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ADDRESS BY PROFESSOR ROBERTSION.
TELEGRAPH. WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 10, 1932.
tion also fails most heavily upon these two states, whose national budgets would, in the circum- stances, suffer a considerable net loss of revenue.
The Young Scheme.
but has
TU
not
gone HO
years. conference with the, readjustment REPARATIONS AND on account of reparation proper, borrowing during these
that, is, over and above what she, Further, to the extent to which hor of burdens as its sim.
What has been done, therefore, DEBTS.
has to pay out again to Great borrowing was on short term, sho Britain and the U.S.A. Great was creating an unsound position is in the frat place to call the
the on
policy an- for herself, which would be a Special Advisory Committee. ounced in the Balfour note, source of danger to her if ocono- férred to above. This Committee receives just what is sufficient to mic confidence for any reason bo hae reported, and, after a care. cover her abilities to America, came shaky.
ful examination of Germany's when her receipts from France
Actually, the stream of foreign trade position, hor budget, and her and other debtors are added. Italy. lending stopped as a result of the place in the generally depressed KOTARY TALK. Belgium and other states receive American stock market boom and economy of the World, has
aums which allow of small sur its subsequent quidation. Her only stated Germany's inability to thereby transfer the conditional part of industrial position "Reparations and War Debts" pluses.
This Is a very rough and formed the subject of a most Jueld
further developed, and the catas-next July, and interesting address which was sketchy account, but it la nuclent weakened, and as the world crisis the annuity in the year beginning delivered by Professor Rt. Ilobert for our present purpose to keep in trophic fall in prices rapidly in- far as to "draw the attention of mind that the bulk of German Retensified Germany's economic ays the Governments to the unprece
the son at the weekly meeting of the Ilongkeng Rotary Club, which was paration payments goes ultimately tem, burdened as it was with the dented gravity of the crisis, Thie bukl
load of Reparation indebtedness, magnitude of which undoubtedly Messrs. Lane Crawford's to France and the U.S.A. in
exceeds the relatively short dle- restaurant Festerday, under the involves the further consequence was gravely threatened. Chairmanship of Rotarian W. E. that any sealing down or cancella- The nationals of other countries, pression envisaged in the Young
Shenton The Chairman read It leitor
themselves weakened by the world Plan."
To Prevent Dlaneter. received from Chang Kl. No. 1
depression, and nervous about the draw in their short-term balances in Behind these words Hes the un- "Boy," of Mesars, Lane Crawford's
situation in Germany, began to restaurant, thanking Rotary Club
that country, and it looked as if mistakable conviction that some- postpone- members for their generous
a new flight from the mark was thing more than mere Chinese New Your collection of
Germany's ment is necessary to prevent disas $188. The letter stated that the It may be further noted here about to take place.
in com- ter. "We appen", they said, "to Hift was appreciated very much that the annuities which Germany budgetary position was,
under
the Young mon with that of practically every the Governments on whom the re and that the "boys" would always has to pay
into cond other state, insecure, and deficit sponsibility for action rests do their best to give good service scheme are divided
which will bring an and try to make the Rotary tinational and unconditional, or post-threatened on that side also; there permit of no delay in coming to
n close connexion decisions and ponable enjoyable and successful.
non-post ponable is, of course, Rotarian Roberston. Professor parts. The unconditional part of between her budgetary instability amelioration of this grave crisis that Economics
allke." at the University, each annuity is an absolute and and the wasting sickness which had which weighs so heavily
It seems unlikely and formerly of Edinburgh Uni- irrevocable obligation, under the attacked her industrial life.
nction will be taken before May; said: The present world terms of the Hague agreement.
the British government has, how- version is without parallel in
The other part may be postponed, modern story. At its com.
in each case for not more than two mencement people spoke of the years, if it can be shown that trade cycle, and the rhythm, the Germany's exchange and economie rise and fall, of industrial ne-stability will be endangered by tivity. But the economic sickness the payments. which has befallen us has passed In this event, the initiative lles
The Hoover moratorium, which? What will finally emerge from beyond the point at which theories with Germany herself, who may
of a followed on Dr. Bruening's striking all this welter of debt and depres of the trade cycle are appropriate. apply for the convocation
We are forced to ask whether Special Advisory Committee ap- publle avowal of Germany's post- sion it is impossible at this jane-
Inter- tion, WBS 21 the disease is not a wasting alek-pointed by the Bank for
attempt to prevent
ture to say. The great difficulty the way of adjustment neas, duc 10 deeprooted
Causes national Settlements, Itself an off-collapse. It lifted from Germany in
in the cancellation lles It was and all the other countries which which, if not removed, will render spring of the Young plan.
of divergence of interests among the recovery impossible. Are there this Special Advisory Committee were linked up in the nexus
the any factors In present-day which met, on Germany's offelal inter-governmental debt, a burden Interested governments. It is al- world which preclude the hope application, in December last, and that could not have been met: this ways the same; allies during a war It did not, are united in endeavour, for their that an upward movement from issued the report which is called was to be for a year. the trough of depression can take the Basis Report.
by
itself, solve all Germany's pro main and immediate Interests are hiems. The short-term position of the same; after the war, their in- place? Is there some one element,
Germany was still thoroughly un- nt group of elements, present in the modern world, but unknown in
sound; her exchange stability was terests tend to depart more and
of
The Hoover Moratorium.
erlbed the desperate nature of our ense? Is it due to the maldistri- bution of gold, to tariff barriers of an unprecedented height, to the disproportion between the prices of primary goods and those of manufactures, to the "stickiness" of production costs especially in the matter of money wages, to the re-dietribution of the world's lending power into unaccustomed hands, to the burden of Inter-minent financial collapse. governmental indebtedness7
the
Isolating War Debts.
endeavour among
seems
Default Practically Certatu.
Model No. 110
LATEST DANCE. HITS
IN BRUNSWICK
to
on all
To make a long story ahort, ever, reiterated its belief that the funds were flowing outward from problem can only be properly solv-
golded by n cancellation of all Kepara
and Governmental war. Germany, the Itelchabank's was being drained, the mark ex- tlons change was wobbly, and default debts.
Prophesy Impossible. was practically certain.
of
agreed settlement.
claims
Some months before this, how past erlues, to which may be as-ever, the Hoover Moratorium: hadi still threatened by withdrawals more widely from each other, and suspended for one year the whole the London Conference thereupon, this reacts on the possibility of an
the. ecries of inter-governmental pay- which met in July, added to
Great Britain's position is clear; inter- moratorium of ments included under Reparations Henver and War Debts; with the excep- governmental debts, the so-called cancellation is the remedy she favours; she has already adopted tion of a sum (amounting to nome Standstill agreement, whereby com- £7,000,000) necessary for the ser- mercint short term balances to the policy under which this measure be in her industrial and would vice of the Dawes and Young amount of Rome £300,000,000 were economic interest, and would pro-
for eix loans. The moratorium, that is, to remain in Germany
doce no
her adverse effect on outside the Young months. was something
budget. plan, and was prompted by the
World Situation.
Balfour Note. desire to save Germany from Im! Since these arrangements were
The Balfour Note may have been What had happened was Roma-entered into, there has been little thing like this. Germany had for sign of Improvement in the world issued at an unfortunato juncture, several years, since the inaugura situation. England, with an un- and the manner of its appearance but it did mean, on Great Britain's My purpose today is to laolate tion of the Dawes plan, been en-sound short-term position, and with may have had untoward results;
last-named of these In an abled to meet her payments under much of her normally realisable
assets tied up In Germany, was part, cancellation of all she stood her legal by enforcing to assess Its place that schem». She had, however.
her former allies. the factors of economic during the same period, been her forced off the gold standard. World disturbance. In Isolating war-in rowing heavily abroad, both on prices have continued to fall; there France's position is different; she debtedness in this way I must not long nul on short term: this bar has been a fall of 80 per cent. in holds fast at present to the in- he thought to imply that the re- rowing was, of course, not govern the wholesale price level in the vialability of the Young Plan; the moval of this burden would solve mental borrowing, but commercial, space of two years, a fall unpre devastation she suffered calls for over and all our problems, or even that its Much of it, doubtless, had been redented in history.
reparation payments Instead of recovering; Germany's existence was one of the initial applied to productive ends which,
to pay above what she requires causes of depression. It
given normal conditions, would industry, like that of her neigh Great Britain and America; can
a depressed likely, however, that we cannot
lead at some future date to greater bours, remains in
cellation or scaling down would emerge from that depression un capacity to meet the increased bur-state: her finances are kept in or mean for her a sacrifice, and a con- វ៉PSN the burden is lifted or
and der only by the most rigid considerable item on the credit side of elen of debt thus created: lightened, and it is certain that Germany had also, during the same trol and heavy taxation; it has her budget (some $17,000,000 at the events in Germany last sum.
period, been herself applying the borome evident that it is quite im- present) would disappear or be re- mer, which accentuated our diff-vinge or hur own people to possible for her to resume
pay-duced. culties and led straight to our capital construction. own crisis in Great Britain, were inextricably linked up with the existence of the German Repara- tion lability, which, in its turn, was, to a great extent, determined by inter-governmental indebted ness among the allied countries.
There is no time to go into a detailed account of the various rettlements which, taken together, constitute the problem of Repara- tions and Debts. Briefly Ger- many's liability rests upon the Your scheme as finally adopted at the Hague early in 1930. According to this, she is called upon to pay. for a series of years ending in 1988, certain annuities, varying In amount, but commenc ing about £85,000,000 and reaching at their maximum £120,000,000.
Reparations Proper.
These annuities in reality con- Atitute what may be called repar- ations proper (compensation for war devastation) plus an amount onch year sufficient to cover the recipients' obligations on their own war debts. Among European countries, Franco for 37 years receives a considerable surplus
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ments of Reparations next July. She believes that her chances of An Unsound Position.
ever recovering are bound up with American public opinion, if it in But the fact remains that her a removal of the burden of in- truly reflected in Congress, 18 payments under the Dawes scheme debtedness, but the times are not against cancellation or reduction of
(Continued on Pann 10.) international for an her foreign propitions were exceeded by
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