G.F. 326
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14
27.
growth,
Thus 1982 will be a year with slower rates of
lower inflation and still high levels of
employment. A real growth rate of 4% for the Hong Kong
low by historical
economy as a whole is
standards,
but
good in
economies in the present world recession.
relation to the performance of most other
If in fact the
will have done
4% growth rate is achieved, our economy
better than in the last recession in 1974-75, when we
recorded a growth rate of only 2% for two years running.
28.
As to Hong Kong's longer term prospects, the
indications are that the world economy may begin to
improve slowly but steadily in 1983. Interest
rates in
recent months have come down
down substantially, and it seems
probable that the nadir in the world
in the world recession has been
reached. The possibility must, however, exist in the
world as a whole of further major financial shocks arising
unpredictably from banking, political or military events.
All we in Hong Kong can do is guard our reserves, stay
nimble on our feet, and continue to guide our affairs with
prudence. With a relatively deflated internal cost/price
structure and some spare capacity, Hong Kong is well
placed to benefit from a revival in export demand as our
major trading partners start to climb out of the present
recession. 1982 is proving to be a difficult year, and it
would be imprudent to be too optimistic about 1983.
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