THE CHINA MAIL, FEBRUARY 19, 1940
Page
PROSPECT OF VICTORY
опе
Let us weigh the chances of victory. Britain's and France's on the hand, Germany's on the other. Let us carry out this calculation on the assumption that there is no exten- sion of the battle-front. That nei- ther one side nor the other is jolned by new allies.
assassinate
power on
arson and murder. At the sume time, he is a real leader of the na- tion.
started with the
&
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ed.
What are the chances of Britain bringing this war to a glorious and successful end? Will there be great land battles? Will Lon- don ba bombed? Will the German Navy ever venture out?
George Malcolm Thomson, dia- | tinguished political Journalist, haa made a deep and detalled in- quiry into these questions for the the "China Mall," ranging over whole possiblities of the war. His investigation has taken many weeks.
As a result, the here is the first complete picture of the war.
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So what is the result of our survey? If we rule out an internal collapse in Germany, destroying her power to resist, the war will end in one two days:
neutrals is very different from the last lations may make no contribution to In assessing the balance-sheet, we war. In 1915 the Germany were our fighting front, but we can rely face the fact that Germany possesses looked on as the military masters of on them to provide much raw material. a considerable advantage in the per- Europe. In 1940 they are thought Hitler, too, has his subject peoples. sonality of Hitler. It is true that to be destined to destruction and ruin. Thirty millions of them. But in his many people in Germany detest him.
case they are a liability. He may Attempts are made to
use them as industrial serfs. But he attack, we can forge weapons of him. He has built his
Where are the advantages of the must maintain a large force of soldiers, war which we may summon to our Allles which, in the opinion of neu- police and spies to Hold down those nid at will. trals, outweigh the aggregation of Poles and Czechs who hate his rule. Among them discontent will grow. powers that has just been described? In the last war, too, the Germans First, the leadership, Mr. Cham- Before long disorder will be promot-
advantage of an berlain's political judgment was good.
And when the days of military impressive figurehead. The Kaiser. But, in view of his own bellefs, he reverse come for Hitler, strife and
of And they made full use of the asset, might have acted differently. He turmoil, breaking out in his occupied He was a dramatic and spectacular had no faith in Russia. Yet he gave territories, may become a decisive fac-
A peace by negotiation. Or a leader for a people in arms. In the a guarantee to Poland which could tor in the war. early stages of the struggle his not possibly be implemented except In any case, the preponderance of peace achieved at the end of a war speeches, rousing and sustaining the with Russian assistance. Even so, he fighting people on the allied side must of exhaustion.
I am convinced that if there is fighting spirit of his people, could not might have compelled the Poles to have an influence on the spirit with
the peace by negotiation we will have be equalled by anything of the same stand on the Vistula-San line, where which the German people face kind on the Allied side.
they ought to have erected their de- struggle. They will near with dis- imfense advantages. If we sit down Indeed, it was quite a common ex- fences. So we must give him credit may that a Canadian division, 20,000 at that table we will hold high cards hand, Boundless resources perience to hear it said, "If only we for his prescience about Russia, while strong, has landed on our shores, that in our had a leader like Kaiser William!"
regretting that he did not insist on trained Australian airmen have ar- that are piling up all the time in the one #quadron of the form of trained contingents, equip- a complete organisation of Polish de- rived, that fences along the line of the two R.A.F. is manned entirely by Cana- ment, weapons, and munitions plant. rivers.
dians, that New Zealanders are train- A capacity for war that is steadily Mr. Chamberlain has his faiths, ing here and that troops from India growing in power.
In a war of exhaustion we have the have reached France. His desire for peace commands trust of everyone. So when he truns This assembling of fighting power not only our own resources to de- We command the resources of must be disturbing to the Germans. ploy.
Colonies. They can have no illusions about the our Dominions and Crown aptitude for modern war of the ad- And we will always receive sympathe~ venturous and coolheaded young men tle consideration from the people of
the United States of America,
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а nre
Then again, the Germans compact mass of population eighty millions strong, so situated in Europe this that, when they strike out in direction or the other, they compel their adversaries to hold more ex- tended lines than Germany needs to defend.
In the naval war, they have adopt- ed with some success a tip-and-run strategy. They compel us to employ a large fleet while they hold thetr own position with a small fleet.
In the air, although the
Initiative
has so far been entirely in the hands of Britain, American observers believe
that the Germans have more fighters
-By George Malcolm Thomson
and bombers than Britain and France to war, he unites those sections
in
combined, a bigger output of new the nation who want to resist Germany aircraft and a larger force of train- with the others who seek to appease ed pilots.
And, thanks to her central position on the map of Europe, Germany can swing the weight of an air attack from one quarter of the compass to another more swiftly and effectively than we can.
Besides, Hitler has Russia behind him To what extent we do not know. That friendship may grow warmer; or it may cool off into indifference even hatred. We cannot predict, But, whatever value there is in as- sociation with Russia, it belongs to Germany and not to us.
her.
figure.
Mr. Chamberlain is a unifying
Then there is Mr. Churchill, in war worth a great deal. He mobilises behind the Government the elements determined in the country that are to end aggression. He is a man who understands war, whose passions are involved in it.
The figure of Mr. Hore-Belisha was imposing and inspiring to many per- sons. His disappearance from office may be good for the Army, but the Government is damaged.
If there is no outstanding military In the Balkans, too, the Germans leader on the allied side, the same have an advantage over us. They is true of Germany. If we have no are in closer touch with the popula- Kitchener, they have no Ludendorff tions. They have been successful in neutralising Jugoslavia which, in the last war, furnished the best warriors to the allied forces, if Britain and France are excepted.
Our naval commanders are men un- known to the public. Yet in the last who war Beatty was a personality meant a great deal to the people. As for the Royal Air Force, nobody our outside the Services can name air marshals.
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With Italy, the Germans have more friendly relations than we enjoy, al- though they have allenated Italian and Spanish sympathy by the pact with Moscow. One result has been What can the Allies array against that the Spanish frontier, once re- Hitler's eighty millions? garded as the source of a potential Frenchmen, 43 millions, British citi- menace to France, is now calm and zens in the United Kingdom; 44' `mil-" peaceful,
Hons, with another 21 millions in the German assets for the war are for Commonwealth a total of 108 million midable, then. Yet Americans, well- members of two of the most energetic informed- students of affairs, ~men~and highly civilised races on earth. who form sound judgments, will tell. The countless millions of the colonial you that Britain and France will populations. Inhabiting territories win the war.
garrisoned" and policed by a mere among Handful of trained men. These popu-
Indeed, the general
view
from the Dominions.
So if it is to be a battle of exhaus-
And if Germany derives some ad- vantage from her geographical posi- tion, there, too, victory will ride with
tion, the scattered nature of the Bri~~US, tish Empire lends Immense resillence to our war-power. While we hold the seas, the products of every climate and continent pour into our harbours. And, in lands far from any danger of
(World Copyright.)
To-morrow: Battle On Land
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