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SATISFYING
THE CHINA MAIL, NÖVEMBER 25, 1939
TURKEY'S PACT WITH ALLIES A BLOW TO GERMAN EXPANSION
WE have a new ally-Turkey. Most ten-threatening the independence of
acious of our opponents in the last world war, Turkey has joined the Allied Anti-Aggression Front for the best of all possible reasons. . She has taken careful stock of the world situation and has con- cluded that it is in her own best interests to do so.
Her decision was taken many, months ago. Her promise to assist us in resisting ag gression in the Mediterranean and Balkan arcas was given publicly by her Premier and endorsed unanimously by her 'Parlia ment last spring. It is doubly satisfactory that the formal treaty, expressing the man- ner and circumstances of the mutual guar- antees, should be signed when war In Europe has already been joined. In this fact lies the proof that this is no mere scrap of paper.
VON PAPEN'S NEXT MISSION
Up to the last moment von Papen, most crafty of German Ambassadors, has striv- en to prevent the new alliance. He did so on the most urgent orders of his master, frequently reiterated. Throughout the spring and summer he has been painting an alluring picture of the part which Tur- key might play in the South Balkans.
Von Papen has left Angora and has been spending an
In uncomfortable week-end Berlin explaining matters to Hitler and von Ribbentrop. He seems to have assumed that his mission was at an end, but the Nazi leaders, keenly alive to the blow struck at their plans for south-eastward expansion, may send him back. He is an arch-intri- guer, and if there is anything to be done in the way of creating, or increasing, Russo- Turkish friction von Papen is the man for the job.
In Iran, which to most of us is still more familiar as Perala, and in Afghanistan. German trouble-makers are also busy. They have undoubtedly tried to induce the Soviet Government to join them in making new areas of difficulty for the British Empire, though it is by no menas clear that the Kremlin wants to pick a 'quarrel with us. There is no positive evidence in the shape of exceptional Soviet troop concentrations on those frontiers to suggest that a new theatre of war is about to be opened.
The Turkish Government can be relied on to maintain close touch with any develop ments. Turkey is a partner with Iran, Irak and Afghanistan in a system on which she has relied for security against attack from the south-east.
Since 1925, when she concluded her treaty of friendship and neutrality with Soviet Ruspla, she has felt safe against attack from the north and north-east. Since 1934 she has enjoyed two safeguards against attack from the west; namely, the Balkan Pact of mutual assistance, whereby Turkey, Ru- mania, Greece and Jugoslavia guarantee each other's Balkan frontiers, and the Tur- kish army itself, which feels well able to take care of any hostile move by Bulgaria, TURKEY'S OWN INTERESTS
Leaving aside for the moment considera- tion of the Balkan situation, which seems, after some years of political fluidity, to be hardening under the pressure of Germany, I would emphasise those "Turkish national interests" which have helped the Govern- ment of Ankara to decide to conclude the new Anglo-Frenco-Turkish treaty.
Turkey, as I have said, felt secure in res- pect of the east, north and west. Under the wise rule of Kemal Ataturk she conclud- ed that she had ample scope for develop- ment within her existing smaller frontiers, and had no ambitions to regain her one- time extensive European possessions. It followed that her anxieties were limited to the south-in other words, her Mediter- ranean seaboard, which could be menaced if Italian aims to dominate the eastern Mediterranean were pursued. Automatical- ly It followed that Turkish and British in- terests to a lesser extent, French interests, also were identical. All were concerned to see the Mediterranean status quo preserved. ONE BENEFIT FROM MUNICH Curiously enough-and I make the state- ment on first-hand authority-it was
the attitude taken up by British In the 1938 autumn crisis which proved decisive in the Turkish mind. For the British attitude in the events culminating in the Munich Agreé- ment convinced Turkey beyond all
doubt that Britain could have no expansionist alms.
By the latest treaty it is established that a renewed German thrust to the south-east,
Rumania,
would call into play still closer consultation between the western Allies and Turkey. Should that threat develop into an armed thrust which Rumania felt compelled to re- sist with her armed forces, Turkey would Join us as allies at war with Germany, The same is true in respect of Greece, although the contingency seems more remote,
The Dardanelles and Bosphorous, now could be closed to belligerent warships, opened if Britain and France wished to en- ter the Black Sea in order to give direct On the other hand it support to Rumania. is by no means certain that Allied strategy would call for this particular action, while there is certainly no present desire to em-
On the.. barrass Russo-Turkish relations. contrary, London has welcomed the obvious Soviet desire to stress the continuance of the
of old friendship with the guardian
the Black Sea gate.
Since that gate, in its furn, is guarded from without by the Allied navies it might possibly be deduced, once again, that the Soviet's larger interests, like those of Tur- key, lle on the side of France and "Britain rather than on the side of Germany. There are, however, more immediate considera- tions which probably weigh with the Krem- lin. These concern the Balkans.
BALKANS CONSOLIDATION
Since the outbreak of war there has been a marked effort by the Balkan countries to forget old grievances and to unit themselves politically and economically in the first loose structure of a federation. It is interesting to see that Hungary is taking part in these conversations and has gone far towards accommodations with Rumania and Jugo- slavia Turkey throughout the summer has been encouraging these tendencies.
In the last week it has been broadly hint- ed from Rome that Italy, with direct Balkan interests since her annexation of Albania, is working for the same ends. While it is too early to say that Turkey and Italy will thereby become reconciled as collaborators, there is an encouraging trend of opinion in both capitals pointing in that direction. One does not yet know how this fits in or may conflict with Soviet plans.
If it be true that Russia has now gained most of her objects and that these are limit- ed to increasing her own security in the west, she may be content to see others con- solidating the Balkans, so long as Germany is excluded. On the other hand there are those who believe that the Kremlin has am- bitions to dominate the Balkans itself, and
will guarantee Balkan frontiers only when these have been varied in the Russian in- terest.
Indications from Moscow suggest that the military leaders, as was to be expected, have gained increased authority since the mobilisation and operations conducted dur ing the war. Negotiations with Finland are proving difficult and this suggests that the Kremlin, without much regard, for the terms of the Soviet-Finnish treaty of 1932, which runs until 1945, are pressing for a military alliance which would be incompatible with Finnish neutrality. On the other hand com- mercial discussions between the British and Soviet Governments are proceeding in а rather encouraging atmosphere, while Ger- man mortification over the surrender of the Baltic to Russia again seems to belle exis- tence of a good Russo-German understand- Ing.
It will be wisest to defer judgment on these complicated matters until fuller in- formation is available. There is, however, another development during the past week which so far has passed little noticed. It may become of considerable Importance. Hitler, it has been stated from several quar- ters, is now obsessed with plans for large- scale movements of population in Europe,
MASS MIGRATION PLAN Withdrawal of German minorities from the Baltic States may be the prelude to similar action in respect of other European countries. It seems that- von, Ribbentrop in his last talk with Stalin stressed this aspect of Hitler's plans. I have heard, it reported that he even went so far as to explain that Hitler contemplated removing the whole of the German Rhineland population from the left bank of the Rhine to the right "in order to remove the last basis for friction between Germany and. France."
Last week a German delegation arrived in Moscow to discuss plans for exchanges of population. We do not yet know the full scope of these negotiations.. 1 can state,
(Continued on Page 11)
By George McManus
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