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THE SITUATION IN THE NORTH.
THE HONGKONG WEEKLY PRESS AND
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[December 5, 1903.
It bas
co-operate in CHIH-TUNG has been appointed Gene- ! the hope that France would “ ralissimo o: the forces to oppose the Russians the work of peace, in order to bring about a (Daily Press, 28t: ovember.) in Manchuria, in command of the first line happy and innocuous solution of the ques- The foreign policy of the Chinese Govern- of defence and to organise succeeding armies tions awaiting settlement in the Far as well went may, at the present moment, with of foreign-drilled troops. Without outside as in the Near East." About the same great correctness, be described as "wobbly." assistance, it is needless to say, the Chinese time Count LAMSDORFF, Russian Foreign The Empress Dowager and her advisers line of defence would be broken by the Minister.informed M. DELCASSE that the dis- appear to be bulding between two opinions Russian army almost as easily as a spider's pute with Japan was or the way to arrange-
swayed by the hopes and fears of each web..
ment and that matters in, connection with day as it comes. One day the Court is
Meantime the position grows daily more Manchuria would soon be settled. In the keen for a Japanesc alliance, and war with tense in Japan. On the 10th inst. a great meanwhile, as REUTER has told us, three- Russia; the next they are filled with doubt meeting of nobles, gentry, an inerchants, quarters of the whole Russian fleet is either
į whether, after all, it would not be safer to was held in Tokyo to consider the situation, massed in the Pacific already or on its way side with the Northern Colossus, A Peking and after some very resolved speeches, de-out hither, and the number of troops in telegram to the Kobe Herald, dated the 8th claring that Japan could not accept an North-east Asia is being constantly aug- inst., states that Prince Su had laid his injurious peace, the following resolution was views on the question before the Empress passed without a single dissentient :-"We Dowager to the effect that, in his opinion, it i believe that to suffer the situation to Manchuria were surrendered to Russia if" remain unsettled as at present is not the would inevitably entail dismemberment of
way to safeguard our country's interest or the Chinese Empire. It would be well
to preserve the peace of the Far East. therefore, for the Chinese Government to "Therefore the whole country unites in induce Japan to assist in preserving the in-¦". urging that the officials concerned have tegrity of Manchuria, au lin return accord
recourse at once to a decided policy." to that Power some special privilege in the The Japanese are weary of Russian excuses province He also advocated the opening and procrastination, aud have no faith in of negotiations with Russia for the fulfil Russian assurances; consequently, while ment of the agreement for the evacuation of profoundly anxious to maintain peace if Manchuria, and in the event of her refusing possible, they are not prepared to maintai to comply with this demand, to join Japan it at aup price. The danger is therefore in declaring war against her. The Japanese that one day Muscovite eagerness will Minister at Peking is said to have had a precip tats a fresh forward movement which secret conference with Prince CHING and will lead to hostilities. Both countries are Grand Councillors CHU HUNG-CHI and Larned to the teeth; both have laid up CHUAN-LIN and the Viceroys YUAN SHI vast stores in readiness for war while pro- KAI and CHANG CHIH-TUNG on the 2nd inst., fessing the most earnest desire for peace, which lasted two hours and a half. It is and unless both are merely playing a big also stated that the Empress Dowager has game of bluff it is almost inevitable that a been urged by her Ministers to conclude an day will come when the torch will, perhaps alliance with Jara, and it seemed at one inadvertently, be applie 1 to the combustible time pretty cortain that evertures to that forces. The fact that it is generally end would be made. Some of the Censors believed in Japan that Russia is purposely have also presented patriotic memorials to provoking the Japanese Government is not the Throne advocating war to the death calculate to have a pacific effect in the with Russia for the preservation of the in- land of the Rising Sun, where the popula- tegrity of the Empire, and one of them sug-tion have for some time been eager to measure gested, as to ways and meas, that it would be well to stop all present schemes relating to reform and the establishment of schools for instruction in Western learning, and to apply the money to the purchase of arms and ammunition.
Indeel there 18 abundant evidence that, in North China at any rate, there is strong | untagonism to Russia, ani that if a really able and patriotic leader appeared, a deter- mined effort would be made to evict the Russians from Manchuria.
But the strang man is hot there, and the strong woman is. The Emperor Dowager is supreme, and while one day she is inclined to listen to anti-Russian counsels, on the next she gives her car to more timid advice. The latest report, made on a reliable authority, is to the effect that the notorious eunuch L LIEN-LING has got Her Majesty's ear and has been strenuously urging her not to listen to Prince. Su's dangerous advice, but to patch up an agreement with Russia as soou as possible. Th) Emperor is said to have all'along been strongly in favour of the Japanese, and the Empress Dowager was for some time favourably inclined to that course, but since the persuasions of the eunuch L, Her Majesty has become very undecided. Very little, probably, would turn the balance, and if war should break out between Japan and Russin, the Chinese -overnment wouli throw in its lot with the one that scored the first great succeBS.
Meantime the talk at Peking is distinctly warlike, and, though very lit le importance is attached by foreigners to the line the Chinese take, since their vacillation is as apparent as their weakness, yet this vapour. ing is a sign of Chinese opinion and inclination. It is reported that CHANG
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mented. How are we to reconcile feverish war preparations with pacific declarations? Si vis pacem para bellum is an old motto, but it is somewhat cynical, and we cannot imagine that Russia is likely to plead it in defence of her present conduct. been pointed out in the Times that, in virtue of the new dispositions taken in S. Petersburg in connection with the recently founded Viceroyalty of the Far East, the affairs of Russia in this part of the world are no longer within the jurisdiction of the Foreign Office at S. Petersburg, and that the new Department sees bent on keeping its own secrets as far as possible. Still the movements of troops and ships do not depend on the will of the Far Eastern Department, but must be with the full sanction of S. Petersburg. How the incon- sistency of Russia's words and acts is to be explained, we could not attempt to say, though there is the very obvious hypothesis that the words are merely meant to deceive. This, of course, involves the supposition that the Tsar has lent himself to the designs of his Ministers, either consciously or un- consciously. We can hardly think it could be consciously. If he too has been deceived then the situation is more serious still, for while his good faith is generally accepted he is also expected to know what his Minis-
their strength with Russia. The Mikado'sters are doing. Government, however, have shown a wise and commendable prudeuce, and have evidently determined to exhaust all the resources of diplomacy before allowing the country to drift into a struggle which would be fraught with such tremendous conse- quences,
RUSSIA'S PACIFIC INTENTIONS
(Daily Press, 3ru December.) COUNT LAMLORFF, our London corre- spondeat inf ras us, is reported to have just made a speech declaring the pacific
Other telegram
intentions of Russia.
as ert that the prospect of a peaceful settle- ment of the present crisis in the Far East are good. The mail which arrived yesterday from homme indicated that a month ago the highest Russian authorities were endeavour. ing to persuade France directly, and the rest of Europe indirectly, that peace was the one great desire of the S. Petersburg Government. On the 30th October M. LOUBET con- municated to the Cabinet Council held that day at the Elysée, in Paris, the text of a letter receive by him from the Tsar, in wh ch the latter expressed his satisfaction at what bad recently happened in France, including the recent agreement with Great Britain, in which he saw a new plelge for the maintenance of general peace, which is the constant aim of his policy, and beuce an allied nations, sure of one another, should additional reason why the frien lly and at every opportunity continue to show the perfect harmony of their views, and their solidarity, based on their mutual sympathy and their respective interests." The letter is also said to have expressed
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It has been plain for some time that Russia earnestly desires to persuade France that the interests of both lie in the same direction. Ouly six weeks ago the Novoe Vremya argued that Russia can rely on nei her Japan nor China, as the interests of both clash with those of Russia, and that France is the only Power whose position is identical to that of Russia, and whose in- terests are the same. Therefore, the Novoe Vremya says, every Russian in the Far East must develop and extend the Franco- Russian Alliance, for it is so rich in possibilities and so full of importance to Russia at every critical moment of the lat ter's existence." This the French are not disposed to deuy. But some of them at least would like to know what France gets out of the alliance to make up for the very cleir benefits which accrue to Russia. Not-
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even in commercial matters docs France find any adequate returu, while in political affairs the advantage is hugely in favour of Russia. If the will dreams of French expausionists in South China were to sue- ceed-and there is more than a suspicion that the "forward" policy a very shortly to be revived-then Russia might repay Friuce by lacking up her schemes with moral support, as it is called. Such policy would embroil France directly with Great Britain, but of this the expansionists are careless, for one of the bases of their conduct is violent the French Government is prepared to let Anglo-phobia. We are loth to believe that the intriguers of the Colonial Party once more plunge it into difficulties; but, as we have said, there is ground for suspicion that trouble may be brewing. We may have something more to say about this shortly.