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RUSSIAN POLICY IN THE FAR
EAST.
Whatever may be said of the morality of Russian policy in the Far East no one can question its general con- sistency. For the moment its course may be directed by a sudden emergency such as the recent intervention in behalf of China against Japan, when the latter had within her grasp the territory known as the Regent's Sword in the Liaotung Peninsula, but the Chinese have never, we imagine, for a moment deluded themselves into believing that the Government of the CZAR had relin- quished on that account the aims and am- bitions of the last two hundred years.
Even the fact that appearances then seemed em- phatically to dispose of the belief firmly held, up to that date, that China's emergency was Russia's opportunity, could not blind Peking officials to the truth that their great neighbour only intervened for the furtherance of ends otherwise unattainable. Nor do Muscovite statesmen imagine for an instant that because Russia and her allies baulked the victorious Japanese and pre- vented them establishing themselves in an impregnable position in the southern corner of Manchuria, the Chinese Government believe that the act was prompted by con- sideration for China or by hostility to the Japanese. The Chinese, no doubt, were duly thankful that Russian self-interest com-. pelled that Power to intervvene, and that French and German jealousies prompted each of those Powers to precipitately range themselves in support of the Great Bear, but they did not mistake the motives that influenced this to them timely interposition. They accepted the relief it brought, but without thanks and without gratitude. They recognised at a glance that Japan, by her success, had become a menace and an obstacle to Russian aims, and for that rea- son, and out of no sympathy with China, was Japan deprived of her spoils, and the integrity of the Chinese empire on the main- land once more preserved.
[March 26, 1896.
72
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THE HONGKONG WEEKLY PRESS AND
rather served to bluff all the Western pending the settlement of the Yunnan Powers and to impress them with a false frontier. It is not improbable, however, estimate of the strength and latent energy that the Chinese may anticipate their legal of China. To some extent perhaps the obligations in this instance and open the Peking Government gained, inasmuch as river forthwith, as it would be to the this diplomatic triumph over Russia greatly advantage of the Peking Government, if assisted them in their dealings with the not to that of the Provincial Government, other Treaty Powers, enabling them to take, to do 80. A8 to the edict which a firm stand against all demands for redress has been issued, Reuter tells us a great for injuries suffered or breaches of the deal less than we would like to know. Treaties. This position of obstinate if Is the river to be opened only to passive resistance to Western pressure was Wuchow, or beyond, and what other towns, still further strengthened by the miserable if any, beside Wuchow are to be declared failure of the French attempt to exact satis- treaty ports? These are questions that at faction in 1884-5 for the invasion of Tonkin once suggest themselves, but to which no by Chinese troops.
answer is as yet forthcoming. And bound But when in 1894 Japan stripped the up with the West River question is the lion's skin from the obstinate but cowering question of transit passes. Supposing Wu- form of the Manchurian ass, the illusion so chow to be the limit, the value of the con- bravely kept up was once and for ever cession will be largely determined by the dispelled. Where before respect was felt decision whether goods can be carried for vaguely imagined strength, actual further under the protection of transit experience has begotten contempt for passes or whether the existing squeeze proved pusillanimity, corruption, and in-system is to continue. It is probable that competence. The Peking Government may at present, even if allowed to do so, steamers continue as mulish and as intractable as of would not try to proceed beyond Wuchow, old, but it is at least known that this for the navigability of the upper reaches of obstinacy has nothing at the back of it, no the river by steamers is as yet uncertain. reserve of fighting strength, little power of That, however, constitutes in itself no suffi- resistance to force. When the time comes cient reason why towns situated higher up for the next Russian advance it will not be should not be opened to foreign trade, checked by any over estimation of the which could be carried on if necessary resources of the Chinese Government. The in native craft, as in the case of Chung- time for that advance is perhaps hardly king. ripe; the great Trans-Siberian Railway has first to be completed, but in the meantime we may expect to see some signs of move- ment in Turkestan. Indeed it is already re- ported that the Mahomedans in Kashgaria are preparing for a new struggle, and Russian troops are being massed on the frontier. If this region again becomes the theatre of a sanguinary war and the Russians feel com- pelled to step in once more to occupy and administer the country, we may be sure they will not again surrender it to China. The Kashgarians would vastly prefer the rule of the CZAR to that of the Son of Heaven, and the Russians would have no difficulty in holding the territory. A conflict with China would morcover afford Russia a fine pretext for the acquisition of the very ter- ritory from which, by the aid of France and Germany, she so astutely excluded the Japanese. It is quite possible that the Peking Government may be counting on Great Britain as an impediment to such an advance, but they will be wise not to do so. What can Great Britain hope for from China? The latter country has shown her utter helplessness against attack, she has abundantly proved her bad faith and selfish indifference to all Treaty obligations, and it would, therefore, hardly be worth while to act as her champion. Russia, on the other hand, is manifestly only fulfilling her destiny in endeavouring to push southwards to an unfrozen sea where her new railway will find a terminus at a port open all through the year.
Possibly, if the truth were to be told, the Peking Government only regard Russia with augmentel suspicion since this episode. It is so entirely contrary to Russian policy and practice to do anything from mere good will or without ulterior designs that the man- darins are probably still more closely on their guard against some unexpected deve- lopment in which the Russians will claim some fresh reward for their enforced assist ance. Ever since, in 1860, the Russian Government enlarged their boundaries on the Amoor by the addition of what was practically a province at the expense of China, at a time when she was unable to effectively resist, the Chinese Government have watched with deepest distrust every movement along the far-reaching northern frontier, and, if not armed to resist, have at least been ready to attempt to thwart any further advance by their great neighbour. The check administered to Russia by the Treaty of 1881, negotiated by the Marquis TSENG after that concluded by CHUNG How had been repudiated at Peking, is not likely to be forgotten by either party. Russia yielded on that occasion because she did not appreciate China's weakness, and China won by persistence and craft what she could never have gained by force of arms, the retro- cession of the Kuldja. It may be doubted whether that agreement will prove of the permanent character it then seemed likely to prove.
The dogged determination of China to recover a territory the value of which to the outsider seemed so dispropor- tionate to the efforts made to repossess it,
THE OPENING OF THE WEST RIVER.
I
The opening of the West River is now officially assured. The event is one of great importance to Hongkong and will in course of time add considerably to the trade of the colony. Perhaps the traffic may not at once assume very large proportions, but it will steadily grow, for large consuming and pro- ducing districts will be tapped, and the native mercantile classes will soon begin to appreciate the new facilities. According to Reuter's message the opening is not to take place immediately, but is to stand over
t
The general impression locally seems to be that the opening of the river as far as Wuchow
sum constitutes the
and substance of the concession. If that should prove to be correct it will not be long before an agitation for the opening of Nanning, Posé, and other places is set on foot, unless in the meantime the transit pass question should be satisfactorily settled. Mr. ANDREW's case at Wuchow has brought that question to an issue, and Mr. ANDREW is to be congratu lated on the persistency with which he has stuck to his point. The Chamber of Com- merce has supported him by making re- presentations to the Marquis of SALISBURY, and there can be little doubt the decision will be given in his favour and that he will be duly indemnified for his losses. That will
! establish a precedent on which other mer- chants can act and it may also lead to the issue of general instructions protecting transit pass goods throughout Kwangtung and Kwangsi. Judging from the present disposition of the Kwangtung Government, however, it is to be feared there will always be trouble with respect to transit passes within its jurisdic tion, whatever instructions may be issued, and hence the importance of trying to secure as many points as possible where' direct foreign trade may be carried on, indepen- dently of whether they are accessible to steamers or not. Owing to the squeezes on- the river foreign goods for Wuchow, instead of going direct, go via Pakhoi, thence over- land to Hunghué, a place on the West River between Nanning and Wuchow, and then down stream, no duties being collected on foreign goods coming down the river. Nanning and Posé draw their supplies via Pakhqi and thence overland to "Nanning, while everything from Hongkong to Yunnan is now sent via Haiphong and the Red River. In addition to Wuchow it would be well to have opened to foreign trade Kweilin, Nanning, Pose, and Kweichowfu.
|
Kweilin would open up an important trade with Hunan, Kweichow, and South Szechuen. In the letter addressed by the Hongkong Chamber of Commerce to the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs in 1893 on the subject of the West River the following passage occurs:-"Wuchow, being at the