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itself be an intensely controversial and question-begging decision. If the elections were held on the basis of no increase in directly-elected seats, then maintenance or increase in Liberal support would be seen as a repudiation of our policy. A big swing away from the Liberals would vindicate the policy, but would be taken internationally as confirming a retreat from democracy. Advancing the LegCo elections to, say, 1993, would also condemn Hong Kong to a further round of elections in 1997. That would add extra uncertainty in an unsettling year, and is I think best avoided.
8. Gauging Hong Kong opinion on constitutional issues has always been a dilemma, and I have no magic solution to offer. The 1984 survey of opinion on the draft Joint Declaration and the 1984/85 and 1987/88 Green Paper/White Paper exercises on Representative Government were not very satisfactory or convincing internationally. In the end, the best way of selling the result will probably be to have a LegCo debate which is likely (not certain) to produce the right answer, even if the directly-elected members vote against, and also to ensure that other voices eg from the business community speak up in support. The only other possibility I can think of would be the creation of some kind of Governor's Constitutional Council, perhaps drawing in all the elected members from the three tiers of Councils. But that would look very obviously like an end run around LegCo.
Pichett
PF Ricketts
JIFABR
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