within a couple of months.
7. Clause 7 of the amended Bill, which, (as New Clause 74) was conceded by the Government during the Committee Stage, requires a resolution (ie a positive vote) on a motion on the Social Protocol in both Houses of Parliament after the Bill receives Royal Assent (ie is signed by HM The Queen, at which time the Bill becomes an Act). The Act cannot come into force, and the government cannot therefore ratify the Treaty, until such resolutions are passed. The Government is still considering what motion to put forward, but the Opposition have indicated that, whatever the motion, they will seek to amend it to say that the UK should not ratify the Treaty until the Government has "subscribed to" the Social Agreement: (this could, presumably, take the form of a statement of intent to seek revision of the Treaty, after ratification, to abandon the social opt-out).
Now that the Bill has received its Third Reading in the Commons, it will go to the House of Lords, where procedures are similar to those in the Commons. Passage of the Bill should be easier, despite some high profile opposition from the likes of Lord Tebbit and Baroness Thatcher. If, as is expected, the Bill is not amended in the Lords, it will go forward to receive Royal Assent. If it were amended, it would have to return to the Commons which could be expected to reverse any inconsistent amendment. The Government hopes that it will be possible to proceed to Royal Assent before the
summer recess.
9.
On present thinking, the strong likelihood is that the Government will wish to bring forward a motion to satisfy the requirements of Clause 7 (see para 9 above) as soon as Royal Assent is obtained. The preferred option and target is therefore completion of all pre-ratification processes by the end of July. But no firm decision on how to handle this final parliamentary stage has yet been taken.
10. Nine member states have already ratified the Treaty. The Danes voted in favour of the Treaty in a referendum on 18 May by 56.8 per cent to 43.2 per cent and should ratify shortly. Germany has completed its parliamentary ratification process, but cannot formally ratify until the Constitutional Court has ruled on several cases brought before it.
PWILgopher