THE CHINA MAIL DOUBLE TENTH SUPPLEMENT.
APPRAISAL OF THE SINO- JAPANESE CONFLICT
Ο
N the surface it seems that the Chinese struggle is reach- ing some sort of climax in the present battles in the Yangtze Valley. If the Japanese take Hankow, as they probably will, despite the heroic quality of Chin- ese resistance, they will hope that the Chinese will surrender. But the Chinese won't, any more than they surrendered after the loss of Nanking in December. On the other hand, I think it highly un- likely that the Japanese will blow up, fade away, or otherwise make a Chinese victory possible More and In the near future. more it looks like a stalemate, a deadlock, with both armies pinion- ed together in indecisive conflict. If this stalemate should persist, the eventual result, will almost certainly depend on two things morale,and supplies. Therefore it is useful to summarize the posi- tion of both China and Japan with regard to these factors.
60 million peo- People say that ple cannot conquer 400 million people. That is dubious. Sixty million people can easily conquer 400 million people, provided that the 60 million have arms and supplies, and the 400 million haven't. People say that the Ja- panese are hopelessly bogged down in China. They are certain- ly facing greater difficulties than they anticipated, and they are certainly months behind their schedule, but I don't think that they
are really bogged down. And people say that there will be a severe economic crisis in Japan, with possible consequent social
revolution, if the war lasts much. longer. This is possible; but I do not think it is likely for a year or two. The catch is, how much longer, is "much?”
The great Chinese weakness is artillery. Chinese munitions plants can manufacture small arms and machine-guns, but not .precision instruments of quality and not much artillery. Nor have the Chinese anywhere near enough aircraft. The Russians have sent in a few pilots and planes, but not many. An air raid in China is. apt to be a pitiable experience. The Japanese no long- er bomb with impunity, as they once did, and almost always they lose planes in dog fights, but the Chinese anti-aircraft equipment is insufficient and relatively in- ̈ ́ effective, with the result that the enemy usually inflicts severe ma- terial damage. .
Japan, on the other hand, has pretty much all the supplies it needs. We in the United States bear partial responsibility for this. It goes without saying that Japan feels some drain. Petrol is carefully rationed, and building construction has been stopped in order to conserve supplies.
Yet it would be risky to say that Japan is going broke. Totali- tarian states-Japan has been a totalitarian state since about the sixteenth century-can perform incredible juggleries with money, especially in time of war. thing to watch is the export trade, because the best informed people in Japan think that the country's supply of crucial raw
The
JAPAN'S CIVILISING material-steel, petroleum, etc.— can last only about eighteen months more. There is no cur-
13
ASIÀ. MISSION IN rency crisis or inflation as „yet, though currency control is very (Continued on page 14)
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