Page
THE CHINA MAIL, MONDAY, MARCH 9, 1953.
SPECULATION OVER THE THE
BUDGET Free
Annual Springtime Event In Full Swing In Britain
Malayan Trade Balance
Affected By Tin, Rubber Prices
Malaya,
Singapore.
whose rubber
and tin are among the Sterling Aren's most im- portant dollar-earners, Þnd
unfavourable
trade
un
Conflict Between Political And Economic Approach
(FROM OUR OWN CORRESPONDENT)
London, Mar. 8.
The open season for unofficial Budget-making is now in full swing. No special skill is required by those who care to participate in this popular Springtime event. The layman, indeed, has a certain advantage over the expert.
For his views on taxation and Government expenditure mark the limits within which budgetary action is politically feasible while the economist's views are at best a guide to what is theoretically desirable. The outcome of this conflict between the political and the economic approach to the Budget problem is generally a compromise which goes some way to meet both points of view.
This year, however, the Chancellor will find it a
balance of £6,000.000 losl year, compared with favourable balance
£148,000,000 in 1951.
This
delerioration
营业
the
Colony's trading position with the untside world largely ac counted for by the sharp decline in rubber and in prices.
The average price of rubber last year wax 25, 4d, a lb com- pared with 4s. 2d, a . in 1951.
The price of tin declined from an average of £1,080, in 1951, to
£005 a ton Inst year.
Exports of rubber mounted to 910,408 tons, valued at £203,000,- 000. Experts to the United States zuneh esther American Decount countries earned £58,000,000 in stollars.
For the first time, rubber ship- ments to Britain exceeded those to the United States,
LOWEST SINCE 1946
The fall in the price of rubber, together with analler shipments to the United States, meant that Malayan dollar earnings from this source declined by £84,000,- 000 last year as compared with 1051.
The total value of all rubber shipments was £258,000,000 less
Just
year,
year than in the previous
Another result of the lower rice was that Malayan rubber
production fell last year to
lowest level since 1946.
even mure dieuk han usual 10 steer a nikilo course. For the laymen have seldom been more insistent in their demands for reductions while the eronomials
ure revimenting tine of action that no Chancel lor would care to uke.
FOT
the
*
movement in the terms of holders oul of the Bascts of trade?
Baltic nationals sequestered this country.
The view has been expressed that white Beltału cannot DX- pect repetition of the 10 per cent Improvement in her terms of trade that occurred last year, an Improvement of only half Gus size would enable her to achieve her objective.
im-
In
Rumanian bonds fall into the second category, As Rumanıla is an ex-enemy country, repay- ment hopes are based on the | existence of large funds in the
hands of the Custodian Enemy Property.
of
Taiwan Salt For Japan?
Taipei, Mar,. 8. Taiwan is negotiating to cell Japan 70,000 tons of Formosan kalt for shipment within a month after signing of a contract, the Nationsllat newspaper "Combined Daily News said today.
Japan had signed a con- tract for 100,000 tons of Formosan salt towards the latter part of last year, and It
Wo
Indicated al deliveries would be effected before the end of March, newspaper added...
the
Reuter.
HONGKONG
SHARE
MARKET
20 43 1350
(From Our Correspondant}
Business done on the Stock Exchange this morning amount- ed to $207,850. Noon quotations Nevertheles t is the profes - Any improvement in the In the third category of "Iron and the
trans morning's Nork! viewpoint which in the terms of trade brought about by Curtain" bonds are those issued actions:- end is ilkely to
to prevail.
an increase in
ase in Britten export by countries which were WHT- economists have taken into full
prices must almost certainly be line allies but later "went Com-
(****) SHARED BUYERÐ BELLERS SALES account something which the rejected, however, as a ilkeli-munist." In the case of Polish BANKS laymen have either overlooked
hood for the cornin
corning year.
bonde a repayment, agreement is KC Bank XD 1350 10 138 or ignored the fact that Britain With competition mounting in already in existence but resump-INSURANCES has pledged herself to find
many of Britain's most
tion of debt. service hus been Union substantial
Parl of
of the
portant export
bort markets the need delayed through disagreement DOCKS, ETC. Underwriters money now needed to Binance Common- is for reduction rather than an over shipments of strategic K. Wharf wealth development plans.
increase in British prices.
materials.
N. Pt. Wharf Indeed, it is no exaggeration
Dock On the other hand, while it
13 500 12.00 to say that
Provident 13.00 Brilish
is budgetary
improbable not
that the
Wheelock ...
7.40 7.43 polley for 1953/54 began
will see coming year
further
1200 7.40 fulls in the prices
Hongkew..... 1.00 4020 of food and
LAND, ETC. materials, to look for any raw major relief from this source is to assume that the volume of British imports can remain in- definitely restricted to tho present level.
take shape last November, when the Commonwealth Prime Ministers met in London to lay their plans for Sterling Area re- covery.
Britala's part in this struggle for solvency is to earn a sur- plus on her current external acetun! of the order of £300 million to £350 million # year. This is needed, as the Chan- cellor told the House of Com- mons during the recent debate on the Commonwealth Economic Conference, to enable Britain not only to meet her capital
up her TESIVES,
But, in fact, it cannot, for in- dustrial stocks of imported aw materials are beginning to low and will soon need to rebuilt.
run be
Those "painless olutions" are therefore rejected by most economista.
POSSIBLE COURSE Sterling Area, but also to building alternative remedies commitments in the overseas But when
comes to suggest
they are faced with a familiar but THE PROBLEM
nonetheless di
difficult problemi. With defence expenditure for Fo Amurica
for For, if there is to be a readjust- 1953/54 set at about the
ment of claims on British ne- isot
Bources to create the
Dollar carnings from 1in, however, were higher last year 1051 When
30
*tempted 10 force down the price of lin by stopping all in- ports froin Malaya.
Exports of in brought £18,000,000 in dollars, compared with only £3,000,000 in 1051,
Earnings from all in exports were £60,000,000, or £7,000,000 less than in the previouis your.
RUBBER PROPOSAL
Singapore, Mar. 8. Malayan rubber dealers have accepted an American proposal to hold a meeting in New York -to-discuss-problems--resulting from the substantial deliveries of rubber not conforming to type, description and packing spec!ll- cations.
the
The
Trade
therefore
savings needed to finance over- scas development, then the axe must fall either on homo investment or home
level as for the current financial year and with roughly the same provision for the social services, the problem for the 1953 Budget
efore becomes that of find ing the resources needed provide for a balance of pay- ments surplus of between £300 million and £350 million.
According to
the economists there are two ways in which this might be done without placing an even greater burden hor
CZARIST BONDS Interest In
In these bonds. was founded on the possibility of political changes behind the Iron | Curtain following Stalin's death.
Even Russion
Czarist bonds attracted attention though the price of these rose only, a few shillings. But gains of be-
issuca
£2 and £4 were ተ- Polish and Estonian
The gilt-odgod
murkets had
over £100
700 10
3.30
71
0.40. 10.10
Trade Policy?
Washington, Mar. 8
For the first time in the history of the United States there is serious speculation about the eventual feasibili ty of a free trade policy although the authorilles sec no possibility of the Re- publican - controlled Con- gress over adopting such a programme.
The widely pub1ielset views of Mr Henry Ford 21, European agitation for "trade, not nid" and Hic certainty Usul Japan's economic stability will require expanding international markets nee among the factors that widened the horizons of the trade polley discussion,
The discussion may at feast defer any early trend toward higher average tariff rates.
The continued large surplus of United States exports over in- ports, the inability of dollar- short countries to purchase American farm products in the desired volume and the fact that domestle manufacturers under peacetime conditions would soon exceed "home market" absorp tion, also compelled thinking on future commercial policy.
ROOSEVELT MOVE
The Underwood Tariff Law, adopted early by the Woodrow Wilson Administration, was de- signed to keep the tariff level as low 7B3
as practicable. Since the Underwood Low the revenue-earning feature of the Customs Tariff Law has been of secondary Importance and poll- tieni interest turned to questions of the effects of tariff in ex- panding or contracting inter- national competition in the United States Market, "Pro- tection" was widened to a large number of agricultural as well os industrial items.
1.03
UK Hotel XD 7.13 7.20 2000 * TH 500-44 120 HK Land (N)
S'hai Land
umphrey
Train XD
ZI
1.25
12 XD
P. Tram (0) 30
Star Ferry
20.20 201 000 @ 20.30
100 Xb
C. Light (0) 930 935
C. Light (NI Electric XD Telephone XD INDUSTRIALS Cemer..... Rope
........
16 161⁄2 300
16.40 XD
17
..... 10.10 19.49
a very good week. Repayment of million of National War Bonds STORES, ETC. brought buyers in on Monday. Dairy Later sentiment was helped by COTTONS Ewo... the BULCESS the £100 million MISCELLANEOUS
of Exchequer issue and by news
Yangtze of the latest rise in the goldi reserves,
on this matter are shared by strong influence on priving a
A
212
.... 5.83 6.08
€ 8.43
22.10
rafcii,
After Roosevelt's inaugura- tion in 1933, the Secretary of State, Mr Cordell Hull, look the leadership in obtaining 10.30 Congressional approval
of the Reciprocal Trade Act designed in principle to fix tarif in most cases lower through International bargaining. This resulted number of bilateral and multilateral pacts. Olivials here believe that the business world
generally und
many foreign governments falled to realise how far the reciprocity programme resulted in a reduc tion of the tariff barrier to United States imports.
New Fighter
Chief
Old Consols gained £1-1/10. This and War Loan touched its highest price this year.
RISING MARKET Industrials have been a firm and a rising market.
London, Mar. 8. Texule and electric shares Air Vice-Marshal Sir Dermot In a discussion about a hypo- consump were supported and there A. Boyle is to be appointed thetical "free trade" policy for
well totion.
was again activity in the stores Chief of the Royal Air Force the United States, Impartial Professor F. W. Palsh, of section where
vnere "take-over" Fighter Command London University, whose views passibilities are still
frain April experts point to the great prac 7. It was announced today. tical difficulties. They said that He will succeed Air Marshal Individual Inductries and agricul- many economists, suggests Latest news from this front Sir Basil Embry, who has been sural groups here do not conside possible line of action which is that the directors of Binn's,
reported as likely to succeed the tariff system from its broad
General would affect only that part of the North of England depart- American
Lauris overall economie effects but from Norstad as home investment and consump-nient store concern, have recom- on the British taxpayer than betion that is at present financed
NATO Commander the impact which rates have on is already shouldering.
mended their shareholders to
of Allied Air Forces. Central particular industries. The whole outlook of businessmen on trade Europe. The first is by an increase-in-overnment funds.
turn down
down the offer made by national output; the second
This
appeal to those
General Norstäd in the House of Fraser for the
has been polity is "fragmentised"-accord- is Britain
ing to the ecmpetitive situation company's shares. As an added tipped as the next Air Deputy of various industries a favourable movemen in clamouring for drastic cut Inducement they declared an the terms of trade.
Government expenditure extra though perhaps their enthusiasm House of Fraser retaliated
The Air Ministry said today dlyldend Jorge
The
that a further announcement by will face when they realise the announcing they would approach future about
would be made in the near full implications of ProfessOC
Sir Basil's next Binn's shareholders Brectly. Paish's "plan"
Meanwhile the take-over con- Extra
productlor generates
This, he writes in the District troversy has moved to West- extra incomes and though some
Bank Review, "will involve such part of this would undoubtedly
measures as reduced expen-
President find its way into
of the Board of Trade, company
diture on new houses, Increases
fold the Commons he would not savings an even greater Dart
those Laxes
Introduce legislation to prevent (presumably would go into the peekets of
which dealings in shares "which have taxes) who mainly indirect cammers and others wake
inflated In become ́excessively are paid at the expense of con- would probably proceed
sumption reductions, in sub-value as a result of take-over speed it
rumours." sidies and, if possible, cuta in
This was a matter best left to expenditure Government
the Stock Exchange authorities, he said.
by
But both are rejected by the experts as practical means of solving the problem...at least bý themselves. Trale
u
in
who Have
7
been
DA the goods and services; while, transfer of the resourses so re- leased will involve a rise in at last short-term unemployment and at least a temporary loss of
output,"
In SHAPE.
| appointment.-Reuter,
Assuming for the purposes of discussion that a free tradu policy might eventually become politically feasible, the abolition of tariff rates would in many industries be followed by de- mands for quantitative limits on
minster where Mr Thorneycroft Exchange Rates imports.
The trade policy issue seems Business was done in the local still to devolve around compell- unofficial exchange market
this tive groups of producers at home morning at the following rates:- V.A. dollar (per St)
5.0024 and abroad and the great con- Sterling note (per £1)
15.83 suming public which would Indonesian guilders (per 100) 21.30 benefit
by chraper Imported Slanticais (per 100)
35.30 commodities
and foodstuffs.-- Singapore (Biraits)
United Prusa. FIC plastres per 100)
BANK SHARES There has been some Inquiry for Eastern Bank shares follow- ing dividend increases an- nounced by the Chartered Bank India, and the Mercantile Bank of PENINSULAR
The invitation, which came from
the Crude Rubber Com
the Rubber mitte of Association and the Rubber Manufacturers' Association, both of New York, at considerable misunderstanding had arisen and the "great distance separating this market from the source of rubber makes it dificult to Ect at facts, to appreciate others problems and Prove vizying opinions
such incts
NO CERTAINTY Το be effective, therefore, Chinese Rubber additional production would however, have to be greater than the ad- decided to invite delegates from ditional
consumption which the
two American Associations to would result from it. come to Singapore for discussion Even this, however, would not "because Singapore is the centre necessarily
be followed by
MANY CRITICS marked improvement in of the trade".
the There is little dikelihood, how balance the
payments. For any
substantial increase ever, of Mr Butler adopting this entirety though
Another Eastora Bonk re Thailand and Ceylon in output would be reflected in courre in its
to
the Landon affect could be conveniently invited to the demand for imported raw some parts of il-particularly its port
to subsidies will market was that made by, the reference Moreover,
beneft the probably figure in his Budget Chairman of the Hongkong and
proposals.
Shanghai Banking Corporation. balance of payments there
But the Chancellor's
Sir Arthur Morse's adverse Budget would have to be an increase in
comments σ: Japan's Anances the production of goods which task will not be done until he
the Finance B, caused Kome weaitness to could be diverted to the export has steered
Incorporating
his
proposals, develop in the market for
Japa
rse bonds. safely through Parliament.
And this may confront him with his stiffest test.
For there are mar in the ranks of the Government's own party, as well as among their by no means corvinced that any friends in
in the country, who are
budgetary measures should be
་
A spokesman said if American delegate could come,
Indonesia.
representatives to attend the meeting, so that American complaints, especially about bad packing, may be threshed out with all Asfan exporting coun- trics simultaneously. United Press.
Tax Pact To Be Signed
of
materials.
to
trade.
But there can be no certainty in the present condition of
world markets that an increase In production, even if it could be confined to "export goods," would be reflected in a proper- tionale rise in the value of total British exports.
THE ALTERNATIVES
cer-
Gold shares have been an Irregular market; rubbers and toas made fresh gains; and oils furned a little easier,
Japs To additional savings created by
THE STOCK EXCHANGE Most Interesting development
For the problem of selling the applied to overseas investment. Tokyo, Mar. 8.
extra goods abroad in the face white Britain's industries are Sources close to the Japanese of stiff competition would re being starved of capital. Government tonight sald the main to be solved.
Nor signing of
ean there be any Japan-United < States fax agreement is expect-tainty that increased production
would lead automatically to ed this month.
Reports said the draft of the reduction in dho demand for agreement has already been imporis, worked out between Japan and America,
"med reports sold the
agreement is primarily to prevent a dual levying
of taxes by both the Japanese and American govern- ments.
Included in the agreement are
This could only be assured the wage camers were prepared to spend their extra. Incomo op
goods...or home-produced without which is extremely unlikely.
The alternatives would be to
allow
Open
12.09
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