نقدر
ento sye
first one of these I've seen. I are pans 11 × 12
Mr Bytom fl. Dow
"Does to Elyt inshally see these?
Mr Hoare (HKGD, WH312)
12.412
Reference
fto, please put up a fre
Hii 070/2
3112
12
HONG KONG: THIRD QUARTER ECONOMIC REPORT 1982
1. All of the important trends noted in the first two reports of this year have continued. The main problem arises from the unexpected length and depth of recession in Hong Kong's 'traditional export markets. Some comfort is drawn from the fact that recent increases in real wages have not continued, and that with reductions in the rate of increase in other production costs, the export sector is well placed to benefit from any recovery.
Trade
sed(A)
2. For the first nine months as a whole (compared with the same period in 1981) domestic exports fell by 3% in real terms. Falls in volume have become more rapid though, with Q1less in real terms than the corresponding period in 1981, but Q3's 5% lower. While the Territory's domestic exports to developed markets stagnate or decline, domestic exports to China continue to grow in real terms (precise figures are not available until a unit value index has been constructed). It is not possible to say yet whether this represents a permanent shift in trading patterns, or whether the rate of increase of domestic exports to China is likely to have been the same without recession in other markets.
3.
Retained imports of raw materials, semi-manufactures and capital goods (as inputs to production usually indicating actual and expected changes in orders) continue to fall in real terms. This is consistent with some results of the July Quarterly Business Survey which noted an expected fall in orders, and spare capacity in some sectors of manufacturing industry.
Real GDP growth for 1982
4.
The budget forecast of 8% growth, lowered in July to 6%, has been further revised to 4%. In view of the decline in export volume even taking into account the increase in consumption demand noted - this seems somewhat optimistic.
The financial sector
5.
February's removal of the withholding tax from foreign currency bank and DTC deposits still seems to be influencing the money supply figures. In the year ending September 1982, the total for M3 (the widest definition of the money supply) increased by 42.4% but the increase in HK$ M3 was only 6.3%. This may simply be the effect of shifts toward foreign currency deposits as a result of changes in the tax regime, but may also represent concern about the value of the HK$.
6. The external value of the HK$ has fallen against the US$, from HK$ 5.913 = US$ 1 at the end of June to HK$ 6.695 = US$ 1 at the end of November (a depreciation of about 13%). The wider trade-weighted index has fallen over this period from 89.7 to around 80.0 (a depreciation of about 12%). That this has occurred while the visible trade deficit has narrowed somewhat may be partly explained by
lack of confidence in the Territory's future Depreciation is not an unmitigated evil; it may improve the competitiveness and profitability of exports.
O
CODE 18-77
17. The
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