34
THE POLITICAL SITUATION.
(Daily Press 11th July.j
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THE HONGKONG WEEKLY PRESS and
[July 15, 1905. the very men whose safety had been guar- anteed. The Black Sea fleet is in open mutiny. The Army seems ready to follow, and only the Cossacks are to be depended on; and they are at feud with the rest of the nation. Russia, in fact, as we stated « short time ago. is not in a position to make peace.
It is certain that Japan will demand an indemnity as some compensation for the cost of the war; but Russia has no money, and, what is worse, no credit. Of late she has been dependent on the generosity of her neighbours, France and Germany, but that is already almost exhausted Will she give a territorial guarantee? Other nations will look on jealousy, or alto- other forbid it. Russia is already pledged. Count MOURAVIEFF may agree to move out of Manchuria; but will the generals in command after the precedent of Khokand obey the stipulation? Count MOURAVIEFF ! the TSAR himself, may agree to surrender Vladivostock; but General LINIEVITCH may conceive that he understands better the position. So with every possible stipulation. Each department in the administration holds itself independent of the others; the Home Office looks askance on the Admiralty; both on the Foreign Office. Why should they submit to the dictates of the other? The TSAR has long been a negligeable quantity with all; yet he is the only possible boud of union between them.
I immediately thence arising, she would cer- tainly be found a consenting party. But an International Conference is one of those dangerous machines which if once called It is by no means easy to follow the into action is difficult to control, and is apt momentary trend of affairs in Europe; but to diverge into paths far removed from its there seems no reason to doubt flat on the original intention. Germany tells us now whole it is more peaceful than we should that the idea of the Conference was not of have been disposed to view it mt a few her raising, but proceeded from the SULTAN weeks ago. A good deal of this improved of Morocco, and that therefore" she could tendency is, no doubt, to be attributed to
not name its limits. As Germany has at the cautious behaviour of France with least made herself responsible for its public regard to German action in Morocco, but a ! appearance, this seems rather trifling, so good deal still is due to a clearer under-that the difficulty of the situation can standing of the exact position of affairs scarcely be looked upon as closed. generally England itself not very long In like manner, however correct may have ago, it may be remembered, was not alto-been the conduct of Japan, the Eastern gether at one with France on the subject of difficulty is still very much to the from Morocco, and it was only after a very full With the exception that she will demand and confidential discussion on the policy the retirement of Russia, and an indemnity being pursued by the latter that England for the cost of the war, Japan has carefully was able to announce her satisfaction and avoided making any committals. She has her willingness to support the policy of her shown her sincerity by naming her FOREIGN ally. It may be that Germany fancied that
MINISTER as Plenipotentiary, and declaring she had more grounds for her distrust than her readiness to send him to Washington afterwards turned out in be the case by the very first steamer. Russia likewise and in this case the willingness of France has shown her readiness to enter into peace LO enter into a calm discussion has
negotiations, and has appointed in Count possibly opened the way 10 a better
MOURAVIEFF one of the most distinguished understanding all round. One other
of her statesmen. She also has wisely, subject which has certainly had its effect
refrained from compromising herself hy in conducing to the present situation is also well worthy of note, and that prior statements of her intentions. Each is the attitude taken up by Japan since champion is armed with full powers from her recent naval victory. Both Russia and his Government to enter on the diplomatic Germany have been assiduously seeking tui contest; and so far there is nothing seem! misrepresent Japan. The KAISER in his ingly to stand in the way, and we may early days painted bis celebratel picture of expect in a few days, or weeks, to see the the Yellow Terror threatening the Cross of lists thrown open. Here, however, the equality of conditions ends. There is no Europe. It is difficult in after life to
doubt of the complete ability of the Japanese eradicate early impressions, and both conn-
Government to enforce on the country the tries certainly anticipated that the first use stipulations of any treaty arrived at. If made by Japan of her victory would be to
there be one thing above the other made proclaim from the housetops her superior prowess over the nations of the older cul apparent by the war, it is the complete unity of purpose between government and iivation. Japan has not shown the alightest external indication of any desire country, which has made necess not only towards undue self-laudation. On the con- the other hand in Russia the progress of
possible, but
(Daily Press, 12th July.) trary her self restraint has been as marked
events during the last twelve months has During last month we published a few as it has been wise, and the result has been
shown the complete divergence, not only notes relating to the difficulty encountered hown in the manner, dignified yet sympa between the nation at large and its govern- by the Shanghai anthorities in seeking to hetic, in which she received President
ment, but the hopeless incapacity of the make a good road to "the Hills." The ROOSEVELT's suggestions of peace. Japan really has no desire for war; it was forced several departments of state to unite in any entire correspondence has since been pub- common policy. This divergence is funda-lished in the Minutes of the Municipal upon her against her will, as the only way left of escaping national extinction. She mental, not accidental, and shows itself Council, and affords an excellent example has shown that she has no fear of it; and equally in the Palace, in the Army, the of the troubles and annoyances incidental to The all negotiations with a certain class of now that she has come out more successful Navy, and the Civil Government.
It was not, apparently, that the than she could have expected, she is also government of Russia is theoretically an Chinese. ready to show that she is perfectly willing autocracy, but antocracy has its limits, people of Chingpu were really averse to beyond which autocracy is impossible, and receiving the blessings of good highways, to lay down arms, under the sole proviso Russia in her recent expansion has already but that their "objections' were inspired that the peace shall be permanent. Even
exceeded those limits. This is well shown by those who should have known better. Continental Europe, with all its prejudices, has had to acknowledge this, and this change of sentiment has undoubtedly largely contributed to the improved feeling in Europe generally.
Still there are deep-seated causes which may interrupt the seeming harmony. France has apparently yielded under conditions to the KAISER's desire for a conference, and naturally the United States and Austria are quite willing to assist in a discussion which, acknowledging their position, would yet entail no responsibility on either. Eng. land, however, here stands in a very differ. ent position. Actually, she has larger interests in and about the Straits of Gibraltar than any of the other Powers; and in con- sequence, she definitely declined to take part in discussions which might place her in a wrong position as regarded her neigh bours. It is quite true that she as ardently as the others would hail an understanding which would bring Morocco under civilising influences: and if the Conference were to be confined to the discussion of this, and topics
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These facts are well known, yet it has been the practice to ignore them; but unfortunately they will crop up at the most inconvenient moment. They must, however,
come to the front in the discussions at Washington; so that however calm may be the present European political landscape, there is a small cloud on the Eastern horizon which may yet baffle the best laid schemes of the peacemakers.
THE TROUBLESOME TAOTAI,
KNAPPE,
of the Senior Consul, ΤΑΟΤΑΙ the Shanghai
in recent history: the capture of Khakand It will be strange if, as a result of the by General KAUFFMANN was in actual strong attitude contumacy of the direct orders of the TAR; Dr. and it was the starting point for still is not speedily brought to a knowledge of The first letter, as further advances eastwards. The massacre the error of his ways. at Vladoveschensk was never inspired published, is one from the Belgian Consul, from St. Petersburg, and the appointment M. D. SIFFERT, to the Municipal Council, by the Tot Admiral ALEXIEFF to the stating that the TAOTAI had demanded the practical Satrapy of the Far East was of instant stoppage of the road-making. The itself a sufficient acknowledgement that sub-magistrate of the district had reported autocracy had failed. Russia has made, in that the people were uneasy because the fact, the inevitable step from autocracy road surveyors had driven in pegs on or to satrapy, Admiral RozHDESTVENSKÝ, near to Chinese graves, always a source of
The sent to the East by the TRAR's personal trouble. "native gentry" and order to retrieve the military honour of "elders" petitioned against any foreign Russia, declined to discuss even with his road at all from Siawei to the Hills, but this also was quite usual. and formal. Imperial Master his plans, and seriously
general opinion of the Chines compromised the alliance with France. His The subordinates adopted similar methods in public" in sight of a possible "squeeze' dealing with him, and the result was the never antagonistic. battle of Tsushima. Nor is autocracy less laud, the Municipal Council had been of a failure at home. The TSAR gives his approached by "certain native residents word of honour to the workmen presenting to make the road; but the Council was not host, and his officers promptly imprisoned Chinese officials. a petition, but he had spoken without his proceeding with the work regardless of the They were making the
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