October 7, 1905.]
J
But England has never sought to pose as a military nation, nor does she desire to coerce her neighbours in any way; in fact, the more prosperous are her neighbours the better for her own interests. That, of course, is the true explanation of England's efforts in the cause of peace; and also the true cause of her having to be at all times prepared to second them by force of arms, if necessary. This is also the chief cause of the importance of Great Britain retaining her position in Weihai. Conceal it as they may under the cover of smooth generalities, there is no doubt that the partition of China is the ultimate hope of more than one Continental Power; the occupation by Great Britain of Weibai has acted hitherto as a salutary check on these designs; her aban donment of it as a thing of no monent Would remove the curb, and unloose the demon of discord.. This is felt and comprehended by everyone outside the im- mediate influence of the British Government itself; and we do not confine our remarks to any party in England, nor even to England herself, but include the entire world.
Now the abandonment of the project of making a naval base at Weihai, for it never was anything more than a project, by no means logically demands a retirement 'from the position, any more than the like abandonment of Halifax implies the yielding up of Nova Scotia to the first claimant. It has never been the practice of England however it may have recommended itself to, Continental Powers, to gird her possessions with fortifications. It may not be true
that
"Britannia needs no bulwarks ; No towers along the steep;" but she has always acted as if she could more efficiently protect herself by con centrating her forces rather than by scattering them at every post needing defence. It might have been wiser policy on the part of Russia to have had no forts at Port Arthur, as recommended by General KUROPATKIN, than to have lost a campaign through defending them. Even though Weihai be the finest sanitorium in the world, in war time England cannot afford to intern her troops and sailors. But Weihai has other claims to our considera- tion besides being one of the best health resorts in the world. Commercially it is the key of the Gulf of Pechili, and the Gulf of Pechili commands the entire trade of North China, and not only this but the
entire sea-borna trade of Manchuria and Mongolia. This, by the result of the late war, bas fortunately been rescued from destruction. It is true that up to this Weihai has given no indication of its capacity for comaierce, but that is little wonder when we consider the disabilities under which by the vacillating policy of
CHINA OVERLAND TRADE REPORT,
JAPAN'S FINANCIAL -FUTURE.
36
of
(Daily Press, 4th October.) Exchange showed one side of the discon certing effect of the unexpected peace terms, and particularly the Yokohama quotation, which is now rapidly going back to its normal level. Evidently the public faith in the financial future of Japan has bern too strong to suffer more than a momentary wavering. The views of critics on the spot are, however, likely to be of interest for some time to come; and just now these are characterised by a considera ble variety. The Japan Chronicle, which alone among the foreign newspapers appears to have any real insight into financial matters in that country, devotes a leading article to an argument, that the loss of the expected indemnity will stimulate, rather than retard, industrial progress. Japan's intention to consolidate the foreign debt with a view to reducing the annual interest payments is, of course, temporarily frustrated; but our contemporary adduces historical examples to show that that advantage- consolidation--would not come undiluted. The result upon trade and finance in Japan, after the receipt of the Chinese indemnity, was by no means healthy." It encouraged wild speculation,
""bubble numerous the flotation of companies, "and the immediate result was overtrading and disorganisation. commercial and industrial finance." This is not based,
as one might hastily conclude, on the erroneous assump tion that the Chinese indemnity payment flooded Japan with a surplus currency. It was the news, the credit, of the indem nity, that inspired the reckless enterprises of 1895-6. In our contemporary's words. "The knowledge that Japan had brought a successful war to a conclusion by impos- ing an indemnity on the defeated country, combined with the elation which a success- ful war produces, undoubtedly did much to encourage reckless trading, so that a year or two after the war Japan hal to undergo a financial crisis such as invariably follows over-production and speculation." This leads inevitably to the suggestion that, Japau baving brought a successful war to an unsatisfactory, or at least dis- appointing conclusion, the tendency now will be all the other way, towards stagna- tion of enterprise, a forecast not accepted or entertained by our contemporary, although it admits that "for the time being business is checked and trade depressed." The Jiji appears to think that bad as things are now, the outlook is worse; and attaches pessimistic importance to the calculation that Japan will now and for some time to come have to pay away in
243
than the alternating seasons. Trade is a kittle beast, affected by every rumour as readily as is the mercury in the libe. What is to the purpose now is to note that Japan and, incidentally, its investing friends are not to lose the benefits that should naturally accrue from the substitu- tion of a lasting peace for a lengthy war. There has been no "panic," ho violent fluctuations; and we have reasonable con- fidence in endorsing our contemporary's belief that "there will be a stcally revival of trade." A national mixed evil that some old-fashioned testators appear to imagine; and Japan will stand in good company while, her credit remains pledged. Japan's credit is not impaired by the peace terms; had her prospects are better than they were before the war.
*
the un-
CHINA'S 'IMMEDIATE FUTURE.
Daily Press, 5th October.) The race of prophets is not extinct. It has to-day representatives worthy and un- worthy. Of the worthy kind, we must undoubtedly number the Rev. TIMOTHY BICHARD, who has just been telling a Daily News interviewer that, in the year 1954 China will be "greater than Japan.
نور
a
Within half a century" was the phrase used by the famous missionary, so that it will be seen we do not misrepresent him. It is usually hell that any prophecy is safe unless a date be fixed: and in fixing period for the fulfilment of his interesting forecast, we fear the Rev. T. RICHARD has erred. The picture of China as a coming Power has been held up to us before. We have grown used to the sight of it. But to hear from such a notable authority that in A. D. 1935 the Chinese will have "learnt all that Europeans can teach them," and that they will then
get rid of their teachers, as Japan bas," is somewhat sur- prising. The statement that the Chinese
**
will have learnt so much—“all that Euro- peans can teach them"-in so compara- tively short a time implies more diligence and good-will on the part of the learners than we have been accustomed to give them credit for. It is commonly supposed that the feet of the European GAMALIEL have been at the service of the Chinese PAUL for rather more than thirty years already. Indeed, without speaking by the book, we fancy Dr. RICHARD has been casting pearls of wisdom for an equally lengthy term ;
and we should be sorry to learn that the Chinese have been trying to get rid" of their teacher. If they have, we feel certain it is not on the ground that they have learned all that this scholarly member of the English Baptist Missionary Society could teach them. Gentle badinage abandoning,
the British Goverament it has laboured, interest every year the sum of 84,200,000 RICHARD has been misreported, or that he
and the insecurity of the tenure, which yen. The Jiji considers that if new bon la forbade the expenditure of any capitalbeyond should be issued to replace those the necessities of the day. Weihai, it is outstanding, and noue be redeemed, the well to remember, faces the Pacific and it national credit must be affected ;
but this is If the is in connection more especially with not so certain as it appears. Pacific trade which does not pass Hong-prognostication of the Chronicle be correct, kong that its future will rest. The once that the indemnity disappointment (which lone Pacific, never ploughed from year's it says was not the real disappointment of end to year's end by a merchant keel, has the settlement) will breed a wholesome now become the highway of the nations. caution, and nothing worse, then the Jiji's There is well within the memory of many vision of dwindling revenue and swelling living residents in China the time when it liabilities need not be seriously considered. was uncrossed by a steamer. Now the map It is a truism to say that commercial pro- is scored with the numerous lines of regular gress of a regular and continuous sort is ocean steamers which within the last twenty better than spells of feverish speculation years have commenced to ply profitably on followed by periods of corresponding de- its bosom. Here really is the future pression." Unfortunately, it might as use opportunity of Weihai, Are we, for a fully be said that a constant depth of water philosophic fad, for it is nothing more, to on the sill would be better than bigh and cast the opportunity to the dogs
low tides; or a perennial autuinn better
•
we fear that either the, Rev. TIMOTHY
has, in keeping with his prophetic vein, been seeing visions. He says that the holding together of so pre-eminently numerous a people for over two thousand years means great powers of organisation Having often heard from Dr. RICHARD's colleagues that the China of to-day is practically the China of those dim nges past, and believing that powers of organisation imply the faculty of instituting system, we are unable to follow the reverend gentle. inan's reasoning. This long holding to. gether suggests to us rather great power for what the Americans call "staying put," which, being interpreted, means clinging to the status quo, , to things as they are. But now, according to the prophet, the Chinese are prepared to modify their laws and custom","To a certain extent ne
F1