114
It will be seen from these tables that the intercensal estimates of population for the first decade 1911-1921 were probably as accurate as such estimates could be. The Census Officer, in his report on the 1921 Census, estimated that his recorded figures were less than the normal population at that time by about 30,000 persons for reasons that he gave. The figure of 655,000 thus obtained closely approximated the estimate of the previous year of 648,150. The Census Officer added "But at no time were there any grounds for holding the opinion that the population was in the neighbourhood of one million, as was at one time alleged.'
During the second decade 1921-1931 the estimates of population, com- mencing with 1924, began to increase rapidly. With the exception of the year 1926 when, on account of the 1925 strike and boycott, no change was made in the estimate, the annual estimated increase was 95,000 and over (103,000 in 1927). An increase of 100,000 persons to the area occupied and expanding in Hong Kong and Kowloon is an enormous increase and it is difficult to find any justification for these estimates.
In the year 1924 the opinion, which is still held by some, that the population of Hong Kong is about a million, received reinforcement. On March 1, 1924, a report of a Committee on a subject which is not of material interest here, was submitted to Government and contained the following paragraph :—
"These figures are based upon an estimated average population of 650,000. It is notorious that the Hong Kong census figures are much below the actual figures of population, for reasons which it is unnecessary to examine here. The Committee has information regarding the actual population to the follow- ing effect:
The bulk of the Colony's nightsoil is carried away by a Contractor for purposes of manure for mulberry growing. The successful bidder for the present contract, dating from 1921, worked upon the census figure of 680,000 persons, and allowed for taels 3 in weight of nightsoil per head per day, or a total of some 1,275 piculs. He reduced this figure to 1,100 piculs because of wastage through water closets and boat population, and he tendered accord- ingly. The amount of nightsoil now being collected approximates to 2,500 piculs or nearly four million taels, which, at taels 3 per head, gives a popu- lation of over 1,300,000, without allowing for wastage. The figure arrived at through this somewhat unusual method of census taking is probably very much nearer the mark than the official figure..
This Report was not published, but the opinion expressed regarding the popu- lation of Hong Kong received wide publicity and was strongly held by many persons, both official and unofficial. The opinion has persisted and it seems desirable, there- fore, to examine the basis on which it rests though the subject is somewhat unusual for a Census Report.
The Contractor was quite justified in taking, if he wished, the figure of 3 taels (i.e. 4 ounces) per head per day when tendering for the contract, although it is a conservative figure, very conservative when it is noted that the staple food of the people concerned is rice which leaves a bulky and heavy residue. But the Committee was not justified in using that conservative figure as a divisor when dealing with the actual amount of nightsoil collected and trying from that to estimate the population; the figure to be used for such a calculation should have been chosen to err, if at all, in the other direction. That the Contractor's figure per head was conservative is shown by the following considerations. In the Conservancy Con- tract there is a clause which entitles the Contractor to claim a reduction in the fee which he has hitherto paid to Government in the event of the Government opening a new public flush latrine. It is a matter of considerable importance, therefore, to the Head of the Sanitary Department to be able to calculate what such reduc- tion of fee should be. The usual practice has been to keep a watch on the new latrine, find out by how many people it is patronised and then calculate the loss sustained by the Contractor. For some time it has been customary to calculate on the basis of 8 ounces of excreta per head per day. This seems to be nearer the correct figure as in a book entitled "Sanitation in War" by Lt. Colonel P. S. Lelean, it is stated that each person contributes to the latrine bucket 44 oz. of faeces and 5 oz. of "defaecation urine" which is not separable from faeces or a total of 9 oz.