinued their, holiday in one car. by the new Jels.
roadside all day.
Their 1,500 litres of unwanted The Parls camp, with its
(electricity in all petrol brought them £122 (18. Bd. market-for fort moderne"
aliro) in the black tents; shower baths for men and
the coupons alone. women) stays open all September.
The Government denied that this markot of the black department THIS WAS A FLOP
was serious: said it amounted to VISITORS have seen the superb about ten percent of the total allo-
of the Soviet Union's military and economic strength.
And this is how it appears to zam. In the military field Russia much the largest armed force the world today.
That is assured by, her vort man- and the fact that she has power demobilised proportionately less of her wartime forces.
Even so, she has not anything as many men as when Hitler like attacked in 1943.
Then Russin had 20,000,000 men between the ages of 17 and 57 for
Demobilisation reduced:
The Russians have jet fighters, We sold them some of the same type as that which, crash landed in' the Russlan zone recently. And they have also been building Jet bombers. In addition they have radar of the latest German medel.
bomb.
each
WEST END CAMP FOUND them staying in ་ thu near houghty
quarter They are paying less and д night for bed
Invalides.
76. than board.
The site is an open space lent by
Government to the French
called the enterprise private
*
Every Madame Serrie-Kalouguine,
Inations stay. there in. tents
by modest flower beda.
TU
the
"con-
pro-, anniversary by experts with a no-
Cas-
them-
But in both jets and radar they Camp Volant." run by a woman. Vinches and momuments of ention. But they are changing the are far behind the West. the armed forces. Only 10,600,000 Nor have they got the atomle night up to 330 young people of all this city floodlit for the Liberation colour of the coupons just the same.
HANGOVER SQUARE: this number to 4,000,000 men dis-- They are behind in aircraft convided by the management and sur tural gift for scenic display.
CAFE at the Opera runs cades of fireworks streamed from A hangover breakfast." The theletion, radar, and atomic power, rounded covers three meals the sky, But so did the rain. Rain
Thely because they are for behind in in-
two raw eggs, two aspirina and a dustrial potential and scientifle ro. Continental breakfast, lunch fengs, washed out the all-night street dan menu is tomato juice, black coffee,
and a hot cing that is usually the most ugree-
of iced water. Price five search. And it is this deficiency anlad, fruit, chceso),
able feature of the celebrations, and carafe to my mind must always meat dinner at night. There is a which make Stalin pause.
rule, in by 12.30 a.m.," but, said the fireworks ended in damp squits. shillings.
in
survived,
tributed over the Red Army,
The Cominform Gefeat Yugoslavia came because the Krem I had been misinformed by over optimistic reports concerning Tito's lack of backing.
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