CONFIDENTIAL
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HROUGH "RAIN' BUT ALSO LEASES, FRANCHISES AND CONTRACTS AND OTHER POST-1997 BUSINESS ARRANGEMENTS. THERE IS A CESIRE FOR THE SORT OF OUTCOME TO TALKS WHICH WOULD ALLOW PEKING TO ENDORSE THE 1995 LEGCO. BUT THERE IS ALSO AN APPREHENSION THAT, ULTIMATELY, THE CPG WILL PREVAIL IN THE TALKS NOW UNDER WAY IN PEKING (AS THEY ARE WIDELY PERCEIVED TO HAVE DONE IN NEGOTIATIONS OVER THE JOINT DECLARATION (1982-84) AND THE 1991 MEMORANDUM OF
UNDERSTANDING).
5. EVEN THOUGH THE CONFIDENTIAL NATURE OF THE TALKS IN PEKING HAS PREVENTED HKG FROM TAKING INTO ITS CONFIDENCE EITHER THE PUBLIC OR EVEN THE LEADING MEMBERS OF LEGCO, THE COMMUNITY HAS BEEN CAUTIOUSLY HOPEFUL ABOUT THEIR PROSPECTS. HENCE, A WIDELY- PUBLISHED POLL REPORTED ON 30 APRIL THAT 63 PER CENT OF RESPONDENTS WERE ''OPTIMISTIC'' ABOUT THEIR OUTCOME, ALTHOUGH ONLY A THIRD BELIEVED THAT THE COMMUNITY'S ''WISHES WOULD BE TAKEN CARE OF'' IN ANY FINAL AGREEMENT.
6. IN PRACTICE THE COMMUNITY WOULD BE HIGHLY NERVOUS ABOUT IMPOSING CONDITIONS (E.G., DEADLINES) THAT RESULTED IN THE CPG BREAKING OFF NEGOTIATIONS. BUT IT STILL DOES NOT BELIEVE IN PEACE AT ANY PRICE. FOR EXAMPLE, A SUNDAY MORNING POST POLL PUBLISHED ON 25 APRIL REPORTED THAT 53 PER CENT OF RESPONDENTS WANTED LEGCO TO START THE LEGISLATIVE PROCESS FOR THE CONSTITUTIONAL PACKAGE UNILATERALLY IF THE NEGOTIATIONS FAILED TO MAKE PROGRESS DURING
MAY.
THE TALKS: BOTTOM LINE IN DOUBT
7. THE COMMUNITY HAS BEEN QUICK TO GRASP THE VITAL IMPORTANCE THAT THE NEGOTIATIONS SHOULD RESULT IN A THROUGH TRAIN' FOR THE 1995 LEGCO. POLLS PUBLISHED IN APRIL SHOWED SUPPORT FOR THIS PROPOSAL RUNNING BETWEEN 60 PER CENT AND OVER 70 PER CENT. BY CONTRAST, THE CPG'S EFFORTS TO PROMOTE A SHADOW ADMINISTRATION (ITS 'SECOND STOVE'') HAS WON LITTLE SUPPORT (19 PER CENT OF RESPONDENTS IN AN 8 APRIL HONG KONG ECONOMIC TIMES POLL).
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8. LESS CLEAR IS WHAT THE COMMUNITY REGARDS AS THE MAXIMUM PRICE IT WILL PAY FOR THE ''THROUGH TRAIN''. WHENEVER THE COMMUNITY (AND LEGCO) ARE ALLOWED THEIR FREE VOICE, THEY SUPPORT THE CONSTITUTIONAL PACKAGE AND ITS CONSTITUENT ELEMENTS. (FOR EXAMPLE, A HONG KONG STANDARD POLL REPORTED ON 12 APRIL THAT 78 PER CENT OF RESPONDENTS PREFERRED GREATER DEMOCRACY NOW EVEN AT THE RISK OF FUTURE PROSPERITY.) THERE WAS A SHIFT, NEVERTHELESS,
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