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THE CHINA MAIL, APRIL 21, 1941:
JAPAN STILL IN FEAR OF THE SOVIET
(This is the fifth of several uncensored articles appearing in the "Manila Bulletin” on the Pacific “war of nerves" as seen from within Japan by an American observer).
ENEMIES
AS
JAPAN IS MAKING NEW RAPIDLY AS POSSIBLE, BUT HER ONE TRADI- - CONTINUES TO HOLD TIONAL FOE — RUSSIA THE HONDURED POSITION IN DEFENCE PLANS.
-
The opinion long has prevailed in the islands that some time, somewhere, a second Russo-Japan- ese war is inevitable. The two countries were on the verge of it in 1939, but Moscow had more important projects on hand. Tokyo, aware of the probable con- sequences, managed to calm her hot-tempered Kwantung army officers who were all set for a de- cision fight.
Another
closed in 1931: the right to run sealed trains to Dairen; recogni- tion of Soviet sovereignty over Outer Mongolia and Sinkiang and Ninghsia provinces.
Stalling
1
The Japanese, obvious, can grant only the last of these de- mands, if they expect to avoid domestle trouble. If the list is a Russian correct synopsis of the wishes, it is clear Stalin is sim- ply stalling.
He is holding the Japanese ati arm's length also by refusing to sign a permanent fisheries treaty and by delaying any tangible de-
in the velopment
commercial negotiations which have been un- der way in Moscow for several months.
violent
It must suit his sense of hum- par to note the Japanese patience. with
methods such dilatory which, a year ago, would have! anti-Russian provoked
at least. Tokyo development is far! press outbursts, Now, the enigmatic attitude of ļ
Assuming spokesmen, who now claim negő-, more likely, however,
two coun- tiations between the the Soviets is one of the two most
that Moscow's policy is to
proceeding amicably," effective hake, on Japatiese ex-
Russia's foreign; thecourage worldwide warfare, wait tries are IS The pati port
armies to Knock each used to describe United States Navy As has been i for rival mentioned behre,
Japanese ex-jother out, then pick up the meets, Policy as the "actions of a hysteri± pansionists responsive only the Soviets would have an excel-cal girl,"
lent opportunity in the Far East.
American Japanese
to force.
wheel
the
Japanese
war,
fuel. is, say,
-
Russia's tactical position, of course, is the major reason why Sta in now has the upper hand. of But the Soviets won part their influence by defeating the Japanese at Nomonhan in 1939. More Than Skirmish- That border skirmish has as- in amazing importance sumed
Russia has plenty of real and An
behind her doubtless, would mean the end of theoretical [bree
time. empire in marked activities in the Far Eust, the
she holds Even if the Nipponese army re- Temporarily at least, the whip hand, and she is play-mained as a bulwark in Manchu- kuo, its mechanised forces would g her advantage to the limit.
short of desperately roulette be Before the diplomatic
Japan's reserve gasoline put
chips Stahn's pocket. Russia cam to sufficient for one year. An attack Japan, asking for a non-aggression on the Indies might exhaust hair
Three overlapping battles pact. That was in 1936. before or more of this amount, because Subsequent diplomatic develop-
are not adding ments. Tokyo signed the anti-comintern[at present they
were fought, the Japanese win- and their reserve Dutch destruc- Germany with agreement
Then Italy Russia's
totion of Indian wells, prior to any ning the first two against untrain-
mard Soviet "shock troops,"
command poured: thwart thus pact and protect her- successful landing, would self, but the Japanese army turn-another year's wait before Japan the Red army ed down the proposition because could acquire they short-rightedly believed they amount would be on to more or less United peranently At that time, the shipments
ygen afficer of the Kwan
eyed the Mini- tung army Mill
Vlady sodok and Teataracte
16-1
Mongolia
idea was
areas for angre on, and my thr
alle of self-defence.
Of Doubtful Worth
ed.
To-day, the odds have chang
non. the wants Japan
her expan.. aggression pact --
And it badly. Einlets want Stalin merely smiles and re Foreign Min members; treats ister Yosuke Matsuoka to a freel train ride and an interview
t;}
ny considerable | good German mechanised equip- the ment and sune of their best men of fuel, because
into the struggle, annihilating a States
einbargo wouki
and immediately upon a Japanese artillery division
sending sent ears some 40 miles within Manchukuo before peace was declared
Japanese march.
Navy Caution
This would be a logical moment to Rueria to step m, attempt to Incapture Manchukuo mach are
ju
display of
Shortly after that strength, Mosrow signed the new pact with few weeks, famed non-aggression asi Germy. Within a
the Soviet attack against Finland began.
Japan retired some of her lead- a long-range beg. diately ing lives in disgrace and imme- mechanisation programme for an army that showed itself hopeless- ly felised with the tanks and armoured cars previously at its a boundary disposal Later, in the
demarcal
treaty details which have never been published: much of the the Soviets kept fand they had won.
of the Japanese en- possible. including sub- Jandial segments in north China. These are the arguments the navy has been impressing upon the army in order to delay the The Southward programmo. country could not be secure, as long as the Russian menace re-
and mained unshackled, fleet, as defender of the home. and, merely a neutrality pact.
land, is aware of it. the worth of which is doubtful.} Without Seame assurance
Actually, the Japanese navy has inactivity. it
That a Japanese Russion
fear to-day: one great An
will submarine
sneak march would be dangerous,
Russian
and torpedo an close to Japan attack upon the Dutch East In- dies, for example, would neces-
American vessel carrying evacuees Officers capital a large
array of
States. to the United bulk of warships flanking the
believe, and probably correctly, available transports, because loss
American- an immediate of man power is extremely high that such an incident would pro-
against a well- any assault
Japanese conflict, with no one in island or coastline. defended
willing to be- Naturally.
the Japanese would the United States leave as many warships in homelieve that a Japanese submarine waters as could be spared with-had not committed the act. As one officer said. "We can't stand the southern out foredooming
another Panay." expedition,
sitate
in
for
Vulnerable Flank
the
voke
Soviet Der Tag
Russian bombing of a railroad station,
of
small Fulaerchi, near the Nonni river nearly precipitat- ed fighting on a much wider scale in the middle of the Nomonhan incident. Kwantung officers were both frightened and angry by the of them be-- mally attack, and they considered an essential Japa- lieved the time had come for what Russian out- nese drive against posts, notably Vladivostok, which The Jitters
is within easy bombing range of hot- Japan, Tokyo quieted the This particular brand of jitters heads after three tense days. to strike But if Russia chose
by the fact that
Some day, the Japanese believe, submarines have hard at that moment. In revenge was prompted
been Stalin will attempt to avenge the past wrongs,
Japanese Soviet
series of Russian defeats which flank would be comparatively increasingly active lately around One of them chal-
have characterised Japan's north- Simultaneously, 80 At least
Soviet Vladivostok. vulnerable,
and stopped a Japanese ward expansion.
is fretting based in lenged submarines
the Kwantung are now Vladivostok. Hundreds of aero- freighter in the Japan sea a few
ago. Japanese officials, to repay the Soviets for Nomon- planes reportedly are available in weeks
for friendship withhan, a dark chapter in their mili- that area for duty and a con- hankering
protest for this
tary careers. they consider
Meanwhile, Japanese expansion- certed aerial attack would wipe Russia, made no
some out Japan's great industrial cities, incident, although
ists hope and pray that Yokohama and the sea as "our lake." Osaka, Kobe,
Many Japanese and foreign
way may be found to postpone, Tokyo, which consist mainly of
the day of reckoning, until Japan observers, believing that Stalin
machine American- flimsy wooden houses.
can build up her war drills
actually wants an Japanese war, are puzz'ed by with the raw materials they ex- his disinclination to accept the pect to find in the path of the obvious course: A quick and bland
who
are held Anti-air raid twice annually throughout Japan
that i in useless preparation for eventuality. The people participate are hopelessly inept. But even well-trained fire-fighters would have no chance against the holocaust that incendiary bombs The ab- would start in Japan. sence of air raid shelters would mean a frightful loss of life,
“Number One Enemy" The fact that Japanese believe the Soviets capable of such a re- venge war is indicative of their deep distrust of this "number one enemy."
Theoretically, súch a devalop ment le possible, as the attor math of warfare which the 80- vieta could easily taunt the Kwantung army into starting somewhere in Manchukuo.
that Japan assurance could proceed southward with- out Russian interference, in the hope that it would result soon In warfare.
army
southward programme."
REVENUE FORGERIES?
Stalin may come to that later.
him to keep At the request of Revenue Off- At present it suits
cer Ahern, two men and a wo- the Japanese dangling, Wide- sprend reports In Tokyo said he man were remanded for a week has made exorbitant demands as by Mr. D. J. N. Anderson, at Kow- of a non-aggression foon on Saturday, when they were the price pact. These include, according to charged with possession of tyes rumours in diplo- and a block intended for the pro- resembling unconfirmed
circles: Return of all duction of a mark matic Manchuituo north of Harbin and that used by the Superintendent and Exports in the old Chinese Eastern Rollway of Imports (probably for some "face-saving connection with Government pre- 22, consideration"); return of Kara-pared opium,
Accused were Lam Yuk, (southern Saghallen); re- opening of the Harbin-Vladivos- Kwan Wah, 18, both unemployed, tok railroad, which the Japanese and Lam Yun, 57, widow.
futo