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CHINA'S REVENUE AFFECTED BY EXCHANGE.
(Daily Press, 13th March.) Although the annual report of the Ins- pector General of Chinese Customs, con- oerning China's foreign trade, begins by the statement that the war's effect upon the trade has been "of minor importance," it would be improper to ignore the fact that its effect upon exchange has been great; and as the two are inseparable, the first statement appears to demand considerable qualification. It may be correct to call it an indirect effect of the war, when war causes violent fluctuations in exchange, and these again cause trade depression; but the connection is none the less real and intimate, Therefore we hope that the Chinese authori- ties will be duly impressed by the pregnant sentence in this report, that “* no trade can stand such a strain under conditions in which even the wise foresight which settles exchange in advance may involve the opera- tor in a heavy loss; and it is high time that all interested in the prosperity of the trade of China-governments, banks, importing and exporting merchants, guilds, jobbers, and retailers-used such influence as they possess to further any method of reform which will ensure stability of exchange.' Unfortunately, there is too much attraction, in the element of gambling so introduced, for some of the persons named, who might otherwise be able to impart advice in quar- If ters where it would have influence certain merchants, and the banks, prefer the profits derivable from fluctuations of exchange to the increased and permanent earnings that would come from the increased trade consequent on a saner currency sys- tem, it is hardly to be wondered at that the Chinese officials should continue to be at-
[Apell 17, 1995,
THE HONGKONG WEEKLY PRESS AND
innumerable middlemen who connect him | the wide fabric of water to be arossed ; and finally with the foreign buyer are not ignor. the tables might have been turned indeed aut of the opportunities afforded for making if the Russian ships had managed to slip gains. Even in far-away Ch'êngtu, in past. When we remember the interval between Togo's departure and his arrival Szechuan, we are told, the exchange rates are received by telegraph; and the Chinese at Singapore, during which be was lost so far 08 the uninformed world was con- jobbers in the treaty ports, with whom the foreign buyer has to deal, miss none of cerued, the speculation arises whether by any chance his naval scouts have failed those opportunities. As the volume of sup-
to get into touch with him. The loug line plies from the interior depends entirely on the prices offered at the coast, and these of Russian ships could not escape the notice prices depend on exchange, it is not difficult of all these watchful cruisers. Is it possible that they have even met and sunk some of to see that the present system is not the one to encourage production for export. A them? This, in spite of ramour, is un- fall in silver would seem to promise encour likely, because the scouting oruisers' duty was not to fight ; and if there had been any agements to the producer; but here again the middleman has to be reckoned with; collision it could not have been concealed so and it is only too probable that any such long. The Times of India, as will be notiond advantage is retained by him as extra pro- by the extract reproduced elsewhere, does not believe that the Japanese ships reported fit, until he becomes wise enough to see that a greater production means greater at Singapore were part of Toɑo's own fleet; profit, and that it will pay him to advocate and at best the statement that they were was only a rumour. It is characteristic of the abolition of the system that offers such temptations, in order to encourage the their whole advance that some of the Rus sian ships should have digressed so far as greater turn-over.
the island of Banca, off Sumatra; and it may very likely be that Admiral Rota- DESTVENSKY is alive to the advantage of inducing Togo, by making him impatient, to deliver an attack so far from Japanese war harbours. That is, it would not be so much an advantage to the Russians as it would be putting the two fleets nearer to a level of disadvantage. If this surmise be warranted, there results a period of naval duelling by manœuvres, a war of waiting, which will prevent us from hearing for some time the exciting news we are all ngog for. The movements of British ships locally have something to do with the trend of events; but are not so intimately related as some seein to suppose. We presume that it will be the duty of some of them to watch the points where our Eastern cables land, in view of the obvious temptation that exists for the Russians to tamper with them for strategic reasons. now sufficiently inured to half apologies and commissions of enquiry to disregard niceties of conduct in such matters.
AWAITING THE BALTIC SHIP8.
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Russians are
(Daily Press, 14th April.) The absence of news of any naval fighting in the south seems to support the view that the Japanese prefer that the inevitable fight shall take place as near their home waters as may be. We have been publishing such local gossip as had intrinsic interest, if no weight of authority; and naval men have communicated some views which may or may not have been inspired by experience; but we fear that the first information that on high authority' will be a curt comes announcement that a collision has taken All else place, with such and such results. is futile. For instance, there was a general tracted by such fortuitous windfalls as that impression that having left Singapore, the apparent in the revenue of 1904. Changing next port of call for Admiral ROZEDEST the revenue into sterling terms, the report TENSKY would be, as a matter of course, the shows that in 1903 the revenue was, at the French port of Saigon. One seafaring man, average exchange of that year, £4,028,355; in support of this, treated one of our re- and that last year, also at average exchange, porters to a pretty little lecture on the possi- bilities of the fresh water in the river it was £4,514,019. Expressed in these
which at pre. there "killing the barnacles terms, a twelve per cent. increase is dis- closed; counted in Hk. Tls., the increase sent are compelling a snail's-pace grateful
It s ob to the supposed feelings of the officers of ANGLO-JAPANESE RELATIONS, was only a three per cent. one. vious that there was always a possibility of the coming Armada. The general expecta- tion of a Saigon visit doubtless was based the exchange going against any such en- hancement; and reversing the average rates on the assumption that the Russian ships of exchange for the two years, there would would there find a temporary sanctuary. This view is, of course, quite erroneous. have appeared a serious decrease in revenue,
However leniently the French might wish even with the same actual three per cent. increase shown in taels. It appears self- to interpret the laws of neutrality, they evident that, having to calculate in such could only harbour the squadron of their jutricate ways, the margins provided for | Ally at their own risk and peril. The very must always be greater than they need be act of sailing so far as Saigon, during the under a stable currency. No doubt this is state of belligerency, is in itself an attack to some a feature which fosters complacency directed against Japan; and even in Saigon, on account of the existing system, or lack after an invitation to come out, Admiral of system; but, as the report points out, Toco might be justified in arguing, as Lord it is also a serious restraint upon trade. NELSON did, that it is permissible to attack No real prosperity can therefore be looked the enemy in any place from which they for, out of China's trade with the outside may make an attack. Since Nossi Bé was not the end of its voyage, the Russian world, until the money passing between the
made what it was intended squadron may be said to have continued an parties is to be, a truthful token of real values. attack thence; and the same argument Throughout this report, we have ample would apply to Saigon. But, as we have indication of China's natural riches. Why, said, it is not to Japan's interest to do so, then, is such a productive country not so if (as they naturally suppose) the Russians well-off as its resources argue it should be intend to sail yet further north. If it had Because the price of Chinese products is been their policy to seize the first opportu not so much affected by the cost of produc-nity of attacking, it is obvious that the gal- lant ToGo should have hastened to Mada- tion in China as by the price to be realised in the world markets. This price, which gascar, and there accomplished his task should naturally be ruled by the law of before the Armada was augmented. Against supply and demand, is constantly affected that there was the risk of passing his by the rise and fall, or anticipated rises and enemy on the way. The narrow strip of falls, of exchange rates. The man who pro-cean that can be watched by even a large duces the goods to be exported may not be fleet with fast cruisers, moving towards a a student of exchange peculiarities; but me fixed objective, is after all a mere thread in
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(Daily Press, 15th April.) Although the Anglo-Japanese Agreement does not expire until the 30th January, 1907, the subject of its renewal, or of its abandonment in favour of a stronger alli- ance, is now being widely discussed. In the two countries immediately concerned, the question has been raised as one almost immediately political. In England, it is even taking rank with the party test ques- In view of the anticipated general tions. election, when it seems to be taken for granted that the swing of the political pen- dulum will place the present Opposition party in power, the Conservatives have been asking if the Liberals will renew the Anglo- Japanese Alliance. The manner of their asking seems to imply a conviction that the Liberals would not favour the idea, The Liberal retort, expressed particularly by Lord ROSEBERY, is to the effect that they would resume relations with Japan as a matter of course; and it was further stated that the Conservatives should not plume themselves upon the Agreement of 1902 28 a Conservative measure, because it origin- ated six or seven years before under a This, with other indica- Liberal regime
tions, goes to show that another alliance with Japan would be a popular measure in England. In Japan, many appear to desire, not merely a renewal of the existing agree- ment, but a far stronger one, a defensive 4*