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of the war with intense fascination as Russia's ultimate victory, they believed, would lead to Russia riding roughshod all over northern China and not just over Manchuria.
When, four days after the start of the war, China proclaimed her neutrality, England, France, Germany and Italy, all neutral powers, joined in suggesting to Russia and Japan that they avoid sending troops into Chih-li (Zhili - the Chinese metropolitan province), lest the Chinese Imperial Government should flee Peking. Both Russia and Japan agreed. The fact that at the outbreak of the war there were some five hundred Japanese instructors in the Chinese Army, having displaced many of the European instructors, might have complicated matters had not the belligerents and China appear to have disregarded the fact.
Westerners, too, were unable to predict the outcome and in the event made a number of contingency plans. An Imperial Maritime Customs memorandum produced in Shanghai in 1904, produced by the Statistical Department of the Imperial Maritime Customs (IMC) concerned plans to rearrange Chinese land tax as more than half of China's revenue was mortgaged for payment of foreign loans, leaving insufficient funds in the event of the Russo-Japanese conflict spreading further into China.
Contraband of war
Foreign ships' captains made a fortune running the blockade from Chinese ports into Port Arthur and other Russian ports along the coast of Manchuria. One German merchant realised a profit of £10,000 in three months on contraband cargoes carried to Port Arthur by a steamer of only 180 tons burden.
China, not fully comprehending the implications of trading with both belligerents found herself accused by both belligerents of contravening the concept of contraband of war. After considerable discussion Sir Robert Hart, the Inspector General of the IMC promulgated regulations to the effect that:
Contraband of war consists of purely military requisites, that is, arms and ammunition,