Tuesday,
„HONGKONG TELEGRAPH
March 4, 1941.
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SECOND ARTICLE IN THE "TELEGRAPH'S" IMPORTANT NEW SERIES
་
RIDDLES OF 1941
Will Hitler
Invade Britain
THE great military ques-
tion of the moment is "Can Germany Invade Bri-
By
?
country, but in either he will be at n disadvantage against the stubborn defence that has been propared for him, and which ho must overcome quickly or be overwhelmed.
So I think that an invader's destruction cannot be long de- layed, and is, in any case, in- evitable sooner or later. ·
And as
Hitler must know this as well as I do, I do not believe he will order the attack,
gambler's last-
tain?" If I were asked for Major E. W. Sheppard, except as
an answer in one word, it would be No.
Let me expand and qualify that view.
famous writer on Army affairs, and Military. Correspondent for the "Daily Herald," London
plunge.
A
But, you may say, perhaps he will spring some new methods of attack on us. What about the possibility of invasion from
There is not the the air? It does not mean that Ger- cured a footing somewhere on tish Navy.
our coast, it would be of small slightest reason to believe that
It is possible that he might many cannot land troops in
use
to them.
it over will be. Certainly it will Britain. That is possible, though
not be able to clear the seaways various points by parachute or manage to land small forces at across the Channel for its army other means, and hope to rein- improbable.
political circumstances to
tact.
What It Means
once.
Swift Warning
We
PIANOS Hongkong Eelegraph. tatingly, Germany cannot con- the ships and can get them close
To get ashore tho. mass of No, if the German army comes force them; later by larger And it does not necessarily mean that she may not try to armament, munitions, transport here, it must still do so uncover parties in trpop-carrying aero-
and other material required for ed.
planes. land troops in the Okl Country. the conquest of Britain, they Perhaps she will be forced by would have to seize at least one But let us suppose that por-
But at well-equipped port, with its tions of it do get here, as they
should get swift tempt the project at which docks and quays and cranes in- just conceivably might. For if warning of their arrival. They Hitler launched several forces would be quickly ringed round Napoleon baulked.
from different points of his far by our forces, and our counter- War material cannot just be flung coastline of occupied terri- attacks would be launched at It means that in my opinion, expressed definitely and unhesi- thrown into the water out of tory, one or two of them might
ships' holds-assuming you have sneak to land.
The enemy would be heavily outnumbered, and outclassed in quer Britain by means of au to the shore-and they cannot
weapons. He would still be invasion.
be landed by boats on an open beach.. Big port equipment.is In that case, however, they unable to bring large supplies Here are my reasons.
required.
would be most hazardously of arms and munitions with
him. placed. They would still be up If Hitler had thought an in-
But our ports are well de against those obstacles I men-He would still be fighting in vasion could succeed. he would fended, and even if one fell into tioned above: superior oppost country unfavourable to have tried it months ago. If enemy hands we should certainly tion, strong defences, problems rapid and far-reaching advance ever he had a chance of bringing leave it in no fit state for use. of supply, lack of tanks and he requires.
He would, in fact, be up
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Tuesday, March 4, 1941. Wyndham St., Hongkong Telephone: 20615
THE prefix "Special to the Telegraph" is used by the "Itongkong Telegraph" to indicate nowe which is girlctly copyright under the provisions of the Telecommuni- cations Ordinance,. 1936. Bach nawe As bears the indication "UP" in received in Hongkong on the date of publication by the United Press Associations, who 10- serve all rights and førhfá republications, either wholly or in part without previous Arrangement,
REPRISAL RAIDS
THE daily reports of the German High Command
are
mer.
He missed that chance.
Obstacles
the
will never get so good a one to face our powerful counter- swift and irresistible progress And in the long run his.
again.
offensive.
Just Suppose
sen.
it off at all, he had one last sum- › Without such a port, the in- heavy guns.
vaders must either starve or Only with all these obstacles against the same difficulties as He waste away, or be left helpless removed could they make the those which would have con- fronted him had he come by inland that alone can bring
fate would be the same, too. The attempt must end in them any sort of success.
The possibility of a German No Chance ghastly failure.
There are other drawbacks. landing in Eire may occur to to in- It was as well for Hitler that For example, the invaders would some. I have never been able always cunningly worded; they vadedoubtedly, he meant when he did not try it last summer not have that close air support to see the advantage of this stor invasion of Britain. It is a step are, in fact, an important part of the time came to launch the Or if as some stories go, he did that was the key to the German as a move towards the eventual
try it, then he, was fortunate victory over France.
in the wrong direction. Nazi propaganda. This is well attack, he found himself faced that it was stifled at birth.
Also, the country in which It still leaves the main job to they would have to operate is be done. Its only purpose, illustrated in their manner of with an impossible task-and he
abandoned it,
far from favourable.
therefore, would be as a diver- recording large-scale aír raids on
Supposing he tries it now, or Britain.
His fleet was too weak to
In the north, where a landing sion-if German forces from simultaneously with. For example, the Nazis an-
cover the passage of his invad- next month, or in the early from Norway might possibly be Eire could later attack Western
His air force was summer of 1941? His air force attempted, there is good ground Britain that,a recent night
ing army. nounce
more and better for tank operations. But it is others from the east or south. may have blown out of the sky by the machines than it had last attack, on Cardiff was in re-
have the tanks. R.A:F.-and-could.not cover his autumn-but so has the R.A.F. We, not the invaders, who will taliation for a British raid on
And the R.A.F. to-day and
Even then, our reserves army, either. Bremen.
East Anglia and the Home The implication is
to-morrow, as yesterday, would If he had persisted, the Ger-
go into battle with all the moral Counties are, for the most part, would be more powerful and that if Bremen had not been
man soldiers would have had to factors of superiority on its side. "closed" country-with small mobile than anything the enemy We could attacked, Cardiff would not have attempt the invasion alone and
fields and many trees and could get ashore, The Luftwaffe's prospects of hedges. Here every step of the therefore deal first with ono, and been visited by the German uncovered. And what a fear- sweeping the skies to clear a invader's progress would be then with the rest of these bombere. By this stratagem it some task lies before any army way across the Channel for its clogged and hampered, by Home divided hostile forces, long be is hoped to arouse defeatism up against that!
army are highly unpromising, to Guards as well as regular forces, fore they could lend one another
and he will not have the, heavy any real help. or peace-mindedness in the
If Eire is ever invaded by the It has to set forth upon tricky put it mildly.
The German fleet? It, too, artillery or large supplies of stricken British towns. Goebbels waters notorious for the vagaries.
may be increased, but still not ammunition necessary to force Germans, it will probably be with the iden of blocking our imagines that their inhabitants of their winds and tides.
by so much or at such a speed his way forward. will exclaim, "If the R.A.F.
The South of England is no sea routes across the Atlantic. It has to face the hidden perils had only stopped at home, this of mine and submarine.
It has never yet been equal to more favourable to him. It has As a preliminary to invasion of keeping the sea against the Bri- alterniations of open and closed Britain, it would be a waste of time and strength in the wrong would not have happened."
direction.
Risks They Run
Actually, nowhere is the desire to see Germany paid back It has to expose itself to the in her own coin stronger than attack of surface craft-against it is in the cities that have which it could not defend itself. suffered most from Nazi fright- fulness. These cities know that even if the R.A.F. never crossed the frontlers of the Reich, the enemy bombers would still do
and
And it has to lay itself open, while embarking, crossing and approaching the further shore,
bombing incessant Lo machine-gunning from the air.
Those perils are as great to- their best to wreak blind des- dny as they were last autumn. truction on British towns.
This is the weapon with which Hitler hoped to crush British morale. He must see by now that, like his other calculations concerning Britain, it is quite mistaken; but the ruthless use of the Luftwaffe will probably continue until the problem of the night bomber has been solved. When Hitler adopts the pose that his so-called reprisal raids aro a distasteful and unavoidable necessity ho decelves no one, not even him self, for no barbarity or in humanity is distasteful to the Chief Hun.
.Free
Free French In Tahiti
French
Even if they wero survived, and Hitler's army reached our shores-sea-siek and nerve-shat- tered-it would have to land on a coast long and carefully pre- pared for defence, bristling with obstacles, and manned by su perior forces.
These forces are fully trained, resolute, and eager to fight. They are armed with tanks, machine-guns, field guns, and heavy artillery,
Against these, the invaders could put only such light arma- ment as their frail craft could carry.
No, the invader would have practically no chance of oven getting ashoré. Such a "Battlo for Britain would begin and end headquarters in with a bloody massacre on our Sydney have announced plans to ¦ hanches, form a well-equipped "military fores of 3,000 Frea Fronchmen - in New Caledonin and Tahiti to carry on the war against Germany and Italy.
Even if the hundredth chance came off, and the Gormans 80-
as ours.
THESE MEN' are ready to carry out the Premier's words, They are taking up "We still fight on the beaches." "position" during defensive" training somewhere""on the
coast.
Wrong Way
ኖር
I believe, then, that, unless we relax our vigilance and shall not-the chances of a successful invasion of the coun- try on orthodox' lines are all but non-existent.
Surprises?
There may bo aurprise methods and surprise replies on our side. Of these, obvious- . ly, nothing useful can be said.
Outside of them, only purely political reasons could persuade any sensible military leader in Germany to make the attempt.
If political reasons force Hit- ler to try invasion, all the better. for us and all the worse for him. History is full of dire lessons on what happens when politics are allowed to control military
moves.
TO-MORROW:
Freda Utley
authority on Far
Eastern affairs, renders an up-to-date. analysis of the question—
What Will Happon
in the Far East ?