THE HONGKONG" TELEGRAPH.
FROST FAIR ON THE THAMES IN 1683
There you may see the coachica swiftly run,
As if beneath the ice were toafers none. And alioats of people everywhere there be, Just like the herring in the brackish ved, And there the quaking watermen toill stand ve Kind master, drink you beer, or ale or brandy; Walk in, kind sir, this Vooth it to the chief."" Another cries, "fcre, master, they but acoff ge: Here is a dish of famous new-made coffee."
"A
The art of printing there was to be seen, Which in no former ape had ever been; And goldemlins' shops well furnished with plate; But they must dearly pay for't that would ha' ti. And coffee-houses in great numbers were Scattered about in this cold-freezing fatr, There might you sit down by a char-cole fire, And for your money, have your heart's desire, A dish of coffee, chocolate or tea.
-Woodent and doggerel verses from an old broadsheet in the British Museum,
H, the good Gabriel
he has been at it again, then!"*
So
they are saying over in France Just now. The reter- ence is not to the reputed "chief of the angelle guards," but to the worthy Abbé Gabriel, famed on the other side of the Channel as one of the most in- trepid long-shot weather fore- easters of all time.
This reverend selentist holds that the behaviour of the earth's almo- where is controlled by combined solar, lunar and planetary action,, and he has calculated that all the astronomical factors which could. conceivably influence it come to exactly the same conjunction and produce the same effects at inter- yals of 744 years.
The Abbe believes, too, that every 372 years (half of the main period) the heavenly bodies interact closely enough to bring about approxi- inately similar weather conditions here below.
Now. In 1564-03 Europe suffered a winter of historle severity. From Just before Christmas until early
-To-day's Thought. NATURE is the master of tulents: pentus is the master of Nature.
J. Q-HOLLAND.
in March there was almost uninter- rupted frost. Even the biggest and swifiest rivers were ice-bound, and the Thames became, in the words of a contemporary dlarlat, "as solid as a rock."
Snowdrifts put a stop to all trame; corn supplies ran short; cattle and sheep perished by thou- sands for lack of fodder; and, alto- gether, Europe had a thin line in more senses than one.
That was
372 years ago. Therefore, argues the Abbé, we should get much the same from the coming winter.
•
tween 140,000 and 150,000 names on the registers of Britain's em- ployment exchanges,
Let
examine the alleged grounds for anxiety: it is easy enough to test the Abbo's claims.
812
Seven centuries ago thermome~ ters and barometers had not been invented, and no regular weather records were kept, but if we hunt through ancient
and diaries archives we shall come across oc- casional entries which will, servo our purpose. We find, for in- stance, that England endured a great frost in 1154, and another, lasting from Christmas to Feb- ruary 2, in 1170-77,
According to the Abbé Gabriel's theory, there ought to have been a. recurrence of great frosts In 1898 and 1920-21-744 years on- wards from 1154 and 1170-77. There was, in fact, nothing of the sort, The winters of 1897-98, 1898-09, and 1920-21 were all pre-
Unluckily for him, there is no copyright in these theories. He was forestalled in his prediction by another French scientist, M. Cas- alopte, who got in his warning six months ago. This gentleman de- voted a whole book to detailing the expected parallel-with-1504-05-Hedominantly mild went so far as to prophesy that the frost will last for 68 days, and that January 7, 1937, will be the coldest of them all.
These soothsayings have given rise to a good deal of apprehen- alon on the Continent, and even here in England many people are feeling a little uneasy about them. The last thing we want just now is a really hard winter. We have been spared one sinen 1028-20, when, according to an ometal esti- mate made by the Minister of Labour the severe weather was responsible for an increase of be-
THE
Clearly, then, the weather docs not repeat itself with any ap proach of regularity after· 744 years. How about 372 years---half as long?
Delving into the musty manu- scripts once more, we learn that In 1541 there was so great drought that the river Treat be came a straggling brook, and that the Thames was dry at London Bridge except when the sea water came up at high tide. Both in that
MONDAY, DECEMBER
Will it be a HARD WINTER?
by E. L. Hawke
(Secretary of the Royal Meteorological Society)
year and in 1840 the summer was extremely hot and dry. ·
Did the same thing hap-. pen 372 years later? It dia not. In 1912 we had one of the wettest summers within memory; in 1913 the period from June to August, though deficient in rain, was de- cidedly cool.
In this country, meteor- ologista find nó need to con- cern. themselves about, the moon and planets when try- ing to get a line on the trend of coming wenther. ***O, swear not by the inoon, the inconstant moon." says Julletin Shakespeare's play. She, in the way some women have, was judging by ap- pearances and jumping to conclusions. It is really the sun that should be accused of inconstancy; the moon's seeming changefulness is, of course, merely a matter of light and shadow. Just na large scale variations, in solar activity were almost certainly responsible for the alternating "ico ages" and warm periods of prehistoric time. so minor variations in the same factor must be invoked to account for year-to-year weather vagaries at the present day.
Our luminary in subject to more or less severe, internal disturb- ances. affecting its output of radiant energy, and there is no doubt that the earth's atmosphere is profoundly influenced thereby. Among the outward symptoms of functional interlor trouble, with the sun as with ourselves, are spots on the face.
It is by careful and long-con- tinued study of this solar eczema In its relation to the weather all
over the world that we can best attack the problem of foreshadow- ing the general character of future seasons.
At irregular Intervals, averaging Just over 11 years, the sun quietens, kdown inside, and becomes nearly Buch Treo from facial eruptions. perlods are enlled "suncpot mimium Stylistical analyEIN. --- shows that the fourth winter after a sunspot minimum is particularly Hablo to be more or less severe in England. This has happened nine times out of twoivo since 18002 in the remaining three instances the general level of temperature from December to February was about normal.
Now, there was a sunspot mini- mum Inte in 1933, and as the com- ing winter is the fourth since then, the odds are 3 to 1 that it will be on the cold side. The memorably bitter war-time winter of 1916-17 camo at this phase of the color "cycle," and so did the historic winter of 1813-14, when the last "Frost Fair was held on the ice- bound Thames, and London's aver- ago temperature was below the freezing-point for three months on
end.
There is one chance in six that the approaching-season may bring us something quite out of the ordi- nary in the way of shivers; but there is one chance in four, that 11 ̧! will be just about normal.
Most probably, we shall have the usual medley of cold and mild weather, with the former in the as- cendant. For the alarmist warn Ings blazoned abroad by the French prophets of woe let us preserve a pelite scepticism."
OUR BRITISH CROSSWORDS
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13
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1936..
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7,000
2nd Jan. Marseilles, Havre, London, Hamburg,
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......
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17,000 25th Doc Shanghai & Japan. 6,000--20th-Dec-Shanghai & Japan. "Ird" "Jøn. Shanghai & Japan.
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"HAKOZAKI MARU," having arrived from the above ports, Consignees of Cargo are hereby in- formed that their Goods are being landed and placed at their risk in the Hongkong and Kowloon Whart and Godown Company's Godowns at
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Goods not cleared by the 12th De- cember, 1936, will be subject to rent. Damaged packages must be left in the-Godowns for examination by the Consignee's' and the Co.'s representa- tives on any Tuesdays and Fridays at 2.30
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7th Dec, 6th--Jan- 6th Fab.
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ACROSS
May indicate the presence of spirit.
3 Twins and twins and then some. 8 Yes, brat elves away the secret
thus.
10 Common, or garden bird.
essential vessel in a brewery.
11 Foam.
12
The fellow who gives a lot of check.
10 Is it the equivalent of O-Kay?
17 A character in dve of Shakes
peare's plays.
19 Good, this, for the handsome. 21 When weeds have a rest.
23 Bounce.
24 Soft for. a musician
25 Mark the place.
28 The last post?
28 Has A.1 Latin, though he doesn't
30
speak it.
dad anything, that will make it continuous (three words, 3, 3, 5).
31 It is this minus one letter..
DOWN
1 L. bores rubes (anng.) (two
words, 6, 6).
2 Plays about Ilke, Staffordshire
workers,
3 A quadrangle without any angle... 4 It's very weak, put a drop in, 5 Frull, roughty triangulor
section. ₫ and most of it then is this.
7 No one could call her tidy; she no often has a litter about her Asking for this South Sea Island reminds one of Oliver Twist
13 Members of many churches.
nough, why -14-It moms CIORE***
bring in Scotland Yard? 18 Stock
19 Very neat this, you'll adimit, for
a service attendunt.
20 Cook by heat with water,
21 Showing an inclination in a certain direction, and anishing suitably.
22 Changing his post as a Greck.
Leacher,
26 Mend the holes and swear in a
Indylike way.
27 Sweet or acid.
38 This one lands right in the
middle.
Saturday's Solution. MOULD POISONING |0|| NAKENMP;
LEADING BLUCHER ERFOMAN SANG'
8 UMEPIECE ABLE T■ E_WKK NONE L■ DUING SECEDER IN HINDI-END CELE 199 İG LUIT UNSCREW A
[in] [BUMP BOOTY "GRIG' UUNDO SO BI BI RAU, FIXTURE, ALABAMA EES■■NG RON_R DATED
81 DETRACE
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