REVIEW
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evidence the annual calculations of mid-year population ignored this potential factor and based themselves solely on registered births, registered deaths and the balance of recorded immigration over recorded emigration: hoping that when the census had been taken the difference between the census figure and the estimate would give an idea of the magnitude of unrecorded (or 'illegal') immigration. However the final census figure differed by so little from the estimate that the only possible conclusions are either that there has not been a very great amount of unrecorded im- migration or that it has been offset by other unknown factors; and the pattern of migration deduced from the length of residence table shows that over the last six years the net annual balance of all immigration averaged 60,000. Furthermore so great is the total volume of movement in and out (1,275,500 recorded in and 1,290,700 recorded out during the twelve months ending March 1961) that any net balance of recorded migrants may conceal a much greater net balance of immigrants between certain ages offset by a net balance of emigrants of other ages. Until more is known about these details there will be some uncertainty in any calcula- tions of basic demographic factors such as fertility, mortality and expectation of life. But there are grounds for thinking that the Colony has three years in which to prepare for the explosive in- crease that is certainly coming.
It will be seen that the facts of Hong Kong's population thus far revealed, afford some grounds for re-assurance-not for com- placency. The task of bringing literacy to the boat people could itself write a whole heart-searching chapter; and the Box-and-Cox families show that in the field of housing much ground has still to be made up. But progress has been made-there are some plums in the cake. Hong Kong now has not so much a problem of people as a people with problems.
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And what of the future? If as now seems likely the present rate of natural increase and the present rate of immigration both continue without substantial change until 1965, the mid-year population of that year will be approximately 3,790,000, but then the present 14 and 15 year olds will be young parents and a sharp increase in the birth rate is foreseeable, which might give the Colony a population of 3,950,000 in 1966. On the other hand