THE HONG KONG TELEGRAPH.
NUMBERS IN WAR,
BY HILAIRE BELLOC.
The following article appeared ia Fearsons Magazine.
EXTRA
HONGKONG, SATURDAY, JUNE 5, 1915.
through which the trench would
be carried.
IN
be fixed, because upon it will a similar useful body of over five, depend the isane of the for the German adult males are to campaign.
the French as not quite two to
"
The first thing we have to one." see clearly is that Austria and Austria could in the same way Germany began the war with a gall up a reserve somewhat larger very great preponderance in num in proportion than the Germans, bers of trained and equipped men but as her population was some ready to take the field within the what smaller than Germany, we frat six weeks. They had here a must write her down for some- great advantage over Russia and thing over four millions instead France combined
of something over five, fora grand This original superiority of the total of between five and six enemy ia a point very little appre millions instead of for a grand ciated because of two things. total of seven. First, that men tend to think of. Servis, like France, could not the thing in nations and not in increase her contingent save by numbers, and they think of Get calling up her younger men; and many, one unit, attacked by her army was, like that of the England, France, Russia, a lot of French, a fired quantity, at any other units, and next because rate for the first six months of the there is a grave misconception as war, and increased by one-tenth to the numbers Russia could put or legs when the new plaes was into the field early in the war.
trained. Ressia had a certain force quite
4
1. That in a really considerable NO LUNCH FOR THE KING.
length of time two of her op-
ponents are capable of in- definite expansion-Russia and Great Britain.
2. Because all historical experi-
3.
4.
ence is there to show that the French are a nation that rally, and that unless you pin them after their first defeats their
tenacity will be increasingly dangerone.
Amusing Incident of `Royal 'Visit to Laertes.
Asting Boatswain Charles whom his Majesty has personally Powell, of H.M.S. Laertor, on
Because the power of the British Service Cross for gallantry on the Distinguished Flest is capable of establishing North Ses, describes, in a breesy a blookade more or less oom-
bestowed the
plete, and hitherto only less letter to his mother, a visit paid complete from political con to the ship, on coming in harbour,
the King, by siderations.
"We had a visit from the King Because the strategical pro-
out of
to
pat
obe Of
11
He also served for
It is evident, I repeat, that in practice there are needed to hold trenches a great many more men than this. You must allow for your wastage, for the difference in ability and coolness of different men, for the relieving of the men at regular and fairly short inter vale, and in general, it will be found that a line of trenches is with. not successfully - held less than 3,000 men to a mile... (1) Absolute Numbers. Imean
The Germans are now holding by the effect of absolute numbers in the weat a line of trenches 400 the fact that certain minimum miles long with something like The general reader hears con- is required for any particular 5,000 men to a mile; so the best tinually in these times that dum operation, For instanco, if you work in the war would seem to bers are the decisive element in were holding a wall a mile long have been done by a portion of
blem, the fighting upon two on Thursday. He name on board War: That every authority, every which su enemy upon the other the British contingent in front of
fronts, involves, as a method of the Lertes just after we had got student and every soldier is con- side desired to surmount, it is. Tores when apparently, a body of
in from ses, and took us rather victory, final success upon one vinced of it, he cannot fail to see evident that you could not hold only 1,500 men to the mile, and
front before you can be certain by surprise. He had a look round from the nature of the orders auch a wall with one man even those I understand, dismonate
the ship, and afterwards we were of auccess upon the other. given and of the appeals made. though the enemy on the other cavalry, successfully held some
This last point merits illustra-introduced to him. He sat down Numbers in material, and in men, side consisted only in one man. three miles of trenches for several ready, that is fully equipped, Russia in her tura presented tion. An army fighting inferior in the mess with us spinning ate the one thing urged. The The opportunities for the success days.
officered, trained, gunned, and yet another type of growth. She bodies on two fronts is just likes yard for about a quarter of an
bad by far larger reserves of public critique of the war is fill- of the enemy would be too great.
It is apparent, then, that when the rest of it.. But she had nothing adult males than any other Power" very big man fighting two much hour, and was quite homely. We ed with estimates of enemy and You could not hold it with ten you are considering a line of like the numbers in proportion to
smaller men. They can harass should have invited him to lanch, of men against ten. You could allied numbers, numbers
trenches you must consider them ber population that the enemy and was practically equal, in the him more than their mere fight but we'd been at sea a long time, and only had tinned beef and 1880 V8, numbers of killed, num hardly hold it with 100 men us a series of sections, to defend had. The proportions of popula- material of which one can alti
biscuits." bera of prisoners. The whole of against 100. But supposing that each of which sections tion were between Rasais sad her mately make trained soldiers, tog power of weight accounts for,
and they can do so because they Powell had met the King pre- the recruiting, movement in this you have 3,000 men to hold it with, certain minimum. is required. enemy as seventeen to thirteen. Germany and Austria combined are attacking upon different sideeously, for he was on the Re- country is based on this same and they are using no weapons gave If нду Bectio'a bas
The big man so situated will less But Germany and, to a less extent, theoretically, counting all her var-
nown, which took the King and conception of numbers.
their bands, then 3,000 men could than its proper minimum the Austria and Eungary, had or-ious races, she was the superior of
Queen-then Prince and Princess Now the general render may not only against
Our inly attempt
of Wales to India in 1905-6, appreciate the general character of 3,000 cthere, but against any will be carried and the cord will ultimately for war, Russia could But it was certain that she could his two opponents before he puts
not do this. Her advantage, only not equip more than a certain his fall force against the other. and he possesses the silver this conception, but he must often number of thousands of others; be broken..
for every man would have as his be puzzled by the detailed aptask the pushing of a ladder off and wounded and disease the nine | lapse of time, was the power of them, or officer them, or govern the situation, and it is exactly the on that occasion to each member Suppose by killed an 1 prisoners to be obtained after a considerable number in a given time, or train It would be a plan necessary to pendant given by their Majesties plication of it.
If I am told that ten men are no more than a very small section dwindle to six, then the line perpetually raising new contin- them.
I think it just to say that she going to fight eight, the mere of the wall with which his own
can no longer be held. It means gents, which, by the time they sound of the figures suggest
in practice that the six remaining were trained and equipped could certainly could not put into the There we see what is meant by would have to ba superiority on the part of the ten,
grouped successively enter the field. Bat European, field more than five but unless I know how they are the necessity of absolate numbers and in any case there would be a at the opening of the war, say by millions during the better part of going to fight, Ishould be puzzled or a minimum.
Now that is exactly what you through
bad gap, double or single, the middle of September, when the first year of the war, Though to say exactly how the extra two
which the enemy she had perhaps at the most two-it must be remembered that if the
For all these four seasons, then, are somewhat greater, from the would tell. I certainly could not have in the case of a great line of would pierce. What can and-a-half million men in Poland, war lasted indefinitely she would Germany was bound to wasts condition of the fighting), or call Bay whether the two would be trenches. Your defending force the general in command of the total forces of the enemy, that have at her back at any period men, and she did waste man them 30 per cent, instead of 25 enaagh to make a serious differ. does not get weaker and weaker the defence do when his force has the total number of men Austria indefinitely large reserves to draw largely until about the end of last per cent, ani supposing the ence or not, and I might come to as it diminishes in number until
and Germany had equipped," upon,
year. She threw them awayAustro-Hungarion losses to be very wrong conclusion about the it reaches zero; it is able to hold
He has no choice but to fall trained, and ready for the field Let us call Russia ultimately, recklessly during the first advance comparable to the German (which, chances of the eight of the ten, trenches of a certain length with back upon shorter lines. That is, since the beginning of the war, for the purposes of the war during on Paris, next during the great from the only available source of So it is worth while if one is at a certain minimum of and
men
all its first months, a minimum attacks in Flanders, tho-quite statistice, they would seem to be), tempting to form a sound opinion when it falls below that minimam having only six unite left he must was at least eight million.
retire to some point where You have the war, then, begin pon the present campaign to see it cannot bold the line at all. It exactly how and why numbers are bas to fall back upon a shorter his remaining six units will be ning with the enemy standing
line. Supposing you have, for just sufficient to hold the line, quite 8, the French nomininally the deciding factor in war.
of trenches and if the six, dwindle to four heat 4, but really nearer 3; Russia In the first place it is evident instance, a line.
mast again "fall bask to a yet at 2 іянце the that numbers only begin to tell-B holding when other things are fairly between two obstacles X and Y shorter line.
Note carefully that this does. equal. Quite a few men armed agaidiet an enemy who attacke with rifles will be a match for from the direction E., the pum- tot concern proportionate nam multitudes doprived of fire-arma, ber of men holding these trenches, bere. We are not here consider- and the history of war is full of A-B, is nine units, and thising the relative strength of the smaller forces defeating larger number is just enough, and only defence and of the offence; we forces from Marathon to Ligny, just ero ign, to prevent an enemy are dealing with absolute num- Bat when war follows upon attacking from E getting through. bers, with a minimum below long period of peace and takes Nius unite just prevent any part which the defensive cannot hold place between nationa. of ons part of the line of trenches, A-B, a certain line at all, but must seek
a aborter one. civilization all closely communis from being left defenceless. cating one with another, and when What does one mean by say-
Now that is precisely the state war has been the principal studying: "Just enough to prevent of affairs upon the French and of those nations during the period an enemy getting through?" Belgian frontiers at this moment. of peace, then all elements except
One means that if you consider The Germans are holding a line, those of numbers do become fair trenches in detail, a certain length which is roughly that of the ao ly equal. And that is exactly the of trenca needs a certain number companying map, between the the present of men to hold it, and if that num-Swiss mountains and the sea near
ber of men is not present, it must Nieuport
condition. af
bands could deal.
11
thus dwindled?
is
at
same with a power or a group of) of the crew. powers fighting upon two fronts, several years on the Cressy. although they find themselves in superior numbers on either front, as the Austro-Germans do still.
of three and a maximum of five separately in her desperate then we can strike a very rough millions. Let us count Great Polish effort to reach Warraw estiraste of the element of wastage, Britain in those game months at which goal, at the moment of and we can say that if the central two millions, including all who writing, she has wholly failed to figure be taken as 9, 3.8 have have gone out, all since recruited, attain.
grue; while of the 4 and 3.on and the many more who will not
But though we know that Ger- either side (the proportionate be either recruited or fully train many and Austro-Hungary have strength of the Allies West and ed for some months to come but lost men in a greater proportion East in the first phase) 1 has gone excluding foreign garrisons and than the Western Allies, and in each case, leaving 3 and 2. naval forces. Such an estimate though we may guess that they It will be seen that, from this is certainly a maximum for that have lost men in a greater pro-rough calculation, the wastage of period.
portion than our Eastern Allies the enemy has been so much in spite of the heavy losses in greater than our own that, if it were prisoners at Tannenberg-it is absolute, his prepondela ce in lees easy to give an accurate enti- numbers would have ceased, and mate of the proportion.
the figures would stand nearly equal.
་
Let us see how time was to to modify this grave disproportion and how new contingents coupled with the effect of wastage were to affect it.
The armies which were in the field in the early part of the war
Even as I write I rise from bear very various relations to the countries from which they come. reading the account of a sermon Great Britain had upon the by some clergyman, an English Sambre in the frat battle of the man--but not in England, I am
In one case and up to one date. campaign rather mora than one glad to say who talked of Ger-
But there is one last element tenth per cent. of her total po- many with her back to the wall, we can arrive pretty accurately at
The German in the calculation which must not pulation. The French had in the fighting the world, and expressing the proportion.
Ho had Empire alone had, up to a parti- be forgotten. The only people field at the outset of the war 5 per his admiration thereat. cant. of their total population, the evidently never considered the calar date in the autumn, lost in permanently out of action in the hit, sick, and caught (I will speak war are the killed, the disabled, Russians 1 per cent., the Germans element of numbers.
Now what about the wastage ? | in a moment of the question of and the captured. Mach the perhaps 5 per cent, the Austrians
Luckily for us, German neces"retaras") 40 per cent of the greater part of the eick return to between 3 and 4 per cent, the Servians quite 10 per cent.sad Bities, as well as German doct- individuals up to that date put the centre, and just over bail the 10 per cent. is the largest total rine, have involved very heavy into the field. Both the French wounded-at least, in a modern any nation can possibly put into wastage. And, luckily for us, and the English had up to the war, and where there are good am the field.
that wastage has been particular. same date lost just under 25 perbulance, arrangements and good Now the chances of growth for ly heavy in the matter of officers. cont.
roads for them to work on A discussion on numbers does I know that figure 10 per cent. Now, though these "returns" each of these attingents were
not allow one to stray into the looks absurdly exaggerated when are probably smaller in the East very different in each care.
That of Great Britain was in- equally important moral factors it is put thas without support, than in the West (for in the definitely large. Given sufficient of the war, but the fact may be but it is a perfectly sound con- Eastern field climate and absence incentive, Great Britain might just alluded to that the whole elusion. If you take the lists of communication are fatal to ultimately put into the field two general military organism of Ger published by Prussis, note the many of the wounded, who would million or even three. She was many depende more than that of dates to which they refer, the be saved in the Western field), we certain of putting into the field in any other pation upon the gulf proportion of killed to the ad should do well to take a con the first year of the war more than between the officer and those mitted wounded, and add the servstive estimate, and regard it one million; she might hope to next in command. Not only proportion for Bavaris, Wartem-as half the wounded in each esse put in two. She had further can joi make B French burg, and Saxony, you find that or, excluding prisoners, more than behind ber as a recruiting fold, non-commissioned officer into an at this date in the late autumn a As for the line of the Rhine lythe Colonies, and a matter of officer without fear of losing an two millions were affected, and casual ?
about
400
campaign.
be altogether abandoned. It is miles long in all its twists and The enemy have certain advant evident that a mile of trench, for turns. If their numbers fall be ages in material, or bad at the
instance, could not be held by low a certain level they cannot beginning of the struggle, notably half-a-dozen men, even if the hold that line at all, and they in the matter of heavy artillery, forces opposed to them were only must take up a aborter line. How bat much more in the accurate
a half-dozen.
ould they do this? Either by forecast they had made of the way in which modern fighting You must, first, have enough doning Alsaceandaban Lorrains men to cover the field of fire in or moat of Belgium and all would turn. All sorts of their front of the trench with the mis-northern France, and falling back tactical theories turned out to be siles from the weapons of each, upon the line Antwerp-Namur just.
The Allied forces had advant- and so stop the assault of the The Ardennes and the Vosges, enemy. Every man with his With failing numbera they ages--the English in personal rifle may be regarded as account would have to take up a still equipment, medical and commie- sariat service; the French, Rating for a certain angle of space shorter line from Liege south- gians, and Servians, in the type of in front of him. These angles warde, just protecting German field gun. The French in a ground, in theory at least, not
must meet and cover the whole territory.
85 per cent, of all ticular in their theory of strategy, farther from the trench than the ing immediately bebind which has proved sound.
| discussion the Indian Army, atom of the moral strength of the Germany had not armed more. We must add, therefore, in that most advanced point to which it it IB a great But there was no conspicuous has been discovered that an longer than the shortest line they back on rave the young men who the thing is done continually dur- that time.
deal The French lad nothing to fall French military organism, but than five millions at the most at proportion to all our figures, and difference such as would make a
the result will slightly modify our smaller number able to defect a enemy'a rush will rasch before could take up; F-B, and though were growing up. Therefore, ing peace and during war on a Now, as in our own case, the conclusion, for as the central body much largerone, and the historical combined fire stops it. In pract- heavily fortified at fivs important they were certain not to be able large scale. In Germany you can proportion of officers his, wound-the enemy as bad more cheerver at a distance of Sime that ice, of course, you need very many points and with slighter fortifies to add to their numbers for at least do nothing of the kind.
ed, and caught was large com casualties, so it has a larger num will make him impartial, will more me, but the theory of the tions elsewhere, it would need six months, which is just about The attack in close formation, rared to that of men; but what is ber of returns in proportion to its Certainly regard the war as one ship is bat is the extra to point quico as many men to defend it the time it takes to train effect with all its obvious advantages of more important, perhaps, the pro- size, and the general deduction is
at which you can expect to stop a as a corresponding line of trenly new formations. fought between forces of ears rush is the line L-L, and if the ches. Thus it would be no shor- The Germans had in reserve tradition of discipline which wounded was very much larger Germanic body and the Allies speed and with all the very fine portion of officere killed or badly that at the moment of writing the
The one great differentiating need is the angle B-A-C, then you back upon the Rhine... the same weaponing and training angle over which a rifle is usefully tening of the German line to fall about as many men again as they makes it possible, is another in proportion to the slightly opposed to them actually in the had put under arms at the begin- element of expense, but most ex- wounded then wasthecase with the field or in training just behind point will be numbere.
cannot hold the trench at all un- So much for an illustration of Now how is it that these num less you have, at least enough men what is meant by absolute num. ing of the war. If the French pensive of all is the determination men; it is fairly certain that one the field and ready to approach
could hope for a grand total of to win at once.
helf of the trained professional it within a few weeks-sie nearly” just to oover that ling L-L bere and of their importance in four millions wherein somewhat Why have the Germane been officers of the German service equal in total numbers, but with with their Bro. If you try the present, phase of the cam- over three might be really effective thus prodigal of men in their de- were permanently out of action an appreciable margin still in
it with less men, paiga.
and of us falage for active service termination to win rapidly? A by the end of the year,
favour of the anemy, portion of the front; you would numbers? That is a point upon hope to produce a grand total of for four separate and equal losses to be no greater than the situation in cur favour we must For a modification of this would only covers (2) Now what of Proportionate in say shape, then Germany might long war is dreaded by Germany Supposing the Russian
gap in it between which even closer attention must somewhat over seven millions and Teasons
Western Allied (they probably still wait some months.
bera tell?
There are two aspects of the thing which I will call (1) The Effect of Absolute Numbere and
Numbere,
(2) The Effect of Proportionste
you