I am confident any attempt on the part of the local farmers to take the Opium Monopoly into their own hands would fail.
It is only the most influential men in the secret societies among the Chinese who are found willing to undertake the responsibility as it requires all the power and interest which these societies possess to protect the farmer from the illicit preparation & sale of Opium.
Fire peculiar circumstances of security led me to object to the 4 year leasing, not being in any great extent in the dark, but still I cannot see that the Govt will gain any advantage by letting the Opium Farm for more than one year at a time. It must be borne in mind that these farms are always in the hands of the Chinese. During a failure of the Opium crop, or any other circumstances by which the farmer loses to such an extent that he is unable to carry the farm at the rental fixed, he will at once petition for either a reduction of the rent or to be relieved from his bargain, and it would be difficult not to accede to his petition in one way or other, as his alternative would be the Bankruptcy Court of which the Chinese are not slow to take advantage.
On the other hand, if the farm increases in value, the farmer will gain the entire benefit during the lease. Had the Opium Farm been let in one lease for the past four years, as is now proposed, the Govt must have gained considerably.
It is not likely that any offer made in 1887 would have been equivalent to 50 per cent upon the rental of 1886. The increase in the four years during the present lease will not be less than from $120,000 to $150,000.
There is every reason to assume that the sale of Opium will continue to increase in Hong Kong. The number of coasting vessels belonging to the Chinese is largely on the increase.
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