468
THE NORTHERN CRISIS.
(Daily Press, 22nd December).
The war scare has revived in an even more serious shape than before. It is six | days ago now that REUTER, on the strength of the Agency's information from Tokyo, pronounced the situation with regard to Russo-Japanese relations to be very gloomy, All the latest telegrams, from home and from the North alike, go to confirm this. Alone to the other effect do we hear that "8. Petersburg continues to be the most hopeful of a pacific solution of the Japanese difficulty." This is what we should expect of S. Petersburg-that is to say, official S. Petersburg, for it is not likely that we should hear of the opinions of any other section of the Russian capital. But we venture to think that the "hopefulness" of S. Petersburg is part of the diplomacy of the Russiau Government, which has all along heen protesting its confidence in a peaceful issue, while getting ready busily for war.
Russian faith of course has long been a byword, as in Roman times, with far less justice, was Punica fides. The folly of those who believe in Russian assurances has been demonstrated amply and often.
No admittedly barbarous State is more shame lessly mendacious. Yet by the etiquette of diplomacy the Powers continue to deal with Russia as with an honourable nation. Some of the Powers have the excuse that it pays them to do so; but there are some at least that have not. We published yesterday a summary by our Kobe correspondent of a semi-official article in the Tokyo Kokumin on the various conferences held by the Japa- nese Ministers concerning the questions in dis- pute with Russia. From this it appears that Japan's attitude has been perfectly consistent and straightforward from the first. At the last conference, which took place within the last ten days (from the 20th instant), the Ministers decided to adhere to their irreducible minimum-which is not stated, but which presumably includes Japanese supremacy in Corea as undoubted as Russia's in Manchuria and the opening of certain ports in Manchuria to trade. Should this be refused by Russia, the Kokumin says, Japan is fully equipped and ready for immediate action." The only meaning of this must be that Japan is prepared to land troops at once. It has been argued before that Japan is not likely to commence opera- tions before the spring; but if the Kokumin is correct, the contrary seems to be the case. On the Russian side, too, there is a change of plans announced. It is only a few days since we were told that the Russian squadron now at Bizerta, on the Northern coast of Tunis, would not leave for the Far East until the end of January. Now REUTER states that the battleship Oslabya, the cruisers Aurora and Dmitri Donski, and five destroyers under the command of Admiral URENIUS, will be reinforced by six destroyers in a few days and will then sail for this part of the world So important a movement cannot be passed over without challenge, if war is to come. If Japan does decide ou immediate action, as suggested by the Kokumin, it is most unlikely that this new Russian squadron will be allowed to join the Pacific fleet without an effort to stop it. Indeed, it is certain that in event of a rupture an effort would be made to intercept it. The coaling ques- tion would be the great problem then awaiting solution, and in this regard Japan would have an immense advantage in South China waters. Only with the aid of France could Russian warships expect to supply themselves south of their own ports, and
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THE HONGKONG WEEKLY PRESS AND
France is confronted by the terms of the Anglo-Japanese agreement.
Most interesting naturally to us in Hong- kong is the question what attitude Britain will take, if the worst happens and war does break out. Hitherto British influence has chiefly been used indirectly in restraining Japan. This is very right, but it must not be forgotten that it is Russian aggression, not Japanese, which we desire to check. It is too often overlooked that Russia's success in her designs in North-east Asia means not only the death-blow to Japan, but the ab- solute extinction of all but Russian influence in North China and Corea, the Russianisa. tion of the Gulf of Pechili, and the end of British trade in that quarter of the Far East. So far there has been no sign of the British Government taking special precau- tions in view of the crisis. Two more battleships, we were told, are coming out; but only one is on its way and the growing superiority of Russia's fleet in these waters is unproductive of auy effort on Britain's part. A demonstration of naval activity, perfectly pacific of course, could not fail to produce a great effect, but it is not made. In fact nothing seems to ruffle British Governmental calm. Yet. next to Japan, we stand to lose far more than any one nation or even any combination of European nations by the success of Russia's schemes.
We say
"Euro. pein because there is a non-European Power also concerned. Whether there are any hopes of the United States taking any action is most difficult to say. The treaty with China has been ratified whereby Moukden und Aatung are to be opened; and an U.S. warship has just been despatched to Corea on a very slight pretext. It is hardly possible that the States will consent to see a clause of their treaty with China nullified by Russia. But, on the other hand, hostility to Russia is not a very good party-ery for a Presidential election, and the time of that election is at band Moreover, there is Panama to a tract the a tention of all Americans. The States might prefer to step in at the end of a Russo-Japanese war. There is good prece. dent in international history.
"
11
[December 28, 1903
months ago. Only the wonderful patience of the Japanese Government and nation has managed to protract matters so long. It is impossible to hope, and also absurd to wish for an indefinite further protraction of the present strain. Our London corre spondent, in his telegram dated the 23rd instant, tells us that Great Britain and France are in active communication with Japan and Russia, and that mediation on their part is possible. Nevertheless, it is very hard to see how France and ourselves, though both most earnest in the desire to avoid a rupture which threatens to involve both, and perhaps destroy the greatly im- proved relations now existing between the two nations, can discover a satisfactory and lasting settlement between the two Powers th it are struggling for the lead in the North of Asa, There is such a gulf between Russia's pretensions and Japan's demands that it looks a superhuman task to bridge it ever. Were Russia more tractable the position of affairs would be very different. One of the really hopeful factors in the situation is the apparent adhesion of the Chinese to the Japanese side, which all the most recent news from the North appears to indicate. The North-China Daily News points out that the educated Chinese gene- rally took little or no interest in the war between China and Japan, but they seem curiously enough to be even more interested than the Manchus themselves in recovering Manchuria from the grasp of Russin. The importance of this is impossible to exagge- rate. A hostile China cuts at the com- munications between Port Arthur and Vladivostock with European "Russia.
At its full value it cancels the value of the Trans-Siberian line; at its least, it detaches a vast number of Russian troops from the front in North-East Asia. When writers indulge in prophesies about Russia adopting a Parthiau policy and retiring inland only to return in overwhelming force, they ignore the fact that the destruction of the railway absolutely stops advance overland and necessitates Russia secur- ing maritime
supremacy to counteract the blow. There has been a great deal of loose talk about the inevitableness of an ultimate Russian victory, What this is based on, we cannot conceive. Nevertheless (Daily Press, 25th December.) we should be very sorry indeed to see Japan The news arriving by way of London with insist on war, except as the last resource, regard to the existing crisis in the Far East that is, to avoid relegation to the rank of has within the past few weeks been "see- secondary Powers. And we trust it is not sawing between good and bad, between necessary again to insist that the downfall peace and war. It is difficult even to make of Japan would effectually sweep away with out what the general opinion of the better it the remaining traces of British influence informed home Press is on the chances of a in Northern Asia. Britain cannot afford to pacific issue. Quite recently the prosp 3 t see Japan crushed by Russia. Apart from has been declared gloomy., War has been all questions of honour and the obligations judged possible, probable, even inevitable. of treaties, it would be a most disastrous Yesterday, however, REUTER's second tele- step, politically and commercially, for gram, dated the 22nd instant, ancounced a Britain to acquiesce in the absolute para- more hopeful feeling regarding the Far East mountey of Russia in the north of this in Japan itself and the absence of informa.great continent of Asia. It is a welcome ton in London of the imminence of war, piece of intelligence that H.M.S. King This sounds satisfactory, but unfortunately Alfred, the powerful sister ship of the it only carries on the see-saw movement of Leviathan, is coming out here soon, and may rumour of which we have spoken. From remain with the British squadron on the the North we have not received any news
station. H.M.S. Centurion may be in Hong- either way since our Kobe correspon-lents' kong in about a week's time, a fact which message of the 20th instant. In Hongkong | we overlooked when writing on the 22nd it seems the generally accepted idea in ser- vice circles, especially among those who have visited the North lately, that an out- break of hostilities cannot be avoided and, indeed, that it must occur very soon. It is felt that the situation is now such that only two alternatives remain, that Rusia must give way or Japan must present an ultima- tum with which Russia will refuse to com. ply-not a very different situation, it may be remarked, from that of a couple of
instant on the neglect to increase the British fleet in these waters. Nevertheless, wa should still compare unfavourably with Russia, more particularly when her ships now in the Mediterranean arrive.
Christmas is look-d on and written of com.
monly as a period of peace. Unluckily it has far more often of late years been a season of alarms aud of threats of war, if not of actual warfare. The year 1903 closes like many of its immediate predecessors amid