THE CHINA MAIL DOUBLE TENTH SUPPLEMENT-
CHINA'S ECONOMIC FUTURE REVIEWED
PROBABLY the newcomer.
to China would be per- plexed to know what to be- lieve about the economic future of the country, writes F. L Pratt in the China Press, The pessimist would insist that irredeemable col- lapse was only a matter of time. The optimist would tell him that China has the re- source and the courage to overcome present difficulties as she has successfully sur- mounted those encountered in the past.
Provided that the newcomer was put in possession of well- authenticated facts and figures, realised the new spirit which is abroad and knew something of the long history of this country. be would. without doubt, even- tually give full credence to the optimist.
China may be compared to a granite cliff facing the ocean, On occasion the waves of adver sity beat-with apparently irre- · sistible force-against her, sub- jecting her to relentless buffet- ing. But the waves invariably moderate in due time. while the cliff remains--none the worse for the assaults that it has counter- ed and repelled.
The hindrances to China's economic development in the past have been numerous. Some of them have been partially over- come by political changes and a growing sense on the part of responsible leaders that China could no longer neglect measures to bring her abreast of other nations in economic progress. Some of the hindrances could, it was recognised, be removed by: well-directed national effort, and that effort has been, and is now
more
intensively being. made.
an
overwhelming
To mention a few of the dis- abilities that have checked econo- mic progress, the agriculturists. who form majority of the people. (the per- centage of farm households to the total households of the coun- try is estimated to be 74.5) are. still for the most part apathetic and conservative.
Until quite recently, the pro- vincial officials were mostly in- different to the need of the dis- tricts in which they were station- ed. This unfortunately is still the case in some provinces.
Other disabilities are the na- tural calamities, drought, floods and famines, which periodically afflict this land. The high rates of interest, irregular taxation. and the financial stringency— which has always been a night- Ministers of Finance mare to
since the Republic was establish- ed, and which has been greatly accentuated of late by foreign aggression, the compulsory heavy military expenditure, the loss of revenue from Manchuria and the American silver policy have retarding also been grave factors.
dis-
But perhaps the chief ability has been the paucity of communications. Before the es- tablishment of the Republic, road-making on anything like an adequate scale was unknown. In the Manchu days a few high-
General Pei Chung-hsi, former vice Commander-in-Chief of the Fourth Group Army, seen in the centre, photographed after an official reception given in his honour in Kwangsi recently.
Dr. H. H. Kung, the Chinese Minister of Finance.
ways which focussed on Peiping were maintained by the Imperial Government, principally for the transportation of tribute and Apart for military purposes. from these highways there were
few roads of much value for the transport of goods by wheeled vehicles.
men
In former days, in the mopn- tainous parts of the country.
roads there were few
except those used by coolie carriers. The amount that these could carry was necessarily re- stricted as was the distance that they could cover. tion charges added immensely to the cost of goods when they reached their destination and this acted as a very real restraint of trade. Economic development was consequently retarded.
Transporta-
"
Some provinces, notably Kiang- si, Fukien. Kweichow and Sze- chwan, have greatly benefitted as a consequence of the road work done at the instigation of General Chiang Kai-shek during ́: the campaign against the Com- roads munists. Although the then built were primarily for military purposes, they were de signed to be permanent additions to the existing means of com- munication." They are proving to be of great value to the rural populace, as they enable the facile dispatch of products to markets that were previously in- accessible,
Probably it is not generally, known that road making in China has already brought the mast remote of the south-western provinces into touch with Shang- hai by motor. When a few gaps are closed, it will be possible to drive a car from Shanghai to Singapore. Similarly very little remains to be done in the west- ern provinces to render motor
of
trips from the east coast China to the west of Europe feasible. This article is chiefly concerned with 'economic de- velopment, but it is obvious that economic advantages necessarily follow the creation of these new travel routes.
Appallingly high rates of in- terest have long been a serious" brake upen economic develop- ment in China. Conditions in the various provinces may vary, but generally speaking the high rates of interest exacted for loans are largely responsible for causing a serious check to the development of trade. and for withholding from the producer the fair reward that he might reasonably expect.
Emphasis has been hitherto mainly placed upon the difficul- ties that have to be surmounted before China can reap the full benefit of the unremitting in- dustry of her people and her en- The ormous natural resources. more pleasing task has now ter
what be faced of showing
that favourable factors exist might give ground for optimism. Anyone who has been closely as sociated with China for a leng- thy period cannot have failed to be astounded at the quick re covery invariably made after natural or other calamities of a major character. One year mil- lions are on the verge of starva- tion as a consequence of floods, or the depredations of bandits. The latter frequently denude the farmers in extensive regions of their live stock, their seed grain and even of their farming im- plements. The farmers are left ütterly destitute--but never des- pairing.
which In circumstances in many other races would have been rendered apathetic and hopeless, the Chinese set patient ly at work at a task equivalent to making bricks without straw, and-in seeming contradiction to possibility-they succeed! In an incredibly short time the ravages wrought by man or nature are repaired and the rich land again rewards the tillers.
The character of the people is, therefore, one of the chief justi- fications of hope for the future Then, of in the economic sense. supreme importance is the atti- tude of the National Govern- ment. In other days, although the betterment of economic con- ditions was repeatedly declared to be one of the main preoccupa- tions of the Government, little or.
Dr. Quo Tai-chi, the Chinese Minister in London. has done much to foster Anglo-Chinese friendship.
nothing was done to improve matters, Practically no effort was made to stir up the provin cial officials to a realisation that the promotion of trade was a most important duty. Neither was there any real effort made to abolish. or at least modify, the many oppressive and illegal taxes imposed by regional rulers. Of late, however, the National Government has seriously taken the matter in hand. Removal of of irregular many of the evils and oppressive taxation is not the least of its accomplishments. It has also inculcated in many a real of the provincial officials spirit of service.
In regard to the illegal taxes. the task of bettering the condi tions of the people was almost Herculean. For decades the rural population never knew precisely what exactions might be made. To end a condition like this was no easy task The Generalissimo. however, ably and loyally sup- ported by his colleagues, notably by Dr. H. H. Kung and Mr. T. V. Soong, has been able to bring about reform in province after province.
The Economic Reconstruction Movement, which was launched by the Generalissimo last year as a complement of the New. Life Movement promises to be to the of invaluable service economy of the country, Much im- has already been done to prove conditions, especially in Kiangsi, though attention has by no means been confined to that province by the National Econo- mic Council
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