390
that the population of Manchuria is eight millions, as is believed to be approximately the case, this would give a buying power per head of over six and a half taels-- a far larger sum than the average native of Manchurit can possibly spend in a year on foreign goods at his present economic
The Commissioner stage."
concludes that business has been carried on regard- less of the law of supply and demand, with the results that sometimes follow speculative enterprise. The market was badly congested. Most of the money left by the belligerents had gone away into Shantung and Chihli. The natural riches of Manchuria are not on the surface; they are not accessible without time, labour, and capital. It must be disastrous to try to force the market. In Dairen itself the foreign community is growing fast. With its railway facilities and magnificent har- bour, it undoubtedly has a future as & business emporium, but in 1907 the net value of its trade (for the whole area, presumably) was only Tla. 13,837,739.
THE HONGKONG WEEKLY PRESS AND
[Jane 22, 1908. and the latter by competition will become, if | it was understood to mean that nobody was to it is not now, cheaper There are 17 places make payments or advance money. For some in the interior, technically called inland trade days no business of any kind was done. Ships marts, viz., Moukdep, Sinminfa, Tishling, lay idle in the river; oharterers could not pay Taugkiangtze, Fakunen, Fenghwangcheng, the charter money; shippers could not pay for Liaoyang, Kancheggiz, Kiri, Harbin produce already bought, nor could they find Ningkuts, Hunchun, Sinsing, Taitsihar, Man- ready money to pay duty on purchases already chouli, Hailar, and Aigan, to which duty-paid paid for. An arrangement was soon made by goods, both foreign and native can be sent by which the guilds gusesɔtood duties, and that removed. Presently money bost, cart, or railway without farther payment difficulty was of duty. The railways have worked great began to arrive from other places, and the wheels of business revolved once more. A prom:89 obanges, for without them dew ports would have had no chance; had the chaogos are not of government assistance to the bankrupt's yet complete, for the railways will before long available assets aided in restoring confidence, provide belter facilities than they do now. Naturally the affair orested great distrust and The widening of the gauge of the South Man- was a serious blow to the port's prospects; but churian Railway will assist its traff, and of there is no reason to suppose that business, course the present inferior train service will taken as a whole, is not on a sound footing. All China is suffering from the inevitable be improved. The company plans to bring its lines a mile or two nearer Newchwang than reaction after a period of prosperity. That, in the present terminus at Miqchistuu, and has all probability, is a greater case of difficulty made its freight rates the same from New. than local conditions, though of these New. onwang as from Dairen. The Imperial Rail- ohwang has had its shares to contend with. way of North China has showa itself a strong Bat the conditions produced by war have about competitor, and while keeping rates down has passed away, and 1908 should prove a fairer test yet made profit. The Chinese Eastern Railway than the year just passed. The country is is turning its attention to developing traffic, prosperous; excpt for a trip running east and Chinese merobants at Harbin are negotiat and west with, roughly, Tiehlin ( for its contre, the orops of the past season have been good. ing for a scale of rates from Shanghai to Vladivostock which will enable them to get At present, it is true, no new lines of trade are cargo by that route reasonably. Incidentally opening up which will benefit the port, but the it may be of interest to say that the distance to opinion of those best qualified to judge is that Harbin from Vladitostock is 485 miles; from the old channels will provide moderate pro- Newohwang, 473 miles; and from Dairen, 615 sperity in spite of the competition of other (Daily Press, 18th June.)
miles to Kwangshengiz from Vladivostock, ports. 635 miles; from Newch wang, 331 miles; and Yesterday we quoted some interesting from Dairen, 615 miles. What is the conclusion comments on the Manchurian market for to be drawn? All this will assist greatly the deve foreign goods from the pen of Mr.lopment of the country, and it also means that Commissioner KUROSAWA of Dairen. not one but several places will have a share in the the same book, less than a dozen pages result of that development. There must also be a further on, Mr. Commissiouer CLARKE at change in the method of conducting business in foreign goods. Agents on the spot bave Newchwang offers opinions almost directly become necessary. This is not an academic contrary, as to the consuming capacity of official statement of the kind which irritates mar Manchuria. We cannot do better than chants as coming from someone who would teach quote the whole of his opening paragraph, them their busines: it is the necessity conse long as it is:
quence of competition in Manchuria instead of at Shanghai. There is no need to enlarge upon this. Three, at least, large corporations have proved its value.
In a subsequent article we will examine the reports from other northern ports, for items of similar outstanding interest.
In
In the market reports and newspaper para- graphs which have appeared during the past year, and in the inquiries about trade in Mar- churia which have reached the Commissioner of Customs, there has commonly been a note of impatience with Manoburia and with New. obwang that the expectations of trade have not been fulfilled, It is true that everybody under- estimated the result of war, both the immediate effect and the after effect-the destrustion of property, the interruption of work and business, the increased cost of living which followed the occupation of the country by armies,and forgot that the time of business prosperity is not just after war has ceased. Manchuria has not recovered even so fast as the least sanguine expected, and has not been able to absorb rapidly the large quantities of goods imported in anticipation of great demand. All this may be admitted. Yet if it were possible to get statis. tics of all the goods imported through Dairen in the eight months between the closing of Newchwang, in 1906 and the opening of the Dairen Customs in 1907, and combine them with the Newchwang statistics and the statistics of Dairen since July, it is probable that it would be found that Manchuria has purchased more than people think. But trade has not followed altogether the same route as hitherto. siderable part of the cotton goods, yarn, and sugar, not to mention miscella eous goods, have come from or through Japan instead of through Shanghai, It would seem wholly unnecessary to repeat that Newchwang is not the only port of entry into Manchuris and that its trade is not now a fair index of the trade of the conutry, yet the Commissioner often receives inquiries based on the idea that there has been no change. The old order of things has disappeared. There are now five ports having railway communication with the interior. Imports are no longer piled up at Newchwang to be worked off during the winter, nor are exports accumulated here for spring shipment. No doubt the saving of storage, insurance, and interest thus effected will benefit the consumer, but the change makes a groɩt dif- ference in the character of Newchwang trade. Cart traffic for long distance transport has been surperseded largely by railway carriage,
A con-
If a branch of trade is valuable, somebody will find it worth his while to displace an article which moboly looks after. Japaness cotton cloth in short lengths and narrow widths like native cloth would not have ben impor ed to the extent it has been, to the injury of the native cloth trade, if it had not been pushed into the notice of buyers.
At Newchwang the business of the year has been disappointing, figures appended show a great decline in trade, especially in the import For of native goods, from the previous year. fully half the year business was very dull; by August it had begin to revive, and September and October increased the hope of good steady trade; but early in November occurred the failure of the large Cantonese firm, Tung Sheng Ho, and four connected firms, with liabilities of some 4 million taels. The bankrupt had been engaged in all the kinds of business which the port offers; he was a manufacturer of bean oil and beancake; an exporter of grains, beans oil and cake; an owner and charterer of ships; an importer of piso goods, yarn, sugar, and flour; a banker; a speculator in land etc. The best authority states that his books had not been made
ор for Line years, a length of time which includes the Boxer year and the Russo-Japanese war. not have gone on so long nor spread out in so many directions but for the facilities which the "transfer" system of banking offers. Ia the opinion of many this failure gave a striking demonstration of the unsoundness of the system and afforded a good opportunity to supress it. Some efforts have been made to press this view on the Chinese officials; but it is fair to add that opinion is not unanimous on the abolition of transfer money, and there are those who hold that we have witnessed only an abuse of credit. At the same time it is not denied that a system which lends itself so readily to abuse is dangerous. For a while the failure brought business to a standstill. The local authorities issued a notice arging merchants not to part with their money, and though this was explained later on to mean a warning against creating a scarcity of ready money by shipping it to other places,
He could
We need not comment on these opposing views, further than to suggest that both commissioners may be right in their several
Mr.
ways.
KUROSAWA gives figures in support of his opinion, and Mr. CLARKE goes
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some way with him. Probably Manchuria will before long be buying more foreign goods than Mr. Kurosawa suggests, while it is in every way likely that it will never be the Tiddlers Ground for trade that many people have expected it to be. The net value of Newchwang's trade is given as Tls. 32,294,663.
At Tientsin, Mr. Commissioner MERRILL is not so much concerned with Manchuria as one would expect. He reports an unpro- fitable year, due to excessive speculation aud long credits, with overstocking, and bad markets for Tientsin exports. The depre-
ciation of the copper coinage lessoned the demand for foreiga goods, and though Mr. MERRILL does not like to say so outright it is clear that he recognises the suicidal This methods of the provincial mints. over-issue of copper currency for imme liate profits punishes the poorer classes severely. There is an interesting reference to the introduction of the thin end of the wedge of popular representation at Tientsin, but so far the new municipal government does not seem to have made much progress. Toe net value of Tientsin's trade is put at Tis. 96,778,966, and that of Chiowangtao at Tls. 5,293,870.
Chefoo, according to Mr. Commissioner UNWIN has become a secondary port serv- ing a restricted hinterland. Here again we find references to over-trading, due to too sanguine expectations following the war, Unstable currency and a glutted market had sad results. The net value of the trade fell from thirty-nine million taels in 1905 and thirty-four millions in 1906 to Tla. 28,646,513.
'Mr. Commissioner OHLMER of Kiaochow also refers to the depreciation of copper coins as causing a set-back to the import trade, another factor being the absence in this district of subsidiary currency under the face value of ten-cash. In two years the export trade of Tsingtau has increased nearly 75 per cent, until now about half the value of its imports. The net value is put at Tls. 28,637,889,