THE RECORD OF THE YEAR.
(Daily Press, 1st January.) When the Twentieth Century, of which the year just over was the second, comes to be reviewed as a whole, we may be certain that 1902 will be considered among the nore eventful years.
Much has occurred during its course which must help to shape the history of the world, alike in the Far East and elsewhere. At the present day two events seem to stand out prominently among all others, and we think that it is not only Britons who will allow this. First in importance, there was the end of the great South African War, formally notified by the signature of peace of the 31st May, whereby a struggle which had raged for the greater part of three years and had hampered to a most serious extent the general policy of Great Britain, was brought to a successful termination; now, as Mr. CHAMBERLAIN just declared at Durban, the Dutch have accepted the paramountcy of the British fing, and what can longer separate the two nations? And secondly there was the Anglo-Japanese Agreement, signed on the 30th January, whereby Britain departed from her traditions of isolation and allied herself with the newest of the Powers. Both these occurrences were hailed by Britons in the Far East, as at home by all clear-thinking people, with expsessions of deep gratification. Out here it is felt that Great Britain is able once again, if wisely guided, to strive for her former proud position in this part of the world. But great as both these events were, there was another which momentarily attracted more attention all over the world. We refer to King EDWARD's illness and the postponed Coronation, which in June caused all hearts to be full of apprehen- sion. Fortunately it was not very long before fears were relieved, His Majesty's constitution and courage triumphed, and early in August the whole of the British Empire was able to unite iu rejoicings over the ceremony of crowning, the King- Emperor, while among the other nations hardly a single discordant voice was raised. Though the Coronation, as ultimately carried out, was not as gorgeous as it would have been, there is no doubt that the sympathy for the central figure was rendered practically universal by his narrow escape from death. Among those who evinced the warmest concern was His Majesty the German Emperor, and if anything could have undone the effect of the anti-British campaign in Germany during the South African War it would have been the Kaiser's courtesy and solicitude. Un happily evidence is abundant that Britons were too deeply offended over the vile calumniation of the army in South Africa to forgive the traducers for the sake of their ruler. Time, it is to be hoped, will al hethe breach, but it is plain from the dissatisfaction at home over Anglo-German co-operation against Venezuela that the time is not yet come. The Venezuelan affair, which at first looked dangerous on account of susceptibilities in the United States, now seems likely to reach a peaceful settlement. It was hoped by the European Powers that President ROOSEVELT would undertake the arbitration of the dispute, but it is apparently to go to the Hague Tribunal. That disappointment has been freely expressed over the President's refusal shows how highly he is esteemed. Last year we prophesied that he would be to weak President of the United States, and our prediction has been abundantly fulfilled. The main danger is that his strength must bring him into conflict with one of the
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THE HONGKONG WEEKLY PRESS AND
strongest forces in the world-that of 'no trust in China's promises. Among money, as exemplified in the great Trusts themselves the European nations have Combines." The struggle can but shown an extraordinary amount of distrust be a terrible one, demanding a man of far in matters concerning China. Owing to more than average strength and character. this, Tientsin was not handed back until Turning to the Far East, we find that August; while Shanghai, in spite of the 1902 has been fruitful in promises of great, promises given to Liu KUNG-YI before his improvements in the state of affairs, but death, is only now being completely the end of the year sees these promises still evacuated. The intrigues of the time- unfulfilled. Three very important agree serving Prince CHING with Germany ments (apart from that between Great undoubtedly delayed very considerably Britain and Japan) were signed during the the evacuation of Shanghai. This month twelve months, the Manchurian Convention, the Settlement, freed of its unnecessary the Anglo-Chinese Commercial Treaty, and garrisons, will be able to pay attention to the Franco-Siamese Treaty. The last the subject of comm- reial advance. Wei- uamed compact, which was signed on the haiwei, Britain's latest acquisition in these 7th October, appeared to all but the French seas, must also look to a commercial future. Colonial party to be very favourable to After an extraordinary record of vacillation France; but at least it was an honest attempt the home Government decided not to make to get rid of the dangerous state of friction a fortress or an efficient naval base of the 1 between France and Siam. Whether it will place, but to maintain it merely as a san. be ratified seems doubtful, so loud in their atorium and summer resort for the fleet. expressions of discontent are the advocates Yet with the Colonial Office in charge and of an ever aggressive policy on the Indo- under the rule of Mr. J. H. STEWART late Colonial Chinese frontiers. It is yet possible that LOCKHART, Hongkong's
i serious troubles may arise over the Siainese Secretary, Weihaiwei may still have a future question. The Mauchurian Convention, more glorious than that of a which was signed on the 9th April last, watering-place. alone has begun to take effect. That it was a very one-sided affair, our readers are well aware. The terms imposed on China were very hard, but in return the evacuation of Manchuria by instalments was guaranteed. What this evacuation means the Times correspondent at Peking has revealed. The Russian troops have retired to all the strategic points of the country which they have evacuated and dominate it as completely if they had remained in avowed full possession. Manchuria is, in fact, to all intents and purposes a Russian province. The MACKAY Treaty, sigued on the 5th September, but still un- ratified, has been clained as a great achive- ment, and its originator las received encomiums without number. It must seem to us here in Hongkong that until that Treaty, with its promises of the abolition of lekin, etc., becomes an accomplished fact, its merits can only be discuss academically, Many commercial men of the highest authority do not believe that it will come into operation in its present form: there are too those who do not think it would be the panacea it is supposed to be, even if it were strictly carried out by China. was imagined by some that when the Emperor KWANG HSU returned to Peking on the 7th January, 1902, the way was paved for the regeneration of China. It only
conclude the remained to
Commercial Treaty and then China under a new régime would start on the path of progress, We need hardly say that these optimists were not generally accepted as trustworthy prophets. How little they were able to judge the future has been shown in the twelve months just now elapsing since the Emperor's return to the Capital. The reactionaries are almost as much in power as before the flight from Peking. H. M. KWA G Hsu is still a nonentity. Commerce labours under nearly all the old restric. tions. In August inst two particularly brutal murders of British missionaries occurred at Chengchow, in Hunan province, which almost led to a diplomatic rupture between Great Britain and China. Com- pensation has been made, but very tardily. To add to her misfortunes Chia, never rich in honest officials, has recently lost one great man in LIU KUNG-Yt and another inau whom all Europeans who came in contact with him esteemed, TAO Mu, late Viceroy at Canton. Their successors will be hard to find, and without upright officials in the important posts the Powers can put
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For Hongkong, 1902 has been one to be remembered. Commercially the year has been eminently unsatisfactory, several causes combining to accentuate the difficul- | ties created by a fluctua'ing and declining exchange. To the merchant, the middle- man, and the retailer alike, it has been a year of anxiety and worry, operations resulting in
In the market for piece scanty profits. goods semi-stagnation has ruled for the most part, a hand-to-mouth business for immediate requirements being the best that can be recorded. The tightness of money, the irstability of exchange, the partial failure of crops, the disturbed condition of the interior of both the Kwang provinces, and the increase of taxation consequent on the indemnity imposed upon the Chinese Government by the Foreign Powers have operated to restrict demand for all classes of cotton and woollen goods, more especially the better makes, which the decline in the value of silver has placed beyond the reach of all but the opulent. The traile in yarns has been equally uaremunerative, so much so that two large mills in Bombay have closed already and more are expected to follow. The decline in this important import is distinctly traceable to the depreciation of silver. In opium there has been a fairly large business done, principally in Bengal drug, due, however, to exceptional causes, namely the partial failure of the poppy crop in Yunnan and consequent dearness and scarcity of the native drug, and partly to the speculation created by an attempt happily defeated by the vigorous policy of Sir ERNEST SATOW-to raise the duties on foreign opium by about one hundred per cent. The trade in kerosene oil which is a steadily growing one, was barely maintained in 1902, the failure of crops and the dis turbances in the Delta having served to check the imports into Kwangtung. In general goods the trade has
through the constant been restricted variations in exchange, leading to a marked reduction in many classes of imports. same cause has had a malign influence on exports, the difficulty of arranging exchange being a serious matter, prejudicially affect- ing business. The export of silk has been quite up to the average, Ust the dollar price has risen pari passu with the fall in the white metal. In sundry exports there has been little change, the quantities being
also
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