MILD) 021/2
CONFIDENTIAL
RE: E
2 5 NOV 1993
pa
16 November 1993
H LI Davies Esq
British Senior Representative
JLG
HONG KONG
Int Sep/Us
Foreign & Commonwealth
Office
London SWIA 2AH
Telephone: 071-270-2951
for ticketts of
Mr Barrett,
19/4
Dear Hugh
US/CHINA RELATIONS
Mytree
Can I see
please?
19/4.
vej
Mr Whitley in Mas BJ
fw 52
Mr Woodrow
J
1. Thank you for your letter of 11 November about_US/China relations. One of the points which emerged particularly clearly from the day in Chevening was just how central US policy is in determining the overall Western relationship with China. Winston Lord's comments on the possibility of a downward spiral brought home how damaging that would be to the interests of other participants. In particular, since the Chinese leadership appear to think of the UK as following a general US lead in our China policy, a break-down between the US and China would be likely to contribute to a generally harder Chinese line towards the UK too.
2. I have had the same impression that Chinese officials are talking up the prospects. I agree too that the future direction of US policy is not yet clear. Much will depend on whether the Chinese respond with moves of substance. So far the atmosphere is certainly better, the Americans have been able to put across their concerns directly in Peking, there may be some movement on Red Cross visits to prisons - but there is not much more to point to. If the Chinese do not make more substantive concessions, the MFN deadlines will loom larger, and the present approach may become difficult to sustain.
If they do, the Americans may well relish the opportunity to get off the MFN hook. We would welcome more reporting on these issues, particularly after the Clinton/Jiang meeting.
You's ever, Ginham
Graham Fry
Far Eastern Department
CC:
Mr Meyer, Washington
Mr McLean, Peking
Mr Dinham, GH, Hong Kong Mr Peirce, PA, Hong Kong Mr Ricketts, HKD
by fax
fed16/NOVEMBER/SAWAAM
CONFIDENTIAL