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THE BREAKING-UP OF CHINA,
THE HONGKONG WEEKLY PRESS AND
[December 8, 1897:
the programme attributed to the three Powers | Government and the carving up of the empire were carried out in its entirety it would not is not yet quite ripe steps ought at least to, Important developments are taking place necessarily be prejudicial to our commercial be taken to secure an indefeasible lien on in the Far East. The news that Russia, interests, and our political interests would be whatever territory Great Britain may Germany, and France have agreed upon a better served by looking to our own develop deem it necessary to acquire ultimately for joint policy and that each is to take a slicement and taking what we require for our the protection of her vast commercial inter of territory is surprising only by reason of selves than by trying to put spokes in the ests in the country. Also, as the goodwill of its suddenness. The breaking up of China wheels of our neighbours.
Great Britain must still count for something has been predicted for years past and the
in connection with the schemes of the other events of the last few years have strength
Powers, guarantees against differential tariffs ened the popular disbelief in the stability of
should be sought. Provided we are allowed to the existing Government. It was not gen
compete on equal terms the establishment of erally anticipated, however, that the end
Russian sovereignty in Manchuria and of Ger- was quite so near, or that it would be
man sovereignty in Shantung would be greatly brought about in precisely the way the news
to the advantage of trade in general, includ- published to-day would seem to indicate.
ing British trade. Another question that We do not think that news is to be dis- it
suggests itself is whether the time has not arrived when Great Britain should abandon her attitude of neutrality in respect of the allotment of railway concessions and insist upon having a fair share for her own nationals. Russia by diplomatic pressure has secured a monopoly of railway cou- struction in Manchuria, France by the same means has secured for a French Company a contract for railway construction in Kwangsi, and now we find Germany demanding a railway monopply in Shantung. Hitherto England has used no pressure to secure railway contracts, but has left China free to dispose of them as she thought best, which means s'mply giving them to the parties that can secure the strongest. diplomatic support; and other nations have had no scruple or hesitation in using their ́ diplomacy for that purpose. Great Britain's policy of neutrality in the matter may be very dignified, but so far does not seem to have been very profitable. If other nations are to insist upon having railway monopolies would it not be well for Great Britain to secure a monopoly of railway construction, say, in Mid-China and the province of Kwangtung?
un-
has never given evidence of military capacity and is now, we hear, a decrepit old man, almost bed-ridden and having to be carried in a litter when he wishes to move from place to place. Such is the man who has been selected to turn the Germans out of Kinochau. A couple of gunboats have been sent to escort him to Canton from his home in Kwangsi.
What China may have to say as regards the disposition of her territory is a matter of small importance. Her extreme weakness is shown by the fact that in this hour of her extreme peril the veteran LIU YUNG-FU, the old Black Flag leader, has been called from his retirement, being regarded by the Chinese as their ablest warrior, because he credited in the main, though no doubt gave the French a little trouble in guerilla warfare amongst the mountain fastnesses of should be read with some modification of the Tonkin border. It was Liu who went detail. Germany has already taken posses- to Formosa to hold the island against the Ja- sion of Kiaochau Bay and is likely to re-
panese and who distinguished himself by run- main there, but the report that she is toning away when the enemy approached. He annex the whole province of Shantung we should be inclined to regard as premature, the fact probably being that she simply in tends, with the concurrence and support of France and Russia, to make her influence predominant in the control and develop- ment of the province while leaving the native administration in operation der German guidance. Russia is already predominant in Manchuria and is rapidly becoming so in Korea, and in time no doubt those countries will become Russian in name and fact, but whether formal an- nexation is to be entered on immediately seems still problematical. As to France taking Fokien and Formosa, it is rather difficult to know what she could do with the first named province or how she would main- tain the necessary force to hold it in subjection; while with regard to Formosa, while the Chi- nese inhabitants of that island might possibly welcome any European Power as their masters instead of Japan, it would be no light task to dispossess the latter Power by force, and she would hardly yield, without a struggle, even to the combined pressure of Russia, Germany, and France, It would seem, however, that a conflict between Russia and Japan cannot be long delayed, and Germany and France have no doubt agreed to give their support to Russia, France taking Formosa as her reward should Japan be crushed.
THE GERMAN DEMANDS ON CHINA AND THE POLICY
OF GREAT BRITAIN.
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RUSSIA'S COMMERCIAL METHODS
Reuter's telegram published in another column gives further particulars of the German demands on China. These include a large indemnity, the erection of a Cathe- dral, the punishment of the officers re- sponsible for the recent outrage, a railway monopoly in Shantung, and the cession of Kiaochau as a coaling station. China's finances are in rather an embarrassed posi- tion at present, but no doubt the indemnity will be duly arranged, as also the erection IN ASIATIC COUNTRIES of a Cathedral and the punishment of the guilty officers. The cession of Kinochau is An article in the Times of India bears the evidently a bitter pill, but that, too, will ominous title "Our Vanishing Trade with Central Asia." The cause of the vanish- have to be swallowed. China's refusal to discuss the demands until Kiaochau is evac-ing is Russian competition, and in view of uated mere piece of bluff, for she Russia's advance in Manchuria and Korea has no option but to submit, or, if she it is well that merchants of other nationali- attempts resistance, it will only go to swell ties should take note of the changes that the amount of the bill she will ultimately have taken place in other territories that have to pay. The demands also include a have come under her influence. The Russian railway monopoly in Shantung, which is communications with Central Asia are in probably the foundation for the repor general superior to those of India and are received from the North the other day becoming still more so as the Siberian Rail-
the province was to the effect that
way progresses. With that phase of the to be annexed outright. If annexation subject, however, we do not propose to deal, were intended the present would be but simply to note the commercial and fiscal a good opportunity to enforce it, but it arrangements by which Russia is ousting the will probably serve Germany's purpose bet- British and Indian trade. The question of ter for the time being to establish a virtual communications is a matter for the Indian protectorate over the province, allowing the Government to deal with, and no doubt nominal sovereignty still to remain with efforts to place India as nearly as possible China. This would lead to the development on an equality with Russia in that respect, of the province's resources and a large exten- by the improvement of the roads over the sion of its foreign trade, and when China mountain passes, will be continued. breaks up the territory would fall naturally good deal has been done in that direction to the share of Germany.
in the past, and much more may be done. Russia's commercial methods are, however, a matter of local interest, since she is daily becoming more influential in the North and the effects of her tradal· way of the acquisition of the small strip of competition in markets that have hitherto territory necessary for the rectification of the been supplied chiefly with British goods boundary of this colony. The policy may is likely to make itself severely felt originally have been a good one in the ab- before very long. "It may be premised,"
that all hope
of stract, but if the other Powers refuse to adopt says the Times of India, it, and act in direct opposition to it, it is im- retaining a footing in the Asiatic provinces "of Russia has gone. It is said that mer- possible for Great Britain to maintain it alone, and we must play for our own handchants from Andijani, in Ferghana, have according to the reshuffling of the cards. If the time for the deposition of the Chinese
In the event of any breaking up of China the province of Kwangtung and the Yang- tsze Valley should fall to the share of Eng- land. It is satisfactory to note that in the programme credited to the Tripartite Alli- ance neither of these regions is included, a fact which may perhaps be taken to indicate that the Powers concerned wish to carry out their designs without coming into direct conflict with British interests. If it be true that France is to have Fokien, that would be a wedge interposed between our northern and southern spheres of in- fluence, and in that respect would be un- welcome, which is possibly the chief: reason why it has been selected, but the difficulties arising on that score may be left to be dealt with when they arise. Although no official information has been received in Hongkong, It has been the policy of Great Britain so far as can be ascertained, as to the pro- hitherto to support the integrity of China, gramme attributed to Russia, Germany, and and it is the scrupulous observance of that France, it has for some time past been under-policy that has hitherto chiefly stood in the stood that important developments might shortly be expected, and the fleet has, we hear, been warned to hold itself in readiness. That it will be called upon to do anything more than police duty for the protection of British interests is, however, improbable, as it is not likely England would go to war for the protection of China, and, however much we might sympathise with Japan, we are not called upon to fight her battles for her. If
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been forbidden to go to Ladakh in future, " and it is an undoubted fact that a customs