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THE CHINA MAIL, NOVEMBER 20, 1939.
WHERE WILL HITLER DELIVER HIS BLOW IN THE WEST?
·
are, however, mobillsed and strong- ly posted, with masses of réserves made available by the restricted width of the front.
Few soldiers would care to have opposing armies. The Allied armles to solve the strategic problem which Hitler has set his General Staff as a consequence of his having counted too confidently on the acceptance by the Allies of the fait accompli in
Such an attempt might produce an Poland.
epic struggle, with immense sacrifice The problem, of course, as is the of life on both sides, but it could case generally in strategy, is not hardly hold out prospects of decisive purely military; economic and poli-success, and failure to achieve a deci- tical factors are essential elements sion would only accelerate the ex- in it and must be weighed. The in-haustion of German material re- ternal economic condition of Ger- sources which might prove irreplac- many and the morale of the German | able.
people in particular require special Only overwhelming confidence in consideration-the more so if we the quantity and quality of German accept the view authoritatively held troops and armaments could justify that in these respects the condition such a desperate course. Such con- of Germany at present is on a par❘fidence the Germans may possess, with what it had been reduced to by but it is opposed by equal confidence 1917 in the last war.
on the side of the Allies and by al- INDECISIVE AIR ATTACK
most unlimited material resources What is the essential feature of the which Germany does not command. military problem? It is obviously The experiences of the last war can that the opposing armies confront afford Germany little hope that at- each other in elaborately fortified tack under
conditions positions in an arena which, con- would succeed. sidering their size, is extraordinarily restricted in length, and is further restricted, not only by the Rhine, which may be considered an almost impassable obstacle, but by moun- tainous country and by minor river
lines.
Politically it may be said that the Allies are committed to offensive action, and therefore, from a pure ly military standpoint, the simplest solution would be for the German Army, in a strong position, to stand on the defensive. That would be the obvious course if Hitler were confident that the country's economic condition and morale could, over а long period, withstand the pressure of blockade.
As economists, however, maintain that the assistance that can be given her by Russia or neighbouring neu- trals would be insufficient for
her needs, a military commentator justified in examining the courses open to Germany if she is compelled for economic internal reasons to take the offensive.
is
3
such
Furthermore, a lesson of the last war is that an offensive which is the brought to a stand-still incurs danger of counter-attack. A partial success which leaves an army in an exposed and hastily-consolidated position is in fact a source of dan- ger. Gamelin's cautious advance before the Siegfried Line shows that he fully realises this.
Where else can the German Gen- eral Staff look for an opening? If they could find one by violating neu- tral territory. they will not, we may be sure, be deterred by scruples, and they may think that in the Siegfried Line they hold a solid pivot of manoeuvre.
On the one flank there is Switzer- land, but apart from the resistance the Swiss are capable of offering the nature of the country would restrict the scope of German operations. formid- Moreover, the French have able defences, both natural and ar- tificial, on which to meet any such thrust, and it would also be vulner- able to interference by air counter- attacks.
One course open to her while her army stands on the defensive is to Unless Italy became an active confine offensive action to air at-partner the chances of Germany us- tacks on opponents' territory, trust-ing Switzerland as a passage-way ing to breaking down the will of for a major invasion of France seem their civil population.
Some years ago Goering and other extreme believers in air power might have advocated this course-and they still may. Obviously, however, the chances of achieving decision by air action alone has been reduced great- ly by the Allies' defensive measures. Moreover, experience in Spain, China and recently in Poland has shaken too confident belief in the power of air action to crush the morale of a civil population. There are certainly no indications that air' action alone would have broken the will of the Polish nation.
Apart from that Hitler must clear- ly be unwilling to expose his own people to air reprisals, both because of their economic and their moral effect.
WAY OF EXHAUSTION
A second alternative might be a violent ground and air offensive on the present front of contact of the
small, though subsidiary operations by that line are a possibility..
On the other flank the frontiers to Luxembourg, Belgium and Holland are exposed to invasion.
There can be little doubt that Luxembourg and the Ardennes dis- trict of Belgium might be overrun, although the nature of the country lends itself to delaying action, for which, in the case of Belgium, any rate an effective organisation exists.
at
Further advance, by a wheel to the south, would bring the invaders up against the extension of the Maginot Line, constructed, though in less elaborate form, along France's northern frontier.
An advancé to the west, similarly, would encounter the formidable obstacle of the Meuse, more strongly fortified than in 1914 and held by a better-trained Belgian army.
(Continued on Page 11)
By George McManus
BY JOVE-I WISH MR. JIGGS WOULD HURRY-THESE FOGS ARE A BIT DENSER THAN DEAR OLD LONDON-
OH-THERE YOU ARE-OR ARE YOU THERE? IS IT ALWAYS THIS FOGGY IN DENVER ?
BY GOLLY- I HAD A HARD TIME FINDIN' YOU ~ WHY STAND
RIGHT HERE?
FOG - NOTHIN' - YOU'VE BEEN STANDIN' RIGHT OVER A SWITCH. ENGINE THAT'S PARKED RIGHT UNDER THIS
BRIDGE-
(MEN) World Teles genrend
SILLY OF ME. WHAT?