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THE CHINA MAIL, FEBRUARY 18, 1941.
Page: 7
CHINA MAIL The Atlantic Theatre
WINDSOR HOUSE
RUSSIA-NEUTRAL BROKER?
to
IN the Atlantic theatre of war the Germans for the moment retain the initiative and are on the offensive; the British are still |compelled to a defensive attitude
for the most part.
attempt would be an indication of Certainly, whatever new do- if the northern and western Elre Morcover, a degree of desperation in Ger-|vices, Britain is, at the moment, bases were available, man, inner councils rather beyond | sadly short of both surface escort were: Berchaven and Queenstown such surface indications as are vessels and of long-range sea- in British hands, it might be pos- now available.
planes and flying-boats; and she sible to give some protection to As present, at any rate, thewill need also additional merchant convoys coming through the wes- Remembering the principle that Germans are concentrating on tonnago to make up for the lossos, tern approaches, thus dividing the there are only two ways to at- Blockade—or, we may say, coun- I should, however, venture the enemy's forces and increasing the tack either a fortress or a counter-blockade of
chances the island of guess that the Admiralty would mathematical
of
any try-assault or blockade—it is
value above every other gain particular convoy coming safely now clear that the Germans have,
which they might be offered the to port. for the time, being at least, given
right to use the bases of Eire in As for the German bombing at- up the idea of assault and are
carrying out counter-nieasures. tacks now being directed against concentrating on blockade to re-
The reason for this statement | British ports and industrial cer- duce British resistance. Assault
will be clear from glance at a tres, it is to be noted that these involves actual penetration of the
map. While the Germans hold the are all part of a blockade pro- island: of Great Britain, and the
French coastline, the Channel is gramme-that is, an attack direct- seizing and the holding of so many of its vital centres and interior
FIELDING ELLIOTT
surrender.
sea
The spectacle of con- tinuing. Russian-Nazi co- operation tends to produce concern wherever totali- tarianism is feared or op- posed. It tends also screen the political fric-communications as to compel its tion which exists between Great Britain being an island and the British Navy being in those two States and command of the sea to an extent which the Germans cannot hope which is exacerbated by to overcome, it would always be necessary for the Germans to Nazi pressure on Slav counterbalance this British peoples in the Balkans.and by sufficient air superi- ority of their own to permif the passage of German troops across Negotiations over trade, the narrow waters of the Channel such as those held recent and their disembarkation on Bri-
tish shores. The German experi- | ly, can be entered into at ences In the Skagerrak with operations of this sort apparently any time
without raising gave them an exaggerated opinion of air power's potentialities In political issues, yet they such operations; they did not suf- serve as an opportunity, distances from baser
ficently allow for the respective which was for each party to sound in their favour in the Skagerrak, but is in Britain's favour now. out the political attitudes Distance is indeed the most im- portant single factor in assessing the ability of air power to per- form a given task.
of the other.
Great Britain. For this they have obtained admirable positions, far better than those they had in the last war, while Britain's position is far worse, since she lacks any point of support on the French coast or in Eire. The Germans have access to the open Atlantic
By MAJOR
both north of the British Isles (in Norway) and the south of them (in France).
They hold, indeed, the whole coast of Europe from North Cape to the Spanish frontier. Their access to the Atlantic from Nor-
ed against communications.
mu-
The necessary concentration of British shipping activities at west coast ports permits the enemy not much use for ocean convoys; likewise to concentrate his efforts. and the Channel ports will be Even when these are directed at under constent air áttack. It will industriel areas such as Birming- also, be difficult to use the western ham and Coventry, they are still approaches, so that for all practi- part of the blockade scheme-the cal purposes the supplies of Britain ultimate purpose of which is to must be carried on by ships com- prevent overseas supplies being way is somewhat impeded by the ing by way of the northern ap-translated into British war British occupation of Iceland and proaches, reaching from the north terial. the Faroes, but long nights and of Ireland, the ports of the Clyde, It is, however, to be bad weather undoubtedly enable the Mersey, and the Bristol Chau that for the most raiders and blockade runners to nel; and other purts on the West slip through. If this were all, how-Coast, ever, the danger would not be so A convoy may occasionally slip great. The real danger lies to the through around the north of Scot- south, where French bases on the land, but this is dangerous also, Channel and the Bay of Biscay while German guns and mines at are now nests for German sub-the Strait of Dover cut off access marines, closely supported by air- to the East Coast from that direc-ed. craft.
It is in this combination of sub-
marine and aeroplane, in which the plane finds for the submarine prey and helps in attacking it, that the real danger lies. While shipping losses have not yet risen that in default of a future gain-of 1917, they are sufficiently dis- It must, therefore, be assumed to the levels of the black months
quieting, and it is clear that no satisfactory answer to this com- hination has yet been evolved.
Had there been nothing of a commercial nature tons of air superiority by the Ger- mans-which does not appear discuss, the
German talks still fikely--any might have
taken place.
But there evidently was something of a commer- cial nature that required examination.
sesses.
needs
to
invasion
tion.
Save for coastal trade,, the East Coast may be counted out for the time being. These conditions make the waters on the west of Scotland and the north of Ireland a happy hunting ground for Germon sub- since this is the great focal area marines and their aerial assistants, of traffic. The task of British ships and planes in dealing with them would
be immensely simplified
Cards On The Table
ranean.
By J. A. Spender
further
A
their
|
noted part German bombing, attacks are taking place at night. In their day attacks their losses have proved to be. pro- Bibitive. Night attacks are much more difficult to stop by defensive means now available, though others may be presently perfect-
No form of attack. has yet been devised by man against which a Moveover, night attacks necessari- defence was not found in time. ly reduce the accuracy of bomb- ing, which reduces the chance of damage to individually important
targets.
Meanwhile, Britain is effective- her ly maintaining the grip of German-conquered territory, own seablockade on Germany and
Ιπ
This is by reason of the fact that the vast industrial capacity of the United States, added to that of the Dominions, will begin to weight the scales in favour of Britain.
Germany neither has, nor can distant armouries
a military sense it is the relaxa- tion of this blockade by capture or destruction of its bases in the is- land of Great Britain which is the principal German objective at the moment. That island also serves In a recent article 1 expressed of Scotland; now it has the French speeding-up with a corresponding offensive by air against German as a base for the British counter- some scepticism about the idea ports at its disposal, and can pro- effort on our side.
Bis dat qui industries and broached by certain military ex-ceed straight from these into the cito dat is the motto for the hour.
military centres, perts that Hitler would seek
Western seas. Then, as in
the i Two
which is having its effect upon the things may be decided help Mussolini in his adversity, early months of this war, we had soon.
German war effort. First, whether the war is Germany now
either by a drive through Bulgaria the French Fleet to help us into be greatly prolonged and an
This counter-offensive has from to the Turkish frontier or through tracking down the enemy; now wejeven wider spread given to more than it expected
its the beginning been largely con- Yugoslavia to Salonika Goebbels have to do the whole business destructiveness; and, second, whe-fined to night bombing, and has need when the last com-
had just rather pointedly an- nounced that the thorough Ger-
ther we can spare enough from been handicapped by the greater our own necessities to give the average distance to German cen- mercial agreement was man always made the most care-
Greeks the aid we greatly desire tres from British bases than from ful preparations before delivering single-handed, with the reached with the Soviets. one of his smashing blows; and handicap that the use of the Irish time, may procure a decision in British centres.
to give them and which, given in presently held German bases to However, if the Harvests in the Danubian his chief would so far depart from
It seemed highly improbable that naval bases is denied to us.
the war with Italy. There is
British have no effective counter- It is, perhaps, surprising that general consensus on both these agent to the night bomber, neither this principle as to commit him- we have not suffered more under matters in the United States.
have the Germans; and the area, Europe's principal of an unprovised expedition these disabilities than we actually
superior technique of the R.A.F. granary, have been reduc- through
The Door Open difficult country. with have in the last five months.
counts for much. in well remember the anxious anti- For the last three months the It may be suggested that the ed by untoward weather possibly hostile populations,
The depths of winter. I suggest cipations in March, 1918, when we leaders of both the American par- first belligerent to discover such and by diversion of man ed instead that he would seek to had to face the possibilities that ties have been telling their, sup- a counter-agent will possess an in a different the Channel ports would fall into porters that the British command enormous advantage in point of and mule power from the help his partner
way by intensifying his bomb-German hands. They were far of the Atlantic is almost as vital. time. Time is indeed a factor of soil to wartime activities.ing of British cities so as to pre- gloomier than the worst we have if not quite as vital, an Ameri- the greatest importance in this What can interest as British, and both war. In the long run, if Britain The British blockade has vent us from sending aircraft to suffered in these months.
the help of Greece, and by in ever befalls, we can keep a good these parties have made the in-can-as now seenis prchable-hold exerted cumulative pres-creasing his attacks on British heart over this business, and. crease and speeding-up of aid to cut through the winter, the spring sure on German economy, shipping, so as to prevent us from with the assurance given in Par- Britain a principal plank in their will bring with, it the beginning sending warships to the Meditor-liament recently that it is platforms. Nowhere than in the of a gradual change in Britain's depriving it of key mater-!
under the Prime Minister's spe- United States has there been a favour as far as air power is con-
cerned. ials with which to make Moreover, apart from the plight cial supervision, resist all tempta- warmer or more generous sym-
tion to go hunting for scapegoats.pathy with the Greeks in. general speeding-up use even of many mater-of Italy, a
may well be a Gennan necessity. In these circumstances it seems heroic battle. We are not, there- ials which Germany pos- If the oil situation is not imme-to me that we owe it to our friends fore, forcing an entry into Ameri
diately urgent, there is at least everywhere, but especially in the can politics but walking through sufficient doubt whether German United States, to explain to them an open door, if we seek at this and give precision and still more, Italian supplies of exactly the position in which we moment to One way
in which Rus-petrol and lubricating oils would are placed. When Lord Lothian practical direction to these agreed
returning to America conclusions. sia might enlarge its trade suffice to carry through the long on
direct attack. If the products of up. the question of In the last three months are prepared to opened with Germany is suggest-night. Again, to have something credits for Britain; there were British and American peoples have those distant plants can but be ed in reports of negotiato show the German people, who some. in this country who shook come as near as possible to real-assured of reaching the embattled
have to stomach the disagreeable
their heads and blamed him, for aising President Wilson's ideal of British island; they should begin, tions between the Soviet fact that, instead of ending supposed indiscretion: in this de-open diplomacy." A great and as spring arrives, to increase Bri- Union and the Argentine triumph last: September, as they
licate matter. That was not at all stimulating debate has gone for tish security against air attack, were led to expect, the war still the view taken in America. There ward on the platform and in the while increasing the power of her
counter-offensive Government. The Argent has no end in sight, may, als be he was thanked for his frankness Press of both countries, and Pre-
against Ger- tine Minister of Agricul-for him highly desirable.
[in laying the cards on the table.”sident Roosevelt has come to rank
For the moment then, this chief ture is quoted as saying The New Phase
Eine For Frankness
of Britain is to keep her with our own Prime Minister as task
and one of the great educators
great island base geture and keep But they were not quite all the leaders of world opinion. But we its communications with North Argentina is ready to sell. The evidence now leaves little
doubt that this is the new phase cards; or, at least not those which have both had to realise that there America and the rest of the outer to anybody who wants to of the war decreed from Berlin. we should most wish to catch is a gap between the acceptance world open
The chiep task of Germany buy. Thus "neutral" Rus-It has been compared with the American eyes at this moment. We of general principles by lenders.
dangerous emergency of April, are not seriously troubled about and the realisation by the mass must be to reduce that base or sia may attempt to play 1917, but there are differences is the questions of money and cre- of the people of the action which isolate it before its offensive pos-
broker between the "new ported in recent weeks are by no of next year,
The sinkings, re-and the United States in the course Frank speaking on that subject is back up the effect of the British
We feel; in our a necessary part of the democratic sea blockade; order and the New means up to the level of 1917, bones that the American people, method.
and the problem they present is with their generous sympathies for British and American relations Weighing all factors, favourable World.
and unfavourable, a considered not the same as that which con-our cause and the conviction they are on a footing on which we judgment, based on the best mili- fronted us in that year. Then have so often expressed that it is hardly think of them as diplom-tary information available in This possibility is alwe were groping about for the also their cause and bound up with acy. The Americans are not England, must conclude that while ready being dealt with, means of countering the submar- their security will and a way watching and weighing and try- the Chies danger as to the British ine, and in a serious uncertainty through Johnson Acts: and Neu-ing distractedly to make up their sea communications, chances seem apparently, by British ef- whether we should find it in time, trality Acts, or any other formal minds whether we or the Ger- in favour of Britain in this imme- forts to divert Argentinie | means, and our uncertainty, it these high: matters, to the level of the groundwork of diplomacy in would be enhanced almost to the Now we are in no doubt about the obstacles, which would reduce mans are going to win-which is diate contest. Those chances foodstuffs to Spain. It is any, is only about the sufficiency cash and carry. But since they Europe to-day. They have whole point of certainty (if anything not improbable that the of them at our disposal to deal as invite and welcome frankness we heartedly given their vote to Bri- can be certain in war) by the forcibly and promptly with the need feel no hesitation in explain-tain and pledged themselves to acquisition of the Irish bases by United States can also danger as we should wish. ing to them that what we most send her all possible aid short of Eritain, or by ayserimus: embroil- The other side of the compari- need at this moment is the quick; war. Im dealing with America wement of Germany in an eastern ör play an effective part in
son is equally, important. In 1917 delivery of 'plangs, ships, and all are saved from the obscurities and south-eastern theatre of war, or reducing supplies that the U-boat could finds its way supplies which may help us to complexities which make It so both." might reach Germany Into the Atlantic only through the provide sufficient escorts and their difficult to understand the Euro The latter possibility is largely bottle-neck of the Straits of Dov- equipment, for our convoys; and pean situation at any given mo- bound up with the progress of through Russia.
ler or round the north coast of so enable us to meet the Germanment.
events in the Mediterran
war which we
two occasions:
the
acquire, any such as these, out of reach of
many.
Be part of a big neutral well as similarities between thedit which may arise between us is needed to give effect to them.sibilities can be fully exploited to
"
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