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60
FORECASTS OF LEAN YEARS. SIR W. BEVERIDGE'S NEW THEORY
EVIDENCE OF APPARENT PERIODICITY
THE SVIDENCE OF THE BAROMETER. Can this periodic, fluctuation of the economic records be connected with any-. thing in meteorology 1. I think it clearly cun. From the Report of the Solar Physics Committee on Barometric Pres Pures (published in 1908), and from other --The Frmer-gives-the-jollowing sumar sobrere, it has been possible to compare the of a reture, deliverest, at the Lunden in barometric pressure over large part School of Economics and Politien. Belenge of the habtable globe in each year sincs by Sir William 17 tovorulge, K.C.K18 From 1870 this comparison is buard (Director of the School), setting out a new records from 30 separate stations in theory of period city in the weather and Australia, Chan, Japan, the Malay the crops
Archipelago, East Indies, Persia, South Many attempts have been made in the and Mast Aires (including Mauritius), past to counees the world-wide factuations the Mediterranean basin, Western and of trade and industry and the recurrence Central Europe, Russia, and North Ame of commercial crises with some astronomi rica. In these 41 years the three years of cal or meteorological eyele affecting the lowest pressure are 1875, 1893 and 1909. Between 1842 and 1973 the ovidence is more
crops.
The most famous of these attempts i, rescanty, and presents one or two curious ad features, but it still comes from all parts presented by the sun spot theory vanced by Profesor W. S. Jevons between of the world, and is sufficient to identify 1975 and 1979. It is generally agreed that the years about 1947 and 1861-2 as barome this theory in its original form bax herically the most remarkable of the period. come untenable, and, though mors weens The agreement between the barometric and writers bave done much to illustrate the the economic records in singling out the connection between weather, crops, and in saa live successive epochs at intervals of dustrial activity in particular countries. 3 to 18 years is practically complete. At it has not proved possible to demonstrate the last three epochs, 1978, 1593, 1909 & the existence of any periodie harvest year of minimum pressure (meaning us a Bugtilation of a general character, or to rule a cold and wet summer) follows upon reinstate the sun spara us nu influence in a year of exceptionally high pressure
(involving as a rule, drought).
There gur daily lives
It is not, however, uecessary to wait for appears to be, at intervals of between 15 and 18 something in the nature of Just as astronomers the this седят musements of u een star un discover the a meteorological crisis, Extending oser try over and ves the mass of its dark or thee, which and denting to abnurmal companion which, they do not see, so there the countries that need rain by withholding which first destrops the crops of appear to be at least two methods by which fluctuation, in the past agricultural pro it, and then the crops of the countries ductivity of the word can now be dis which desire dry weather by excessive rain. covered and recorded. The first these: The fact that the drought usually precedes methods consists of a ralysis of ports, the doluge makoa dearth in India usually the second of an analysis of the British precede dearth in North Anarien and export trade. By these means it seems possible to prove the existence of a regular evela bezwhich the general productivity of the world is lowered for one or more harvests, at intervals of 15 to 16 years.
THE EVIDENCE OF PRICES.
:
England.
HISTORIC RECORDS,
Over the whole period which they jointly cover,the two guli of reonomie, records and the barometric records are in almost abṣb. iute agreement. But we need not stop at 1530. The index of relative food prices ? has already given the dates of the next three provering crisis, The evidence of this Annual Register and of such writers as
o
Long before the yield of harvests is re- corded in official statistics, it is taken into sccount under the laws of supply and de | mand, in the determining of market prices. Marked +xcess or deficiency of s erug in any year, as compared with the normal ke (h the Hetory of Prices) marks will tend to be reflected in a marked fall 85 as meteorologically the worst years of each of these dates, is10-17, 1700-1800, 1792-
So soon as there is or rise of the marker for any con- reed fur two centuries or more, by examina- of their period. Beginud 1784 we can pro- anything like n modity, the price becomes a world price and tion of grain prices, of famine histories, tends to word excess or deficiency in the and pt contemporary accounts of weather. world as a whole, leaving inirecordsi such A first investigation of these recurdy clearly purny Joenl variations as are balancer indicats 4771-74, 1756-57, 1740-46, 1798 by opposite variations in some other local. (doubtful). 17, 124, or in some ity. price of most crops in modern records (dia-74), 1661, 1647-18, and 2010 ns times is thus neeflection of the world's perils of exceptionally high prices and harvest Infortunately in modern times poor harvests in Eugland. Most of thes it is influenced by nudo reflects and of scotland, France, Spain, Germany, an other things as well. The money price wheat or sight, as of all other articles, other European countries, so far as re tends to rise and fall in dependence on cords are available. The epochs italicised general conditions of currency credit, can be identified with notable Indian or war and taxation and civil disturbance. famines in the same or immediately pre If, however, the supply and so the price ceding year. Beyond 1830 there is a curi, of 'une class of articles, such as grups, is ons break in the series; the next crisis i affected by a climatic cause which does not seems to be dissipated between several high influence soule other class, such as methis,, boats, and that which was due about 1600, then this should how itself by a diangy appareatly, both in England and in India. in the relative" bvsej uf-price of the two comes four or five years too soon (1393 or
1590) {utes, *
Thereafter the cycle resumes its -Price index number for many important course
.
stami,uut also us times of dearth in
articles in the United Kingdom are tail which again emphatically in the famine, to the institution of the English able for each year from 1789 onwards. Poor Law in 1585-88; it continues in 1555- Using Jovons figures to 1865 and Sauerbecks 37, 1511, and 182897. All these dates He thereafter, I have divided the price of food very close to those reached by working back for each year by the corresponding nun- with a 15 year period from 1877 or 1873, her for the price of certain metals (copper. The cycle of 131 years doel vot, of. lend tin, iron), and timber. By thie Feourse, account for all harvest failures. means any changes in price level which some of the most notorious Indian fabies, are common tu both classes are eliminated; Psuch as that of 1800-1000, fall outside its and any changes peculiar to ong class are range. In the centuries covered, by the thrown into relier. We get in fact an short retrospect given above, there are Since other years of dearth and high prices." index of relative food prices."
y
the demand for food is relatively steady. One can only any that, as a rule, if not this index should furruate with the supply invariably, these ocher bad times prove on of food, rising with bad harvests in the examination to be less severe or less gui world as a whole, and falling when they cral than those of the cycle.
One are good. Any periodic fluctuation of this, add that the occurrence of intermediate index can hardly be explained save beterises is in full decord with what seems periodicity in the yield of harvests.
to be the only possible explanation of the The result of this calculation is striking eye.es itself. No period of 155 years" up- This relative food prices, with certain, ge pears to have been recognized by meteoru éral changes of level, shows a
marked
logists hitherto. "It seems clear that if a Auctuation with maximum points at 1900, cycle of this length exists it must repre 1603-4, 1878, 1901- 1847, 1837, 1817-1800, sent the combination of at least two and 1784. There are minor fluctuations and probably more eseles of shorter length, in particular there are two relatively high which at these intergals of 15 or 10 years points at 1567-8 and 1795, but when regard tend to coincide in their operation, but is had to the general movement of the may themselves produce intermediate crises, index, none of the intermediate maxima are One of the cycles might be the cycle of of
importnete yours
equal to those of the years just over five years, which is found in gr named.
of high tood prices
tais terrestrial phenomena; another might barvest) of 15 or 16 years; the which 'fear make up. the sun spot period, are almost invariably well be the important 1-year oycle, of separated by
only exception being at 1817, when an un-of just over 11 years, and of which 11 usually long interval of 17 years from 1800 would make almost exactly two complete is at once corrected by a short interval periods, of 15 years each This sugges of 14 years to the next maximum.,
THE ZVIDENCE OF ESPORTS.
The second way of discovering fluctua tion in general agricultural productivity is found in a somewhat unoxpected quarter that is to say, in an analisis of British
The
method adopted in
exports.
tion gaius colour from the fact that though the 15-year crisis is occasionally hard to trace at one manifestation, it has sever in three centuries failed or been feeble twice running...
It is needless to point out the practical
to decide the index anna Tharvests, if it proves to be established.
of British reports an importance of this apparent periodicity of
given' in pounds
Der representing the general lero, of whole. We should not have a fali explanation of sale prices of all commodities in that year, factor in it, but we should know definitely trade fluctuation, or indeed more than one This methods has been dealt with is an
article o
"British Exports and the soothing more of the laws which from time Barometer,
appearing the current
rent to vime oring scarcity upon the world. inque of the Feonic Journal. It will be Inevitably the question arises as to whe sufficient to state that for the reasons ther the present theory, if correct, make there given, the quotient resulting from possible the forecasting of the future this division, should, theoretically, rise and
dearth. To this question the answer is fall with the productivity of the world's The experience of three centuries warns us
"yes" and "ne, or rather not. crops as a whole, and that in fact it shows a periodic fluctuation-in-complete-
yet,"
with the relative food prices, the prepare for the probability that one or
more of the years 1924 1925 and 1923, will be marked by most unseasonable rea 1831-2, 1847, 1882, 1877-6, 1993, 1900, as successive minima of agricultural producther, diminishing the yield of harvests, in-
The exact length of the period
creasing tion.
food price, and possibly produc is
But experience shows that probably between 15.3 and 16.4 years, and ing lamines.
can for present purposes be most con- the severity of the crisis varies from one veniently assumed at 15 years and four manifestation to another, and, that the months.
precise year is, within the limits, of two or÷ That the sears indicated above
Experience also more in three years, uncertain. fact times of widespread harvest failure shows the possibility of a particular crisis and famine is known In 1908.9 and 1893-4 being dissipated and bardly appearing at bad American harvests followed on Famines all or, in one case at least, appearing four in India and Russia (1891-9). The general years before its time. While, however, IE failure of European harvests in 1847 and snor, Ithink, possible now to make a de- the famines which ravaged the Old World finite forecast, this does not mean that the in 1877-8 are matters of history. The material for such a forecast is not avail years 1831-2 are marked by droughts in able, Detailed examination of the India and Bouth Africa, and elsewhere. barometric and other weather records very Descriptive accounts, however, do not allow well make it possible not only to deman of ready comparison between these and strate beyond question the existence of the other deartha, either for severity or gen-main cycle but also to discover the laws crality. The merit of the statistics given which determine the precise date and rela above, is that thes furnish a continuous tive everity of each crisis.In that event record of konditions in the world as a wide field for remedial effort will have whole, and thus make comparison possible
been opened,
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