China Internal / Political
5.
At the 8th National People's Congress in March 1993, Party General-Secretary Jiang Zemin became President; Premier Li Peng was given a second five-year term; and Vice-Premier Zhu Rongji was given overall command of the economy. These appointments appear to have been Deng Xiaoping's attempt to create a Jiang-Li-Zhu triumvirate to ensure a stable transition following his death, but there is widespread and growing doubt about the long-term viability of the current leadership. Jiang Zemin's position is considered to lack widespread support. Li Peng has not still not resumed his full duties following heart trouble in April, although this may be because he does not wish to associate himself with the measures Zhu Rongji is taking to control the economy.
China Internal / Economic
6.
Chinese GNP grew 7% in 1991 and, under the stimulus of Deng Xiaoping's accelerated reforms, 12.8% in 1992. Industrial output improved all round, although the major state-owned enterprises continue to be out-performed by collective, individual and foreign-funded enterprises. Approximately 50% of the Chinese economy is now reckoned to be outside the state sector. Predicted growth for 1993 is 13%.
7. The speed and success of the reform programme has led to over-rapid growth and a revival of inflation and overheating, last seen as a serious problem in 1988. Vice-Premier Zhu Rongji has instituted a 16 Point Plan with aim of reining in an economy which many see as out of control. He has also dismissed the Governor of the People's Bank of China and taken temporary control himself. The consensus among economists, including the World Bank, is that the plan is well-targeted and that there is still the chance of a "soft landing". The World Bank predicts average growth of 7-8% until the year 2000. Since 1978 the average has been 8-9%.
Sino-US Relations
8.
Sino-US relations have recently been through a troubled patch with the US imposing limited sanctions on the export of high technology to China following Chinese sales of M-11 missile technology to Pakistan; the Yin He incident, when the US insisted on searching a Chinese ship they claimed was carrying chemical weapons precursors to Iran; and Congress's public opposition to China's bid for the Olympic Games.
9. The US has now embarked upon a new initiative and is attempting to revive the relationship through a series of high
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