CONFIDENTIAL
He will take a more proactive line in commercial relations, articularly where the US appears to be disadvantaged. His hoice of Trade Representative is a personal friend without trade experience. He has said that he wants the Commerce post to be strengthened.
Clinton has said that he wants to concentrate on economic issues. His first nominations were for key economic positions. At the Economic Conference in Little Rock in December, Clinton's economic team sought to lower public expectations for the first 100 days and to reassure financial markets.
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But the deficit poses a fiscal and political dilemma that Clinton cannot dodge; he cannot claim to have in place an effective economic programme until he controls the deficit. failed to produce the economic plan he promised for Inauguration Day. It is now to be announced in February. He has admitted that his promised halving of the budget deficit in 4 years was unrealistic, that his plan to spend an extra $20 billion on infrastructure cannot be implemented and that he might need to reconsider his promise not to raise petrol taxes. Again, a compromise will probably be the solution with a small short term stimulus to the economy - probably investment-tax credits, tax increases for the richer and on major energy users. He may still wish to impose heavier taxes on foreign companies. He will also look for cuts in healthcare costs. None of this will cut the deficit very much or very rapidly.
The predominance of establishment-oriented and Washington veterans on the economic and national security teams is attributed by Clinton aides to his desire to secure quick congressional passage of domestic programmes and his hope to enlist bipartisan support for his foreign and defence policies.
The Appointees
In
Secretary of State Warren Christopher was a highly competent Deputy Secretary of State in the Carter Administration. He is safe, not known for foreign policy initiatives. At his confirmation hearings he restated foreign policy objectives set out during the campaign (strong solidarity with Bush Administration on Iraq; need to increase pressure on Serbs; maintain US commitment to NATO; crucial help to Russsia). the past Christopher has been a forceful advocate of human rights but is better known for his negotiating skills than for his willingness to use force. He is highly competent, but will execute White House policy rather than originate policy himself. The choice of Clifton Wharton, a former university administrator and pension fund manager, as Christopher's deputy underscores the connection between domestic and foreign policy (Christopher has some experience of domestic affairs, including police reform in Los Angeles). National Security Adviser Tony Lake was a good team player as Head of Policy Planning in the Carter State Department. He is not likely to seek to set up the NSC as a separate power base. UN Ambassador Madeleine Albright is a moderate Democrat who was close to Brzezinski in the Carter NSC. The UN job is again being raised to cabinet level; but it remains to be seen whether she will really be up to it.
CONFIDENTIAL