BRITAIN BEGINS.
THE RAISING OF THE INITIATIVE.
"A Studied Analysis of the War Situation.
The following most interest- ing article on the war outlook in contributed by Mr. Frank EL. Simonds to the American Review of Reviews 2-m
1. The Great Change.
THE HONGKONG TELEGRAPH, SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER
1916.
believe that the cocoentrated and circles or salienta met, which is about this: Tegether the French line. They had, of course, the continuing attack on all fronts at the Somme River, as they and British have drivas a wedge old forts and they had relied on will begin to wear down German advanced they would be far in into the German lines. At its them. The most expensive thing power of resistance, tax German the rear of the German troops at base, which reata on the old front, to the French in the whole Ver man-power beyond its limits and the extreme points of the saliente, this wedge is aizteen miles wide, den operation was restoring their establish clearly the ultimate that is, west of Bapaume in the Four miles east, between Estress line, that is, building a new line ontcome of the struggle if it in Anore Valley, in the northern and Longueval, it is ten miles behind the ons that had been prolonged to its natural sad.......... salient, and in Boye, Chaulnes, wide
FOOCHOW SHIPPING,
The Report for Last Year.
broken. It was expensive be The Oastoms report for Foo
11
We are at the beginning of Noyon, and before Soimoda in the At its point, ju's opposite cause the Germans had to be chow for 1918 contains the four months of fighting, more southern. If the Allied advance Peronne, it is rather less than held back while it was being following: bloody, more terrible than this continued the Germans in these two miles wide. This representadone. As it was, Douaumont has yet seen. At its close the extreme points would presently the greatest advance the Allies was lost and the situation was cleared at the Maritime Quaiores The total tonnage entered and Allies believe that Germany will have to retreat to avoid being cut have made since the trench war critical for some daye. Not im- It was always certain that know herself beaten and knowing of by the troops advancing acres began and the French have possibly the German resistance during the Fair 1916 amounted Germany and Austria would herself beaten be ready to discuss their rear and lines of communi- covered about the same distance and counter-attacking now into 998,058 tons. Of the steamer ultimately have to stand on the peace on the basis that peace can cation. This would happen very before Peronne in ten days that covering the preparation of entries, 638,000 tons, 492,000 defensive anless they disposed of be had. The four months will soon in the case of the Bapanme the Germans covered befors Ver reserve line, but this is mere om were under ordinary rules at least one of all their foss before cont Germany far more than a salient because it is very small; dun in considerably more than a conjecturs.
and 44,000 under Inland Steam Britain was ready, It was always million casualties, they will cost it would not happen for a very hundred. At Longueval and
As all events we see clearly tanpage amounted to 6,046 tons, Navigation Rules. The mailing The last days of the second certain that they would ultimate- | Austria not less than half a long time in the case of the Noy-Basatin-le-Posit the British are that the French and British ad- of which 4,582 tons were Japanese. ly loss the initiative unless, while many. Britain and Russia have on salient, because it is very inside the German second line rance has got to a point where it The sailing craft, although under year of the world conflict saw a they possessed it, they turned it the men to pay this price, while large and the Allies would have for the first time in trench war is a grave threat to German a foreign lig, are of pure Chinese momentous change. For the first
into decisive victory over France and Italy will make to ont deeply in order to mensos fare. Together the French and positions to the north and south type, being mostly the property time the initiative on all fronts Basis or France. And their material contribution. But the the Germans. passed to the enemies of the Cen- failure has been absolute, because real test must be in the casualty
British have taken opwards of at Bapaume, Boye, and Chan'nem. of nativos of Formoen, and they If the Germans were compelled 23,000 prisoners and many guns. We see that the French have been are employed between this port tral Powers. In the Eut, the all their foes are now on foot, lists, in the capacity to bear them to abandon the Bapaume salient This is smaller bag than the rather sharply checked and that and Santuao and Formow. The West, and the South, German and determined and powerful. The on the two sides of the battle they would have to retire from Champagne-Artois attack netted the British are still advancing. British flag leads the way in ton- Austrisa troops stood on the last chance to win the war in the front. The warof exhaustion has their first and second and pose and considerably smaller than the In point of fast the latest Ger- ange with entries of 198,000 tons, defensive, catnumbered and sensfeld ended for the Central at last reached the decisive point, sibly their third line trenches Verdun bag of the Germans. ibly recoiling under furious a Powers with the failure before And it is to the war of exhaustion over a front from Arras to the
man bulletins claim" slight suc- then follow the Uhinese, 182,000 Now the effect of driving in ceas for a German counter-attack tons, and the Japanese, 140,000 "saults of Russian, Italian, British,
rather than to the war of position Somme, rather more than thirty this wedge has been this: The in Bisches. We see that if they tons. Owing and French troops. Even in the
It was the recognition of this that we must turn to find a smiles. If they were compelled to British at Longueval are at least get a little farther north the Europe, the tonnage under the to the war in Balkans formidable Allied bom-
fact that prompted the Germanswer to the riddle of the world leave their Noyon salient, they ten miles farther east than the Bapanne salient will go and if German Leg, which stood far bardments seemed to forensat an
the would have to give up at least Germans in the extreme point of the French" get a little south 42,000 tons in 1013, was.. ica. Nowhere wave about Verdun.go. It was the realization of prios and hold? This is the fifty or sixty miles of front and a the Bapsums salient. They are | Chaulnoe and Roye will have to Under Inland Steam Navigation attack upon Bulgaris and Salon proposals for peace two monthe war. Can Germany pay
now without importanos, did the Germans take the lead and bare the results were immaterial, as they were inconsiderable,
Not lose significant was the fact that at last the great British army showed itself ready for the operation which had long been expected of it and twice, at Neave Chapelle and Looe, de manded of it in vain. These lines are written too poon after the opening of the British attack to
warrant any estimate of the fight- ing quality the new armies displayed, but after nearly three and the blanders of Loos and Neave Chapelle have not been repeated,
weeks they are still going forward
Looking backward we see now the whole great war drams un- folded in three acts: The Ger-
Verdun.
Let us begin by clearing the ground. The Allied cffensive overbalanced will end in one of three things; (1) It will shortly be checked. If it is checked, then it is of no real value; it is to be compared with the German attack on Ypres in 1915 or on Verdun this year, with The Allies expect, that the the Allied offensives in Cham Germans and the Austrians will pagne or Artois. (2) It will result no longer be able to replace in a sudden break in the German casualties a the British, the lines, wholly changing the face
rather it is with her foes. II. What the. Alles Expect.
rt
+1
the
this foot that dictated the rejec- whole question noW. tion of the proposals by the 111. The Battle of the Somme, including their territory nearest but north, that is, toward
very considerable area beside, endeavouring to advanos, not east go.
Rules the entries and clearances Allies. We are now entering,
Looking now to the large feld, together amounted to 88,240 tone, In this article I purpose to dis- to Paris.
Bapaume, not Peronne, and the what may happen if the British being 76,606 under the Chinese a new phase of the war the cuss the Somme battle, the first Now look at the map again and effect of their advanos in thresten- are able to push on-and iris to flag and 11,634 ander fourth act as I reckon it, counting step in the Allied offensive, in you will see that the whole Gering the lines of communication of the British that we must look for Japanese fag. These Tomain are the Marne, the Russian campaign, far greater detail than I have man position in France is in it the Germans northeast of them. the burden of the achievement, all small and trade to Shacheng, and the Verdun operations se the discussed other operations be self a salient, a huge salient, If they can get to Bapaume, for the French did their share Higghwa, Obuanchow sto. To other three. Germany has failed cause I desire my readers to bave coming west from the Mense which is rather more than five at Vardan: Some twenty miles the pouts visited was added this
a little glimpse of the future as and bending north to conquer her foes; they are now
at the miles das north of Longueval, almost dug eset of Bapaume is year Auhai. Of the ships ander men and well as the past of the movement | Oise pear sufficiently strong in
Noyor. Bezos if then the Germans will have to the town of Cambrai, which gave ordinary rules, three companies munitions to undertake the con- now on foot,
the British and French were able pome out of the whole salient and its name to Smith-Dorrien's battle trade here constantly; one, under guest of Germany. For two
to make a very deep cut into the form a new line running between on the most criticial day of the the Chinese flag to Shanghai, years German preparation and
German lines, advancing as they Peronne and the outskirts of Grest Betreat, although the going and coming with ir efficiency have
are from west to east, the Gor-Arras, which they bold. action was fought some miles to regularity; second, under the numbers, wealth, and ses-power,
mans would presently have to On their side the French are the east. Cambrai is the junction British flag, to Hongkong and the but there is no longer any ad-
leave all Northern France south now endeavouring to strike south, point of two railroade of utmost intervening ports, arriving and tage of preparation with her
of the Meuse end the Belgian not east. They are several miles importance to the Germans, the departing with great regularity, frontier, to avoid being cut off farther esat then the Germans in main line of communication of though not on an advertised by this attack, which would move Chaulnes and Roye and they are the Germans between Lille and schedule; a third line, under the through their west front and striking at the communications the Oise. If the British could Japanese flag. trades to the across their rear..
of these troops. They are fight lay hands upon Cambrai, then it Formosan ports and then north- ing to get possession of several would be fairly certain that the ward to Shanghai, - Teingtan, IV. What has Happened.
little villages, Barleux and Beray- Germans would have to come out Tientsin, and Dairen. Daring Having thus roughly skotched en-Santerre among them. They of all their line from Soissone to the yest now under review a few examine what actually did bapne, which is on the other side of would be gravely threatened. In Chinese flags came in on their Fen and then use the material the Summe from them, surround- addition Cambrai is the centre of way northward from Swatow and thus required to explain the ed by marshes and dominated by number of national highways, Amoy. The first large voean- fatore.
bille to north and east.
even more important to the Ger-going ateamer to call for tes was On or about July 1 the French If the French sare able to get manu than the railroads.
the P. and O. E.s. Nellore, which and British troopron either bank south a mile or two on their side It is fair to conclude, then, that unfortunately took the ground on of the Somme, facing east and of the salient the Germans will the ultimate British objective is going out, and no was delayed. holding the front before the little bave to leave Chaulace and prob- Cambrai. They will be twenty Later some "Blue Fannels" town of Albert, enddenly attacked ably Roye, this will mean giving miles distant from it if they get called and others of other lines. the German lines. The attack over a good many miles of French Bapaume. They are twenty-five One oil-tank ship was loaded with was preceded by many days of territory and may even involve as it stands, but this is from the tes for America. Being war time, terrible bombardment along the quitting Noyon. But they can mouth. From the northwest they freights raled high during she whole front, the orthodox prelade stand behind the Somme from are only twenty miles away now year, The quotation for London to an attack in trench war. Peronne to Ham and then across in Arras. From both Arras and was 501, 6d. in January, and Ills, The attack was launched upon the hills to the Oise at Chauny. Albert, which they hold, national at the end of the year; for Genos a front of sixteen miles, about They will not be threatened with highways convergenpon Cambrai and Trieste, 493. Öd, in Jan. ; and twice as broad so the first Ger- envelopment, that is, they can and we may look to see an effort 134. to Geros, and 1548. to man aitseking front at Verdun cape unless they hang on be to reach the town both ways.
Naples before the year was out. and two miles shorter than the yond all resson and this is alter-
Less than twenty miles from Coast freightasiso rose 30 per cent. French attacking front in Cham-ly unlikely. The most that in in the French position before Per page. The front was pretty immediate prospect for the Allies, one is the considerable oily of evenly divided between the if they can keep on, is to shorten St. Quentin. This is also an French and the British. their own lines by turning the important railroad and highway
1:
a
man effort to dispose of Franos Russians, and the Italiana patent of the Western war. (3) It will hat might happen, let us jare not attempting to get Peroc- Arras and their position in Lille coasters.under the British and which ended in the failure at they can. Russia's man supply is continue as a long, steady pound- Marne and the stalemate in inexhaustible; she has already ing, with slow but are gains by Flanders: the German effort to proved this. Britain is only be the Allies, following in soma dispres of Rusia, which termin- ginning to draw heavily on here. fashion the analogy of Grant's ated in the Pinsk Marshes and Italy hee made no draft to speak advance from the Bapidan to the terminated in failure; the German of. But France, like Germany James, which failed of any de- effort to exhaust France, morally and Austris, is approaching, ifcisive success, but did result in as well as physically, which came she has not reached, that point material gains of ground and to naaght in April, when the where she can no longer send ultimately exhausted the man. French were able to repalas the fresh men to the front to replace power of his foe. most desperats of the German losses and each casualty therefore assaults upon the Mense lines diminishes the total of men in
there.
the line.
The Allies believe that the
Germans and Austrians are hold-
come,
7
Let us
Now if the movement is soon checked, there is no use to die- and thereafted to hold them to a
case it. The chances of a Bud- struggle without importance or
den break are small; it may issue.
there is always the pos- Three times Germany, woring lines far too extended for sibility, but it is too remote to rounded by enemies richer in their numbers. Le did this at warrant specalation here. men, in money, in all material Richmond and lost his army. There remains the third pos- resources, and having absolute Napoleon did this in the Eastern sibility. The Allies may slowly control of the ses, strove to break German campsiga and suffered bat steadily pash the Germans the circle of fire about her and defeat, which turned out to be back over considerable ground. dispose of one of her foes, as fatal. The Allies believe that by This is what I personally look Napoleon disposed of Austria at steady and concerted attacke for. The question of success or Austerlits, Prussia at Jeas, and upon all fronts they will present failure will be decided on the Russia at Frisiland in the first 7 wear the Germans and Aas price the Allies pay for their pre- In the firet phase the French Germans out of Bapaume, Boye, centre and if the French could wards of four miles before Ver- and fortunate phase of his great trians down to the point where gress and their capacity to con- were far more successful than the Chaulnes, and Noyon and recover get into it, all the German posi dan in as many days; they have career as Emperor. Three times they must shorten their lines or tinue to pay the price. Thean British. La less then a week they some hundreds of miles of French fans to the south would go and not got much more than two she failed. Under her blows court disaster. Bat to shorten things are problematical but at had got forward four miles and soil.
the Germans would have to come miles forward since then, that is, France and Russia staggered, the lines is to confess defest. To all events we can now examine they soon expanded this to six,
Y, What may Happen. back close to the Belgian frontiers, in four months. The French. but did not fall. Meantime there evacuate France or Poland is to the ground upon which they have They approached the town of was left to Britain the time lose the war absolutely, because chosen to attack. We can ex- Peronne, captured the suburb of moment that the French present probably retiring from the Cham- south of Peronne and are not Bow sume for the giving op Laon and La Fere and have been sharply checked to the to make her new armies, to these are the priser Germany amine the progress that has so far Baches and Hill No. 97, which ly succeed in pashing south, the pagne Plain north of the Aisne. making any effort to advance. arm her millions and put them holds against her lost colonies been made. We can see clearly commande Peronne and the British north, for the few miles
We may then take Cambrai toward the east; in fact, they ara on the firing-line. They are now and ocean commerce.
enough what the Allies are aim-valley of the Somme between the that will compel the Germans to and St. Quentin as the probable resisting strong counter-attacks, The Germans assert that they ing at, both in their immediate French and the town. On the go back behind Bapaume and objectives of the Allied offen-ive, in Bisches. Almost two years ago there can hold their present lines inde- front and behind this. We can north bank of the Somms they behind the Somme from Peronne insofar as it is aimed at objectives. WAN just sach a chance for the finitely, that they can impose fareoset what will happen if they reached Harde-court, four miles to Ham. The German line will Its main purpose is to strive for of time to concentrate men sicos The Germans have had plenty Allies to soiss the initiative as losses so great that the Allies are able to carry out their plans from their starting place, and then run pretty straight south the exhaustion of the German they found out from what quar they have now taken. Defeated will not be willing to pay the as they have laid them.
came to the edge of Olery, which from Arras through Peronne and reserves." If the French and ter the storm was coming. We at the Marne, while her Austrian price. This the argument of the First of all, why did the French is perhaps fve. It is binted that Ham to the Oise, either at Noyon, British can cover the twenty may see the whole operation ally was routed at the Ban and South, proclaimed in the last and British select the Somme the Germans did not expect any as now, or at Chauny, a few miles miles that lie between them and checked in a few days. We may the Bug, Germany seemed in a neweraper printed in Richmond, Valley so the point of attack? It attack from the French and were to the northeast. What then? either of these two objectives the ace it change to the Verdun type desperate posture. Bat only which wet from the prem fell into is not possible to answer this taken by surprise. This may If the Germans have construct-Germans will have to quit much of foot-by-foot advance at terrifio France of all the Allies had been the hunde of the victorious question wholly, We do not explain the larger French success; ed a reserve line somewhere along of France. If the British get cost. This is what the Allies even mesenrably ready. there Northern troops that entered the know whether they discovered it may have been due to better this position, the Allies will have Cambrai, they may have to expect. Bat the objectives are ware Iacking to the British all town. The parallel may be some weakness there, or at the organisation, but at all events the to begin all over again. They exscunts all Francs now held by plain. If they are attained, oor- troops save the few survivors of wholly inexact: oonosirably the least decided this was the weak- French did their work first and will have to begin as they began them between the Argonne and tain things will happen and the the first army, worn to tatters Germans can hold, But this is est point in the German line. did it effectively. They were before. They will be in the Lille. As it stands the Allies, to thing to do is to watch, first, the by Mons, Cambrai, the Aisne, the precise question that in Perhaps it was because at this done by July 10, and were then same position as the Germane use. Asquith's words, are only villages south of Bapaume, such and Ypres. France, having now raised. This is the new point the French and British coking down on Peroane, which after they had broken the first
lines join, and this permitted they had lost on October 1, 1914. line of the French at Verdun and made a beginning which marks a sgen, such as Carbonel, Baray- just beginning," but they have as Martispach and also the vill borns the brunt of the terrible issue. first attack, was in no position No one in France, Russia, oroc-operation between Foch and
The British did not move as advanced to the second. We new phase in the war.
en-Santerre, and Barieux, south Britain expects to reach the Haig.
rapidly. They were checked shall have another bombardment Perhaps I should add, for the of the French line, and then to So the moment passed and Abine or the Oder this year. It Now as to the point of stteck; after their first drive and it was and all the familiar details of sake of clarity, that the foregoing watch Bapaume, Roge, Chaulnes, Germany going east won her is donbifal if there is any general Look at the map and you will see not until July 15 that they report trench warfare. But if the Ger- is not a prophecy. So many and Noyon. Finally Cambrai great campaign of last summer hops in Allied ospitals that Bel- that near the Somme River two ed the taking of Longueval, which mans have no reserve line, then times I have been criticised for and St, Quentin may be accepted won it on the battlefield, bat giam can be liberated before wide circles in the battle-front brought their line as far east as the situation will be very differ forecasting something, when as the altimets goals of the two lost the object, failed to dispose snow flies. The Russians do not meet. One wide circle, or semi- the French position of Bardecourt, ent, then we shall have a war in have merely pointed out that it Allies, if they are able to on. of Ramia. Free again, Germany expect to approach Cracow or circle, comes all the way round dne south of Longueval. But in the open again over fifty or sixty was the purpose of one side or Perhaps the most significant turned, first south to rescue Fosen, probably not to reclaim from Champagne, from Berry-an- the meantime the British had miles of front, between the Ger- the other to do the thing describ thing in the whole operation is Turkey and then went to deal Warsaw or Lods, before the year- bao, near Rheims. The other is begun to strike north as well as man treaches at Arras and the ed. There is nothing yet to show the tone taken about it by Ber with France. With Britain still end.
a far smaller cirole, enclosing cast and take a series of little Oise River. Then the Allies, by that the Allies will sacosed or lin commentators, unready France_fought another The atmost that the Allies hope Bapsame and meeting the towns das north of their line of driving in a wedge will have fail. The Russians have just the German ospital not the There is in Marne at the Mense and held is that France may be freed of northern part of the lins at communications. In other words, turned the Germans out of a very carried cut an offensive on smallest effort to minimise its again. From February to July German troops botwoon the Arras
the French having driven a wedge wide section of their Ranchos grand scale. A for smaller gain possibilities, although the con Mause and the se, that the In military phrase these two into the German lines, the British and compelled them to fight in of ground by the French or Adenos that these possibilities German hold upon Belgium may semi-circles are salients, that is, at once took advaḥtage of this the open, where the superior British would mean the retirement will not be realised in abrolute;
wedge and began to widen it by numbers of the Allies will tell of the Germans from France," striking north at the same time very heavily against them. But the bistory of the various beginning of a great campaign In point of fact we are at the sa they struck east.
offensive shows that usually the and the stakes are becoming great gains are made in the frat apparent. That in all that can
• The Germans gained up. safely or wisely be said now.
to strike.
her gallant, poilus clung to the hills of the Meuse above Verdan and beat off the most formidable and sustained attack this war has seen, and no other war anggoats a parallel.
be shaken, that Austria may have to surrender more of Galicia. So much for map hopes, hat, what ia more vital, the Allies hope and
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bulge, extending into the Allied line and held by the Germans,
If the French and British were able to pensients the German Kino, just whats the two med
at the time these lines are written, July 19, the situation is
When she Germans broke the first French line at Verdon, the French had prepared no second