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The problem in China.
The two essential problems.
() Restric- tion of
I have I trust shewn that, so far from having done nothing to assist China, Hongkong is perhaps the only place (until the recent action of India) which has consistently and effectively afforded assistance.
The sincerity and honesty of purpose of the Central Government and of many of the Viceroys of the eighteen great provinces of China is admitted, but the difficulties, Financial, Industrial, and Executive-which confront the Provincial Administrations are very great. In dealing therefore with a matter which affects great industrial interests in British India, and the Native States, and the revenues and trade of the Eastern Colonies, it is imperative in justice to those whose industry and trade are affected to proceed gradually and tentatively, and not too far in advance of the steps taken by China, so that the interests of our own nationals may not be sacrificed without corresponding visible and tangible results. in China, and we may assure ourselves alike of the permanency of the movement, and of the ability of the Central Government to carry it through in an Empire with so little cohesion as China.
The two really essential problems, which in my view China has to solve if she intends to carry out her declared intention are :-
(a.) The restriction and ultimate abolition of the cultivation of the
Poppy in China.‡
(6.) The provision of a revenue to replace that now raised on opium. When these two problems are in a fair way of solution it may justly be said that China has set a Standard which is worthy of emulation, and has proved herself to be in earnest.
As regards restriction of cultivation. The fact must not be lost sight of that reduction of the total quantity of opium consumed in China--estimated at 22,588 tons in 1906-ths is grown in China itself § chiefly in the Province of Szechuan (66% of the total) which is one of the most densely populated of the provinces of China (45 millions) || into which no foreign opium is imported, and in which as Mr. Clementi** has shewn, the percentage of smokers is more than double that in the rest of the Empire. Out of her enormous production China in fact (as I have shewn) exports opium to Indo-China and I believe to Siam, where the consumption shews no decrease † though the King in a manifesto on his birthday declared his desire to restrict it. This is irrespective of the amount illicitly exported which is probably considerable. In Szechuan and Yunnan the cultiva- tion of opium is a great agricultural industry, and its arbitrary abolition would inflict a great injury on the population. In this connection it is of interest to note that Mr. Clementi shews in his translation of the Article on the Poppy from the Chinese Encyclopædia that the plant was known and cultivated in China for medicinal purposes as early as the beginning of the 9th Century, and that the use of opium was probably introduced by the Arabs as early as the middle of the 15th Century.
How gauge Restriction in China.
Relative to the restriction of cultivation the point naturally arises How is India at the end of the trial period of three years to ascertain whether China has fulfilled her part of the contract and has made a corresponding reduction in the internal produc- tion? Since there is no proper survey, and no accurate record of the area under poppy cultivation, and China refuses the assistance of foreign surveyors, it is clear that existing statistics are very nebulous and no exact demonstration of decrease can be expected. The only rough and ready method therefore of gauging whether China has proportionately decreased cultivation during the three trial years, is to judge by the current price of Native Opium in China. If it rises considerably as it must do with a decrease of cultivation, it will be fair to assume that the alleged reduction has really taken place,-allowance being made at the same time for a fall in prices due to decrease of smokers, and decrease of illicit export (which with a rise in price of Native Opium becomes less profitable). I I lay stress on the
The Memorial of the Tartar-General of Ninghsia (Official Gazette 17.12.08) frankly admits that Chinese statements regarding the decrease of the habit are untrue. Troops and officials can be made to desist, but the only remedy he says for the populace is to cease cultivation.
* China No. 1 (1908) p. 33.
§ Sir J. Jordan 27.11.07. China No. 1 (1908).
Sir A. Hosie's estimate-by far the lowest-Sir J. Jordan 27.11.07. China No. 1 (1908).
** Calculation dated 12.6.08.
¶535,067 lbs. in 1906. [Mr. Leech's report,-Sir J. Jordan 27.11.07. China No. 1 (1903).] 200,437 lbs.
in 1907. [Mr. Hardouin's report to Governor-General, Indo-China.]
† F. O. Annual Series 3999/07. p. 6.
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