12
REVIEW
median age at 29 is lower. Japan's is 39. Given that there is an in-built drive in the Hong Kong worker to improve his skills the relatively young age of our work force is an undoubted asset for the future.
Projection of our population trend that shows the proportion of working-age people will stabilise in the next five years, but will drop slightly by 1991. As a result there will be a slight increase in the dependency ratio, which nevertheless will still remain well below previous. levels. The present ratio of 457 per 1 000 people is expected to reach 480 by 1991. There will also be a moderate growth in the proportion of old people from 6.6 per cent in 1981 to 8.6 in 1991. This will affect social welfare and medical services for the old. But this subject has already stirred the public conscience and our government has responded with a 10 per cent growth per year in public facilities for the old. Though, surely, in part the solution is to let granny and grandpa mind the kids, which they love to do. Who could then say the old were economically inactive?
Males verses Females
Sex composition, according to the 1981 Census, shows we have 1 093 males to every 1 000 females. The sex ratio in 1971 was 1 033 males and in 1976 1 046 males per 1 000 females. The increases in the proportions of males over females is a result of the large influx of illegal immigrants who were predominantly young and male. The effect is particularly marked in the age group 20-34 where the ratio of males to females rose from 1053 to 1 155, triple the same cohort in 1971 and twice that in 1976.
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An analysis of the marital status of the population reveals that 483 817 males and 284 768 females in the marriageable age bracket 20-34 have never married. This represents a surplus of almost 200 000 males over females or 41 per cent of males. The imbalance, partly due to illegal immigration, presents Hong Kong with a social dilemma. The government must hope at least to keep legal immigration from China at the present daily average of 150 people so that the situation doesn't get worse - but hopefully to reduce that level. But that will not provide wives for the surfeit of young men unless China sends, in the current 150-a-day level, the girl friends left behind. Whether or not that will happen is anybody's guess. Current legal arrivals are generally balanced in sex composition and usually are a bit higher in quality, mainly because, to get a single-journey permit in China, applicants have to fill in forms and be able to articulate their case.
The imbalance could pose problems for the Royal Hong Kong Police Force of 22 000 men, that already has so much to do at the border. Working with the Armed Forces it has reduced the illegal arrival evasion ratio from '1:1 to 1:0.6. Črime generally in Hong Kong compares favourably with most countries. But 60 per cent of all armed robberies are being committed by illegal immigrants who doubtless see crime as a quick way to material self-betterment. Doubtless, some illegals are no more than criminals from China seeking better pastures and who will go to prison in China when caught and sent back. There may be as many as 4 500 constituting a 'submerged society' without legal right to remain in Hong Kong. The question now is: will there be another unmarried group to get into mischief because they will not be able to find girl friends to keep them occupied in their leisure hours?
But basically the predominance of males in the 20-34 age group is a characteristic that should strengthen the quality of Hong Kong's work force. The larger influx of male immigrants over female immigrants has made a significant contribution to the growth of the labour force. While males aged 20-34 have a labour force participation rate of 95.4 per cent the corresponding rate for females is but 66.1 per cent. Thus the sex imbalance has