THE CHINA MAIL, FEBRUARY 20, 1940
PROSPECT OF VICTORY
Where will Hitler strike?
Battle on land.
This is the sphere of warfare in which the Germants are supreme. This is where the tradition of the race, as well
as the weight of mobilised men, gives advantage to our enemy.
And it is idle to pretend that a victory by the German army over the military forces of the Allied Powers could not be a decisive event in this struggle. It could, in certain circums- tances.
We must therefore look at the array of forces on land with a close and even anxious gaze. What is the post- tion?
The Germans will have 240 divisions of trained men to deploy on the West- ern Front by the spring of the year. When the swallows return and the buds burst on the branches this mighty host of warriors can be assembled be- hind the Siegfried Line.
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*
What is the size of the army that holds the Maginot Line? Many say that it is one-half of the force on the German side I know nothing of the figures, and I am not going to attempt an inquiry. But it is stated in French newspapers that, battle breaks in the month of March the Germany will outnumber the Allied divisions by two to one.
But
That gives Hitler a big preponder- ance on the main front of war. is the preponderance sufficient to give him the assurance of victory? Indeed not.
-By George Malcolm Thomson
Concrete and the machine-gun are worth many additional soldiers to a defending force.
Three to one, four to one, or may- be, even five to one. That is conceded by experts as the superiority which an attacking force must possess if it is to have a prospect of success against prepared fortifications equipped with plenty of machine-guns.
Some people think that they will in- vade Holland and Belglum, by that method coming down upon a French frontier less strongly fortifled then the front that faces Germany.
In addition, the Germans would secure for themselves new submarine bases to use against Britain. And they would establish airfelds on Dutch soll enabling them to strike heavier blows at Britain.
That is the story. And a few weeks ago it was believed that this German attack was imminent. It did not take place. And Hitler never meant it to take place. The story was spread by the German propaganda machine to frighten neutrals.
The fact is that an attack on the Low Countries would bring Hitler more troubles than advantages. The British blockade would
come down
on those countries, cutting off the goods which at present enter Germany through their ports.
Germany would lose the Dutch agricultural production which is very important to her. If the Germans could establish airfields nearer us we would fly over Dutch territory to de- liver our counter-attack on the Ger- man industrial regions.
to
This is the second of the bril Hlant series of articles George Malcolm Thomson has written for the China Mail,
The first article, yesterday, con- aldered the question of man- power and suppiles. Mr. Thom- son's conclusion was: Ruling out an internal collapse in Germany, the war will end either by ex- haustion or by a peace of nego- tiation. Whichever it may be, the Allies will be on top.
And the Germans would have deal not only with the weak Dutch army, but also with the much stronger Belgian army of 700,000 men, possess ing excellent artillery and defending also be the burying-place of his fortifled positions.
is
And behind the Belgians there now a strong line of defences, quite as strong as the Maginot Line.
If the attack on the Low Countries
was a bad bet for Hitler last autumn, it is a worse bet for him now that
this new defensive line has been built. He did not intend to deliver the attack
then. He will not do so now.
Will he turn towards the East then,
marching down through the Balkans?
ambitions
Page
GREAT WAR SLOGAN REVIVED
(SPECIAL TO "CHINA MAIL")
BERNE, TO-DAY, THE GERMAN BLOGAN OF THE WORLD WAR, "GOTT STRAFE ENGLAND," AGAIN ECHOED IN BERLIN AS A RESULT OF THE ALTMARK INCIDENT.
The importance attached in Germany to the Altmark incident is seen in the fact that the Wilhelmstrasse summon- ed foreign press correspondents when the Nazi spokesman stated: "The Bri- tish Government is henceforth con- sidered as a criminal,"
The moment that Britain decided to support Norway and give assistance to Sweden, the Norwegians, a sturdy people, would give our Navy the right to enter their ports. The Swedes would give us access to the Baltic. And there the striking power dowed German terroristic and
of our naval force would be effective.
The "Basler Nachrichten” foresha-
un- along In our Church, there is an injunc-restricted submarine warfare
the English const accompanied by tion spoken by the minister on Com-
large-scale aerial warfare. Neutral
This again would be a development munion Sunday, "He that eateth and nations will be warned that they are
in the war containing advantage for us.. For the only point at which a German drive in this direction could become dangerous for us would be an attack on Asia Minor. And then we could count on the support of the Turks.
It would be our object to hold the crossing of the Bosphorus. The for- ward defences of this crossing are the Chatalja lines. There
we should stand.
And concrete and the machine-gun give us equality with an enemy taking In a Mediterranean war, the position the offensive. The wat in the West is of Italy would be most important. a struggle hot between generals but But as Gibraltar, Suez and the Dar- between a corporal and a sergeant. danelles are in the hands of the Allies The corporal is Hitler, who built the and Turkey, their friend, the sea is Siegfridd Lige. The sergeant is controlled by us. It is a big Scapa Maginot, the Frenchman responsible Flow. for building France's line of defence. Pill-boxes count for more than gen- erals, Though in 1914 the comman- der cut a big figure, we are differently to the sea only with Italian conni- placed from that war.
At Toulon, on the French coast, and Bizerta, in Tunis, was have access to bases. But the Germans can get down
vance. They are in a worse position Then we had at the head of our than in the last war when they con- army a man who commanded a great trolled the Austrian naval ports in deal of public attention. Sir John the Adriatic, French. He was known to the public. He had a great reputation as a cavalry leader in the Bouth African War. Besides, he had a measure of command which Lord Gort does not have.
Gort has neither the prominence nor the command. But as he is the leader of our soldiers in battle it is desirable that this general should be dramatised, popularised, made a figure in the eyes of the nation.
But there is another area where the Germans can make an advance. The Baltic. Scandinavia. Hitler may be looking in this direction. If he in- vaded and conquered - Sweden, he would seize valuable industrial and financial assets. He would get his grip on the Swedish iron ore mines. It would be an easier enterprise for In the totalitarian States, where him than the Balkan compaign. His the Government is never so effective fleet commands the Baltic. And, by in waging war, the personality of the overrunning Denmark-no arduous leader is always publicised. He is task he would be in a position to made; by propaganda, an exciting and inspiring figure.
so.
of the wa
make a landing on Swedish soil.
The resistance of the Swedes would, But in demoreratic States it is not no doubt be brave. But it would be The military chief mult win the unavailing, especially if 'a ⠀ German attention of the people by his conduct, attack in the south were supplemented- by a Rusglan attack in the north, from Bvreda kave good guns," but few airplanes and no tanks.
-Hitler would gain a rich loot. Sweden must tempt him greatly...... But if Sweden is his temptation, : it› may
It may be said that there is no need Finland. to popularise our general, Lord Gort, becatise:The: Germans are baulked on the Warter: Front. If that is, 80, where will they turnt
drinketh unworthily, eateth drinketh damnation to himself."
and
That can be applied to Hitler. If he goes into Sweden or invades Nor- way, he settles and determines his own fate.
Under these conditions the war will not be long. The result will not be in doubt. The defeat of the Germans will be certain and assured,
(World Copyright).
running great risks British coasts.—Havas.
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approaching
CANADA'S STRENGTH-
Ottawa, To-day. Canada's combined military and naval air force strength has reached over 90,000, according to an announce- ment by the National Defence. De
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