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THE CHINA MAIL, FEBRUARY 6, 1939.
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Hong Kong, Monday, February 6, 1939
WAITING AND WATCHING
-
so-Polish agreement, refer in an article published in the “Sunday' Herald" last week to the "haste" with which Colonel Beck, în fear of Germany, had proceeded to link Warsaw with Moscow, des- pite the virtual Soviet ultima- tum of September. Yet before it was printed the Polish Foreign Minister, returning from his holi- day in the winter sunshine of the Riviera, had held talks with Herr Hitler which may even despite. Ribbentrop's comparative failure in Warsaw, prove hardly less fateful to the future of Europe Camberlain-Mussolini conversations in Rome. There is, of course, nothing unusual in this alternation of Polish policy be- tween Russia and Germany. Ever since the recovery of her inde- pendence after the Great War, and particularly since Germany and Russia have recuperated their exhausted energies, Poland has been torn between hopes and fears of her giant neighbours, an approach towards one being re- garded as a hostile move by the other. What is surprising, and significant of the growing mo- mentum of developments in East- ern Europe, is the speed with which Colonel Beck moved. Hard- ly had he yielded to the blandish- ments of Moscow, counselling that security against German ambi- tions in Danzig and the Ukraine lay in co-operation with Russia, than Herr Hitler has lured him to Berlin with visions of safety to be found in an extension of the anti-Comintern Pact. Whe- ther Codlin is really the friend, or Short, Colonel Beck apparent- ly is still unable to decide. - No doubt he, would prefer to have them. both as good neighbours, and meanwhile he is prepared to lend an attentive ear to each, at
A
3.
month!
If circumstances force Poland to come down on one side or other of the Russo-German fence, it will probably be the Nazi side. There is no mistaking the ascen- dancy of Germany in Europe since Munich. The arbiter of frontiers, the dispenser of peace or war, re- sides at Berchtesgaden. Even Poland,
no little State with its 34,00,000 of population and its fine army,
walks in fear of the Nazi power.
There is a modern Polish proverb, which the fate of Czechoslovakia seemed to make specially. apposite: "God is high above and France far away." On the other hand, the might of Germany seems to draw nearer and grow greater. Other nations than Poland are feeling its op- pressive attraction. The Hungar- ian Premier and the Czechoslovak are fresh Foreign Minister
.
Signor Mussolini's speech, no intervals of no more than more than Herr Hitler's, gave any real care to where and how Italian and German expansion ist aspirations will be felt. It is still possible to ask the question, Can Europe, having survived crisis after crisis during 1938, maintain unbroken if uneasy peace in 1939? Such questions are far from being merely rhetori- cal. He would be an optimist in- deed who could read the interna-] tional barometer as set for fair weather during the next few months. The intense diplomatic activity now proceeding, on the contrary, indicates a continuance of uncertainty and mistrust. If the theory that latent war. pre- vails in Europe be accepted, it will be natural to interpret all the leading events-whether they oc- cur on the wintry battlefields of Catalonia, where Republican Spain is in death-grapple with the Francoist-Italian armies, or in the secrecy of the chancelleries—as a manoeuvring for position by the Powers for the struggle which, despite Munich, some of them may still believe to be inevitable. So swift are the moves in this battle for politico-strategic ad- vantages, · so unpredictable the groupings and regroupings of the nations concerned, that the best informed commentary has dif- ficulty in keeping pace with events.
from visits to Ber- back lin, linked with Germany's plans to strengthen the anti- Communist bloc which means, setting aside the ideological cloak, that she wants to clear the way for the detachment and appro- priation of the Russian Ukraine. Even the Czechs, still nominally 'the allies of the Soviet, will be expected to play their part in this enterprise, if it is true that Herr Hitler is pressing a military alliance upon them. They are now definitely within the German or- bit, and the smaller States of South-eastern Europe appear bound to follow them. What Mr. Churchill calls "the raw morrow of Munich" is losing none of its bleakness for the. Western demo-. cracies as time goes on. Every shift in the European scene seems to favour the "axis" Powers and, unless Mr. Chamberlain (or ~Mr. Roosevelt) can work something Thus Mr. Churchill, writing on like a miracle, the coming months the morrow of last month's Rus- I are likely to be still disturbing.