SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 25, 1928.
BANK MEETING.
COLONY'S RECORD OF PROGRESS.
HINT TO CHINA.
Mr. Bernard's Review of Past-Year's Activities.
Presiding at the annual general meeting of the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation, at the City Hall this morning, the Hrn. Mr. D. G. M. Bernard most comprehensively reviewed the year's activities, both in regard in the Bank and China and the Far East generally.
lie drew attention to the Colóny's remarkable record of pro-
gress and in his final remarks, speaking of China's present plight, advocated that the middle classes should bind themselves into a practical and united opposition to the military tyranny that pre- The year's profit amounts to $14,239,288 which, together with the amount brought forward, comes to $17,638,353, a result described as eminently satisfactory.
vulle.
SURVEY OF FINANCE.
Take them as rend,
a
The Chairman said:-Ladies affairs. At the request, of your and Gentlemen,-The report and Directors. Mr. Barlow agreed to statement of accounts. having make a short visit to one or two been in your hands for some time, of the important Branches of the I shall, with your permission, Bank and also to Peking where we suffered a heavy loss owing to the complicated and dishonest transactions of a old and trusted silver available during 1927 there To arrive at the total amount of Chinese servant of the Bouk wip should be added to the produce had been our Compradore there, tion figures about Ozs. 30 millions for many years. At the conclu- representing silver sold by the zion of this visit, it is the inten- Fndian Government, sales, by the tion of your Phectors to invite, Bank of France and silver ship Mr. Barlow to accept a sest on pen from Japan to Shanghai. the London Consultative Com-) mitice of the Bank where his up-
Before we proceed as usual with the adoption of the report and accounts and a general survey of the past year, there are two matters upon which I should like to touch. First I wish to invite attention to the record of pro- gress in this Colony, the domicile of our bank, ns described so graphically by His Excellency the Governor in his speech to the Legislative Council last Septem-
ments of the past thirty years. don. We nee from the illuminating
THE CHINA MAIL,
European Situation.
run into
The state of China's trade in
decline, since 1914.
orders, party war.
This setback
labour
And
The
4
Such is tho
Salt Revenue.
11
Bnd
The
and
her when he recorded the achieve-f value vo ope Management in Lon about Standard Ozs. 110 millions. sion and the absence of public tic problems or of her foreign re- December last in respect to British military interference which has be
Directors did so in full confidence
merce,
Silver Fluctuations, withdrawal of any control and the cotton has suffered by the reduced ed class warfare. With mob-vio-has passed have ao for entirely During the past year the fluc money market regains its former capacity of two principal markets, lence and terrorism as its weapons, ignored this fundamental principle. tuation in the price of allver was, freedom of action. with the exception of 1928 and
China and Japan. It is a matter of grave concern the rupee India has reached a goal of the country, not even shunning money as possible, they have stary- In stabilising it has devastated the economie Bfo Intent only an extracting, as much 1925, the narrowest since 1911, that the Lancashire Textile Trade to which we have long been look the wholesale the range being between a maxi-is suffering so severely from the Ing and from which we may hope fenceless merchants and farmots urgent requirements. In auch 'eir- massacre of do cd the railways of even the most mum of 288, in February and a contraction of their China market for beneficial results. In the future. as we have lately seen in the ro-pamstances the rate of deteriora- · minimum of 24.8/4d. in January. The inevitable damage to the trade The average for the year was a resulting from the troubles In the Straits Settlements and Malaya, Ing excesses of the communist fac-to be feared that if some settlement:
This year has been uneventful in gions around Swatow. The appall- tion rapidly gathers pace, and it is fraction over 26d. The sale by China ia accentuated by Japanese trade being on the whole easy. The tion brought about the Government of India of competition, the statistics of which American demand for rubber fell which terminated in the expulsion shortly reached and the revenues Standard Ozs. 9,200,000 from show a steady improvement at short of expectations and restric last December of all Soviet repre- restored.to the railway administra- reaction of China's political disputes is not their holdings in the Silver Re- Great Britain's expense and by the tion on export. had to be slightly sentatives in Nationalist territory tions, some of the lines will before serve in July, was quietly and increasing proportion in cleverly effected without, imme- mills in China are supplying the
which raised to keep prices stendy. and the official repression of com-long become unworkable and will diate disturbance of the market. local demand. With any return to a serious less last summer. in the alist cause had clready, suffered ir-lions of dollars before they can The Philippine Islanda aufered munist activities. But the Nation-need the expenditure of many mil UNITED OPPOSITION TO MILITARY TYRANNY ADVOCATED. News of the transactions becom nermal conditions in China, the death of General Leonard Wood, reparable damage and the eradica-gain be rendered åt for regular
ing known after the sales were cotton industry is bound to make under whose wise and able ad- tion of communism is, I fear, very traffic. complete caused the market to rapid growth and it will need clos-ministration so much advance had far from complete. decline in price from a level of duetion, on the part of the Lanca- prosperity. With a steady and gen- bought with the price of open en- take fright and produced a sharp er co-operation and cheaper pro- been made towarda atability and harvest of Bolshovist friendship. 26d. to 24.15/16d. As the fear shire Manufacturers to meet the eral improvement in the state of mity towards
...As regards the Salt Revenue,. I of further sales by the Indian keen competition.
gradual, though hesitating, re- woollen goods seem to be holding creasingly firm footing.
ourselves and the will not burden you by reporting Government subalded, there was
the population, the finances of the other Powers and of an undermin-the-wearisome tale of illegal solz- In contrast to cottons British Islands are getting on to an in-ing of the Chinese social system, aures and disorganisation. Receipts covery in the price and 26d. was, their own in the China market.
process of which the end is not yet are now reduced to a negligible again reached in October,
Japan's Check,
in aight Truly China has reaped figure, the reserve of funds held by The chief absorbing countries for silver continue to be India The European economic situation ceived a severe check last April in ist movement in the South has rot provement occurs the whole of the Japan's economic progress, re-
the whirlwind,
the Group Banks is practically ex- and China and any serious falling the past year, helped by the pro- the failure of the important firm of materially changed the situation in loans dependent on Salt Revenue The develpment of the National-hausted and unless à marked * Im- has improved in complexion during the financial crisis which followed would soon react on the price of gressive, stabilisation of national Suzuki and off in their consumptive power the metal. In forming an opin- currencies and the smooth transfer banks to close their doors.
caused some thirty the North. The Northern militar-are doomed to fall into default.
ists have drawn somewhut closer, in upon the future trend of the of reparations payments from Ger-crisis was, on the whole, met with together and, with their approval, tion of local revenues has resulted I understand that a heavy redue-
tor to be borne in mind is the silver market, an important fact, many.
the courage and perseverance
Marshal Chang Tso-lin has assumed from the supersession of foreign The margin between discount which we have learnt to expect the position of dictator at Peking, employees of the Chinese Govern- policy which is likely to be adopt rates in London and New York. from the Japanese in their national The government nominated by him ment Salt Administration in No- ed by the Indian Government where the level was appreciably adversities, and the work of re-is. however, in conatent financial tionalist territory and I sincerely with regard to their holdings of lower, induced, on the one hand, construction which, though far stringency and is unable to pursue hope that the latter authorities are silver in the form of silver runces a greater financing of cotton bills from complete. has continued un- any administrative polley beyond correctly reported to be inclining and uncoined silver of 916.66 fine. otcetera in America, while on the abated, will, ness, which at the end of the year other hand-assisted by cur return in the near future. A substantial advance of the Nationalist armies. inspectors and the re-establishment is hoped, bear fruit the raising of funds to oppose the towards the re-instatement of the represented the equivalent of to the gold standard-it attracted increase in the export of raw silk. about Standard Oza. 407 millions. to London the floating balances of although at low prices, set off the
Sino-British Relations.
of the legal service. The world's silver production European central and other Banka lasa on cotton goods due to cond! the principal facts to record are, Turning to Sino-British relations, tion for 1927 is put at about which now
The Customs. Standard Oza. 275 millions which figures. Sterling in terms of Unit- with an adverse trade balance abandonment of direct diplomatic to meet in fall its foreign obliga- very large tions in China, and the year closed firstly, the British Government's ao seriously diminished, has sufficed The Customs revenue, although is roughly the same as the revised ed States dollars advanced during lower by 145 million yen than that relations with the Nationalist au- tions as well as the interest charges figures for 1926.
the year from 4.85 to 4.88% and of 1926.
on the first shipment of gold from in December there arrived in Lon-
thorities owing to the latter's re- of the Consolidated Domestic Loans, Small Improvement.
fusal to make reparation for the the shortage of funds which led to the United States since 1920.
After this brief survey of Far outrages at Nanking and failure to a temporary suspension of payment Eastern trade conditions I pass on make good their claim to act up to on the 1896 Anglo-German loan in- 1927 is reflected in the Customs the general situation in our prin- the standards of a civilised govern the early part of the year being no- Revenue returns which show a falcipal field of operations. In the ment; secondly, the debacle of the thing more than a legacy from the of 12 per cent.-from 78 to 6814 political, as in the commercial, Hankow Agreement and the conse time of China's rupture with Ger- millions of Teels--the first serious sphere it is disappointing that the quent deterioration of the ex-Bri-many during the Great War
course of affairs in China during tish concession and paralysis of Bri-having nothing directly to do with Estimates of the importation is the natural, result of civil die the last twelve months shows, such tish trade on the middle Yangtsze. the current state of affairs. to-date knowledge of Far East- of silver into India during the
small improvement and that there
Whatever may be the differences continued integrity of the Maritime en bauking conditions will be of past year place the figure at
agrarian unrest, military oppres-wards a settlement of her domes-ed by the British Government in immunity from the political
is so little progress to record to-of-opinion ca.to the policy announc- Customs service and its relative in addition to which the silver security having combined to place letions. But though poor Mr. Barlow is succeedal by the sold by the Indian Government, figures then given that, compax | Hon. Mr. A. C Hynes as Chier z Ozs. 9,200,000 was deliver every sort of obstruction in the sult, the, year has been unusually clear to all reasonable
in re-Concessions in China, it must be fallen other national service (in- ing 1926 with thirty years ago, Manager of-the Bank. Mr. Hiyansed in India. Allowing for ship- Way of foreign and domestic com-rich in incident. The arrival of that the British Government's re-disastrous effects, must be reckoned Chinese eluding now the Posts) with such the revenue, of the Colony, had is well known to all of you and about Ozs. 13 millions we get the that I can perceive little sign as Hankow Agreement at the begin-more than justified by the conspicu-j.energy, patience and tact of the
ments from Bombay to China of which I have to give and I regret conclusion of the much-debated cession, which would have
It is a depressing picture the British Defence Force and the fusal to reoccupy the Hankow Con-to-China's credit. It implies, nt been multiplied by over eight, appointing him to the impertout Indian consumption for the year yet of that clearing of our horizon ning of the year were followed ous, failure of the Nationalists to members of the staff both foreign the civil population (now mount-i post of Chist Manager your Ozs. .106 millions as against Oz., which we are all so anxious to see.within. a few weeks of our last implement the Chen-O'Malley agree and Chinese. The Nationalist. Gov- been the samo time, a tribute to the. ing toward a million) 'had mord than trebled and there had been a that your interests would be in 113 millions in 1926.- rise of over 100 per cent, in the sound and safe hands, and we all Importations into China were
Satisfactory Record. volume of foreign shipping. The wish Mr. Hynes a long and suc-about Ozs. 98 millions as com- Here in the South we have again which with its lamentable tale of sincerity of British declarations, international treaties in their at- meeting-by the Nanking affair ment, is a striking testimony to the ernment showed scanty respect for figure for this last, namely 27 cessful tenure of his responsible pared with 82 millions in 1926. suffered from the depredations of murder and outrage marked the To resist the widespread and well- tempt last summer. to impose n niillions of tons, excluding junks, position.
pirates, while a series of political culminating point of the fierce founded demands by British sub-heavy increase, of the conventional increased last year by 7 millions
Discount Market, The Year's Profit,
changes at Canton has also had a anti-foreign movement along thejects for action in regard to Han duties without the semblance of re-. to the imposing total of 34 mil-
The discount market in Lou- hampering effect on mercantile en-Yangteze. This led to the evacuatow cannot have been an easy mat- ference to the foreign Governments lions, of which almost exactly of accounts, you will see that the the year and, with the exception trade of this Colony has shown a British subjects from all unpro- who, though having the means at less, apparently recognised the fact Turning, now to the statement don ruled very steady throughout terprise. In spite of this, the tion, as a mensure of safety. of ter for His Majesty's Government concerned. They have, neverthe one-half was British.
net profit for the year, making full provision for all bad when the quotation for 3 m/s the low point reached in the pre- tory, Shanghai was, roeanwhile, expressed intention to use the ganisation of the Chinese Customs after of a few weeks in April and May, steady and healthy recovery from tected areas in Nationalist terri-hand, have strictly abided by their that to sacrifice the magnificent.or and doubtful debts, amounts to Bilis dropped a little below 4 per, vious year, though by no means experiencing a terrorist regime, in troops at Shanghai solely for the to political motives would be fatal ed by British and Chinese co- $14,239,288.14 which operation in normal times, and with. $2,299,065.81 brought for stabilised at 4.5/16 per cent. The or four years ago.
together cent., the rate was more or less equal in volume with that of three stituted and organised by commun- protection of foreign lives and pro- mistake. The position of the Cua nithough the needless and sense- ward from 1926 makes a total of only alteration in the Bank of provement has occurred in piece sence, of the British troons would ence of reciprocity, is still painfully bound to remain a delicate problem A distinctim-ist agents, which but for the pre-party In that city. Although evid-toms Service in a divided. China is less boycotts and the internal $17,638,353.98, or $32,663.74 in England rate was a reduction on goods, though the trade is now almost certainly have ended in the absent, it is impossible to believe and we can only hope that common- strife throughout China may have excess of the corresponding fig- April 21 to 44 per cent. from feeling the effect of increased overrunning of the International that the sacrifices we have made can sense and patriotism, will combine checked the Colony's growth-ures for the preceding twelve the 5 per cent. level at, which it manufacturing costs, and there Settlement with serious loss of life remain without effect on our mutual to prevent any rash and disastrous even given it a temporary set-months. You will, I know, agree had stood since December 8, 1925, has been a noticeable activity in and incalculable damage to pro-relations and, indeed, I am glad to steps which would have the effect back-yet once peace and order with your Directors that the re- Day to day money did not pur- the export of wood oil which, block-perty, tað geta are restored, I feel certain that sult is eminently satisfactory.sue quite the same even course ed on the Yangtaze; la finding, an
After deducting the interim divi- and while the average rate over exit in the South. Taking all into armies continued during the spring visibly and considerably lessened.
say that the anti-forelyn, and par of ruining the machinery.. dend of £3 paid in August last the whole year was a little under account, Hong Kong's record for and brought the Naticnalisis: an With the decline of communiat in- The advance of the Southern ticularly anti-British, agitation has) (viz.: £480.000 at: 2s. $4,800,- 4 per cent. there were frequent the year is not unsatisfactory and far as the Yellow River. In May fluence, we may hope for still fur of the Peking Government certain
́ ́An Obvious Lesson. 000) and $50,000 remuneration to variations in the daily rate be there are fair indications that the the situation was so precarious ther improvement.
Arising out of the pressing needs Directors, the balance remaining tween 3.1/2 per cent. and 5 per improvement is likely to continue that Japan found it necessary to for distribution is $12,788,353.98 cent. owing to
attempts at interference with the which we recommend being dealt changes from a plethora to a British boycott has died down ex- in the interior of Shantung. Pe-
the constant In the Yangtaze Valley the anti-send, troops to protect her nationals Military Exploitation.
administration were made early in with as follows:-
stringency in the floating supply cept at isolated paints, but the king was already threatened when realise that they cannot expect a Francis Aglen, who as Inspector The Chinese should, however, the regrettable departure of Bir the year. One of these led up to 4 final dividend of £3 per of credit.
benefit of this has been counterbala breach in the Nationalist party continuance of such magnanimity General has share plus a bonus of £2 per The total amount of Treasury, anced by the hindrance to transpor paralysed their military movements unless they respond in a similar such conspicuous devotion and abil snare (subject to deduction of Bills outstanding was at its high- tation arising from war and brig- and put a stop to further progress. spirit, Income Tax) amounting to est in January at £675 million. andage, and by the crippling effect Since then the tide of war between wards the conviction that forbear predecessor Sir Robert Hart, His Nor must they drift to ity since the retirement of his great 2800,000 at exchange
of The figure fell to £568 million in of depreciated currency. To illus North and South has ebbed and ance on the part of the foreign curt treatment by the Government 2/-3/8, $7,876,923.08.
April but at the end of the year trate the extent of the former of flowed but the Yellow River has Powers means a short cut, through who, employed him provoked much Transfer to Silver Reserve had increased to £661 million, these evils, I may instance the rise remained the highwatermark of the outrages and the violation of indignation as a regrettable display Fund, $500,000.00.
With a diminished supply of mer-, in the
cost of freight between Nationalist thrust Write off Bank Premises Ac- cantile paper Treasury Bills play Shanghat and the province of Ho The re-emergence of Marshal Feng tus. We may hope, too, that His ingratitude towards
Northward, treaties, to equal international ste- a very important part in the man which has reached as much as Yu-hsiang in the autumn, support Majesty's Government, while firm In London discount market but it is nine times the normal figure, while ed by the Shanai forces, placed the policy of helping onwards all The annual Customs figures are
public servant. the mercantile bills, representing in regard to the latter I need only Peking again in danger this time constructive reform in the country. make the London market the compulsory use of currency notes military allies, though they sue to be mistaken for mera weakness curve of many years past will give as they do actual trade, which refer to the embargo on silver and from the West-and the Northern will not suffer honest friendliness, den drop from the steadily rising the recognised barometer of China's commercial progress and, the and- Clearing House for the finance of at a heavy market discount. cessfully repulsed the attack, find of purpose but will strictly abide serious thought to many thousands international trade and it is to be In the north the situation has themselves at the end of the year by their dictum..that concessiona A comparison of the balance regretted that financing by means been less acute, military interfer-in control of a much reduced ter- and treaty adjustment can result in China.,, We must hope that the would receive the whole-hearted shows a decrease in total assets any definite maturity date, is within relativoly narrower bounds; thirds of China now flies the Na-mént and, are not to be wrung from South, but will stimulate a deter-· throughout the country. and she sheet figures for 1926 and 1927 of loans and overdrafts, without ence, though nevere, having been ritory. At a rough estimate two-only from fair and amicable agreeChinese,both in the North-and the..... co-operation of all foreigners in of $62 millions. The decrease oc- established and admirable sys-heavily handicapped by irregular
to some extent replacing the old- but there too merchants have been tionalist flag. China, as well as that of their curs principally under the head-tem of bills being drawn under taxation and the disorganisation of Governments, in bringing about ings of Cash and Bills Receiv such conditions as would make able, there being an
Bankers' credits. Av. offset in China one of the most prosper. Securities which stand 24 millions True Index of Trade. ous countries in the world.
higher than in the previous year. The control exercised by the Business throughout the country more than outweighed by the ruin in North and South, continues to ing the people of China of the pros- Management Change,
Reference to the Liabilities side Bank of England over the London has thus necessarily been of aqua cleavage in its ranks. The play havoc with the security for perity which could re easily. will reveal a corresponding drop discount market during 1927 is no hand-to-mouth nature, but an en-solidarity which marked the initial China's foreign loans. in Deposits which, taken in all, doubt justified by the necessity of couraging feature is the rapid im- advance from Canton has been re- Interference with administration change which has taken place in are less by just upon 60 millions. placing
It will interest you to know that weakening of the Bank's gold place as soon as local conditions threaten to wreck the party and reduced nearly all the Chinese Govitiis that the great middle classes, a guard against any provement which everywhere takes placed by dissensions which and sequestration of revenue has the most crying need of the country. Bank since we last met.
the fall in Deposits is traceable al position, in view, especially, of the become in the least tolerable. render impossible most entirely to the diminished possibility of the Treasury note With the exception of silk which tionalist government.
a united Na-ernment railways to a state of par- together, with the Nalonalist cle balances held with us at the end isque being taken over by the has had to contend with a very mintang (the party on which the foep.services and other obligations, which, exists, all, oven China Irres The Kuo- tial or complete default on their ment in the true sense of the word leave in September last, desired of the year by other banks. This Bank in the near future. It is depressed. market, to retire from the East and your is partly owing to the fact that in probably a temporary expedient been surprisingly good, thanks and the theoretical source of its ever. is the deterioration of the develop a united and practical op exports have Nationalist Government is based An even more serious matter, how pective of party and clique, should Directors accepted his resigna 1928 China New Year when the and there is, certainly, good rea largely to the dogged pertinacity power) first split into two, with railways themselves, which goes far position to the rapacions military tion with very much regret. Mr. demand for cash reaches its maxi- son to hope so for it is unques of the native merchants who have rival Governments established at to destroy the hope, so long cherish- tyranny which is holding China in Barlow during his thirty-six mum point-fell at an exception- tionable that to retain its pre- found ways and means of getting Nanking and Hankow, and now ed by the holders of railway loan bondage but which years' service on the Eastern ally early date in our own calen-mier position as the centre for cargo down to the treaty ports in tends to dissolve into a number of bends, that with a return to normal allen to the native spirit of the staff did very valuable work for dar. There was also, especially international trade, the London the face of the greatest obstacles separate factions,
is so utterly the Bank. The three years of his in Malaya, a great improvement discount market must be a free and have, one is glad to add, found end of another twelve months so recover their earning power and in fuel poflunt bob daha deanam
Thus at the conditions the railways would; soon country, we sha tenure of the Chief Managership in trade towards the end of 1927 one so as to attract an ample supremunerative prices on the whole für from unification being nearer clear, off those accumulated, debts. Thanks t were troublesome and arduous and more or less idle funds de-ply of mercantile bills. Such bills to compensate them for the risk in sight, the political map of China It is well known, that the mainten iz Before closing should like om
to Staff Kera ones and the thanks of all share posited with the Bank found act- are the true index of trade besides and expense.. A good harvest in shows more divisions and sub-divi- ance in a state of efficiency on your behalf, to express our appre¬A holders are due to Mr. Barlowive employment. Another reason affording the simplest possible in-central China and a steady level of sions than ever. for the able manner in which he for, the decrease in the dollar strument for conducted the affairs of the Ogures is that the Assets and volume of credit. The measures
regulating the exchange have been helpful factors.
railway necessitates the current exitiation to the Staff for the work Communism is the rock on which penditure of a considerable portion they have done during the last year is Bank and, looked after their in- Liabilities of Branches operating adopted have met with success,
Nationalism has split.. Fostered of the earned revenuerfon the up which has been one full of difficulny terests. The results accom- in gold currencies have been cal-as instanced by the upward move again been accompanied by some-lat movement spread over, Nation Ing, stock, and a hundred and, one of decision of your Directors In India a good monsoon has by Bolshevist agents, the commun- keep of the permanent way and roll, and feel sure you will approval plished during that period speak culated on the basis of exchange ment in the London-New York ex- what disappointing trade condialist China and plunged both cities other essentials; but the Chinese toward them a bonus of 10% for themselves and are evidence at 2/-3/8 as compared with change, but it will be a relief tions. Imports have been general and country-side into all the military and civil authorities into their queries. of his acapable....handling of 1/111⁄2
when the situation permits of the ly dull, while the export trade in miseries and horrors of embitter whose hands the control of railways (Continued on Page 12.)
His Excellency showed on that occasion what enn be accomplish-
its vitality will be abundantly de-
monstrated in renewed prosper-
ity and progress and that Hong
Kong, acting in mutual co-opera-
tion with her great neighbour. will show an increasingly fine re- cord in the years to come. China's Possibilities. Perhaps it is not out of place
to quote a remark made by the late Dr. Sun Yat-sen in an address to the students of the University
of Hong Kong in 1923. Dr. Sun: said he wondered how "English- "men could do such things as "they had done, for example, "with the barren rock of Hong "Kong within seventy or eighty "years, while China in four thou- "sand years had no place like "Hong Kong." It is unnecessary to point out that, with an admin- istration of law and order, and consideration for her industrious population, China could accom- plish equally wonderful changes
Secondly I have to refer to the
the Chief Managerahip of the
As you know, Mr. A. H. Barlow,
at the end of his six months
count, $1,000,000.00.
And carry forward to the new account, $3,411,430.90.
Total $12,788,353.98.
Our investments show a very satisfactory margin on current
market prices.
transport.....
-Hand to Mouth.
In India.
+
aerved China with
Д Joyri
obvious lesson, will not be lost on
Great Britain by lawlessness, and mination to reach some kind of force.
Superficial Expansion. The superficial expansion of the The military exploitation of the are keeping militariem rampont agreement on the disputes which Nationalist movement is, however, country, which now equally prevails throughout the country and depriv
2
be with-
in their reach.
If I may venture an opinion as to
י