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March 17, 1940.:
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Face
How The
Long Will War Last?
ROM the very outset, the ultimate result of this war
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The
Stubbs Road,
Hongkong Telegraph.
Monday, March 11, 1940.
Wyndham St., Hongkong Telephone: 20015
.
All that is really in question is the probable length of time.· it will take to reach the inevitable end.
Not only had the chlefs of the German Army repeatedly warned the Fuehrer of the enormous military hazards of armed conflict with the Western Powers under existing conditions, but the German civil authorities also made the position plain.
Last April, for example, the official organ of the Reich Cham- ber of Economics published an article entitled, "How Long Could War Last?" pointing out that Germany did not command the ma- terial resources to fight a long war, and that her opponents had it in their power to prevent the conflict being a short one.
WHY did Hitler disregard all this expert counsel?
Because, during the several years of preparation for totalitarian war, Nazlem had so overstrained the economic system of the Third Reich that, at last, drastic measures had to be taken to divert attention from impending bankruptcy and restore the waning prestige of the Fuehrer.
They made prophecies:
J. L. GARVIN in the Observer: "If the absolute air supremacy we require is rapidly created, we shall come in sight of true peaco and the world's deliverance within six months.”
THE BRITISH WAR CABINET have based their policy "on the assumption that war will last for three years or more."
“AIR-MARSHAL SIR JOHN, SALMOND: "I think the war is not going to be so long as the last one, but I may be wrong."
DAVID LLOYD GEORGE, in the Sunday Express: "Three great and bravo nationa, armed with every device for the destruction of human life and civilisation . . . are about to hurl those diabolical contrivances at each other—for years,' This article is an impartial survey of Germany's economic position
by G. H. MORISON
He himself imagined that this might be accomplished by another lightning conquest which-assuming that Russia could be neu- tralised the Western Powers would not dare to contest.
Hitler made a mistake. Find- ing himself entangled in a life-and-death conflict which he is, powerless to shorten, he has now to face a long struggle in which the Western Powers will use every conceivable means of forcing Germany to spend her material resources without pro- fit.
Meanwhile, Germany will
cations Ordinance, 1030 Buch news only be able to hold her own at
THE prefix "pecial to the Telegraph" is used by the "fongkong Telegraph to Indicate news which is strictly copyright under the provisions of the Telecommuni- bears the indication "U" is received in Hongkong on the date of publication by the United Press Associations, who re- serve all rights and forbid, republication, either wholly or in part without previous arrangement
The Lie Weapon
THE British people cannot know too much about the principles that guide the Nazis in their propaganda.
all by rigid economy of what muter als she already has; she will not dare to risk anything until sure that every projectile will hit. At the same time, she will have to wage a desperate campaign to widen her basis of supply.
will be how to maintain supplies Hitler's most urgent problems of food, petrol, iron, textiles,
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of war thun bombs or torpedoes. like copper.
The
Nazis have exalted pro-
paganda to n position it never IT is scarcely conceivn-
ble that Germany
large war reserves of any
of
occupied in any other State. It has should have been holding any been for them a peacetime as well as a war-time weapon. They hoped with its help to win the present struggle in Europe without striking by German official publications.
who spent many years in Berlin working for important · American and British financial papers
"You have no right to any more food till you have lost another two stone.”
these vital necessities. This is fusing to let building proceed. evident from statements made
For instance, the annual re-
GERMANY held no ex-
of
tensive stocks
petrol, rubber, plastics-and, the assert,
edible fais come from a: coal buse.
Where the whole scheme' breaks down is that It has been found im~
10 possible obtain anything liko- enough of the bosle raw materials to keep all the new synthetic In-
dustries going. Staple Abre syn- thetically produced from wood is a. good serviceable fabric. But Goer- ing himself, in a recent public speech, had to admit that even now Germany is being forced to cut Alty per cent. more timber each year than grows in her forests.
culture
the
She cannot make up har defcit by increased import because there is a world-scarelly in timber. It would take "forty to fifty years of forest- said Goering, to increase timber output In Germany enough to meet present needs.
But the most catastrophic deflent is in con). Germany has vast coal de- posits, enough for all conceivable needs for some hundreds of years. But it is not available until it has been mined!
iwo as fuel. Every new power
--From GRINGOIRE, Paris. 800,000 able-bodied workers had more cool. deserted the countryside. Al-
Armaments and the new synthetic industries have · pushed - the demand. for coal until it has far outrun the supply. To make one ton of synthe- tie petrol four tons of coal ure- needed two as raw material and
works erected to electrify devours
to one According
recent official together, 300,000 milkcows had statement, Germany needs at once-
50,000 more coal miners. By the to be slaughtered because it end of this year she will need an- a blow, but in that they were dis-port for 1934 of the State-owned foodstuffs.
was impossible to obtain other 150,000 to keep going the new
synthetics Factories about appointed.
bank through which the German. This was revealed last June workers to milk them.
opened
ned. Government conducts transac by Reich Minister for Agricul- Unable to reorm and maintain im- Coal mining is à job to which-
Darre, when, port tions with German industry- ture Walther
enough food and raw a orker must be born. Attempts force other workers to tackle"
job soon
showed that their stocks of raw materials and that, despite superhuman ef- was to make synthetics and sub- To increase the output by about semi-finished products to the forts, Germany had only suc- materials from substances which can ing day of underground workers stitutes for foodstuffe and raw twelve and a half per cent, the work- value of 20,000,000,000 reichs- ceeded in raising from her own be obtained in big quantities within was orbitrarily lengthened from marks-about £1,000,000,000 at soil about 82 per cent. of the The Reich.
This was a normal state food she needed.
If they applied more, psychology, understanding of the mentality of other peoples, to their propagandist enterprises, they might be more successful. But the Germans were never good at understanding others, And even as directed at their own people the Nazis' propaganda has at times shown serious cracks and deficiencies..
A noteworthy example was the manner in which the Graf Spee's first and last brush with British:
We
of
to be
said that when Hitler came into opening the annual agricultural materials for current needs, Ger to
many embarked on the notorious this German industry held show at Leipzig, he declared Four-Year Plan. Its main object physique would not stand the strain.
power
par.
Towards the end of 1937 Der for making margarine, which is deur, but serves much the same pur- tage.
is enormously. them by reporting sick or by sabo-
man
That meant that the £1,000,- 000,000 worth of materials was gone.
避越 raw
material. Synthetic full.
GRIN AND BEAR IT
By Lichty
Industry soon ran out of coal.. When at last the railways resumed. normal trame industry pounced on the
goal on the dumps leaving the mines without any reserves.
eight and three-quarter hours. "At first there was a five per ceni. In- For example, aluminium can be of affairs needed to assure the In fats she was actually pro- extracted from
and crease in output, but this soon de- common clay smooth running of the whole ducing only about 50 per cent. used to replace copper in electre clined because the miners could not .ware. Aluminium ob- endure the long hours and evaded economic machine.
-and this included whale-oil technical
tained in this way Deutscher Volkswirt (the Ger- unobtainable during war.
Germany has not reserves of coal. pose us imported copper in time of Economist), then the Darre declared that very little wur. Woollen and cotton fibres An event which occurred last sum--
mer proves It. mouthpiece of Dr. Schacht, de- improvement could be expected could be synthesized from wood.
During mobilisolton and the in- warships CO., LTD.
was mishandled by clared: "We are consuming until farming was mechanised
last. PUT Goebbela's department. Had such more than we are producing, and electrified, because Ger- But the most important of Murch coal transport stopped, sines bungling been committed by the All our reserves of raw ma- many had not enough farm processes are based on the use of shut down when the dumps were British Government, should terials are exhausted. Unless labour. Since 1933, he said, coul never have heard the end of it from we change our policy we shall
head straight for disaster." the Hamburg gentleman. As it is,. the errors made. In announcing the closing activities of the Graf Spee dld more than anything else to shake neutral faith in the trustworthiness of news mada in Germany,
Goebbels's guiding maxim is, "The bigger the lie the better the pro- paganda." But there is danger in excess. A point is reached when no one can be expected to believe. A notable recent example was the German claim to have shot down about forty 'British aeroplanes In what has been described as the largest air engagement of the war. There was not nearly that number of British 'planes in the battle.
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There has never since then been any chance to replenish them. For immediately after- wards Austria and then Czecho- Slovakia were invaded-and the consumption of raw materials which have military significance immediately skyrocketed.
Worsel Both of these ter- ritories were great consumers of industrial raw materials for which Germany had to provide the supply, because when they became part of the Reich theso countries lost their chief sources
of foreign currencies and hence found their imports crippled.
The famine of raw materials in. the Reich then became so great that all materials had to Though the crudenesses of Ger-
be rigidly rationed. National man propaganda are often all too defence projects made prior apparent, the British people need to claims on all available supplies, be constantly on guard against it and national defence projects do not help to sustain. Imports; Some are strangely predisposed to believe that there must always be economically they are "useless." something in the malicious in-raided to obtain meagre supplico Even the graveyards were ventions or pervertions of Hamburg,of iron as scrap. House-build- "else: the Germans would not haveing almost ceased, though the said it. The point is that German masses of workers
wero propagandists will say anything clamouring for more and better which they think will produca | housing, accommodation.ALE abroad-or at home-the desired there had been any reserves, effect: Truth simply does not enter Hitler would not hava, risked into the caso...
widespread unpopularity by re-
-observa the shine on the too of the shoe protruding
Into your home,. Madam!!!
At Rostock the power works or- dered more coal. They were told there was none available. Repre- sentations were made in Berlin, Rostock pointing out that it coni: was not forthcoming within two days the town would be in darkness and Industry at a standstill.
In desperation Berlin' stopped ali sea-going vessels in Garman Baltic ports, ordered them to discharge their bunker coal into trucks, which were then linked up behind passen- ger trains and rushed to Rostocks to keep the power works going.
The same thing happened at the Magdeburg gasworks.
VERY one knows that petrol is the life-blood of warfare-without It mo--
modern torised vehicles, submarines, and airplanes cease fire.
To Oght a successful war, an army must be able to use up petrol with-"" out giving the question of supply a single thought. If any hitch occurs in feeding petrol to the war ma chines, decisive battles might easily be lost.
Authoritative estimates made in Germany Just before the war 'set available stocks at about a five- months peacetime consumption. It there a big-scale fighting," war.... time consumption might rise to two DT
three
or four times peace...: time consumption, even though rigid.
elvillon
consumption economy in enforced,
Cortuln milliary estimates of the petrol consumed by "Germany" in the Pollah campaign suggest that the Reich, used up over 40 per cent of the available stockal: If "this" is: trúcis PLEASE Turn To Pago 5.