CONFIDENTIAL
See Ecommis 27/1 Editorial for more of the same.
13
China I
The Cabinet
linton has met his campaign promise of diversity in his Cabinet by nominating four blacks, four women and two Hispanics (though he was only able to do so through some unseemly juggling, considering only women for the Attorney-General post and putting Pena into the Transport job largely because he was Hispanic). Whilst this mix might, as he intended, "look like America", it suggests no obvious direction for policy. The danger is that the appointees will be no more than Clinton's spokespersons to the various interest groups.
The team has no unifying beliefs apart from loyalty to Clinton himself. Although Clinton outlined his thinking on foreign policy before the election, he has since toned down many of his stated policies as he has abandoned several of his key campaign promises. He gives the impression of a man still making compromises and seeking the middle of the road. But he is a wily politician and will know that now is the time to dump the baggage of unrealistic proposals and lower public expectations.
To gather in advice, Clinton aims to build a series of roughly equal power centres throughout government, with appointees representing opposite ends of the ideological spectrum head of each of the National Economic Council, Domestic Policy Council and the National Security Council serving as debate coordinators and channelling policy proposals to Clinton. For the three senior Cabinet posts Treasury, State and Defence, Clinton has nominated well-respected establishment figures. The collective wealth of their experience makes up for Clinton's relative inexperience (especially in defence and foreign policy).
Policy Priorities
Com
the
Clinton has promised to devote his first 100 days in the White House to domestic issues. But he concedes that foreign policy cannot be relegated to crisis management. His style is to listen to all advice; he has a natural aversion to interest groups, but he pays attention to expert opinion and will be open to influence in important foreign policy areas. importantly he values our advice and has undertaken to consult fully with us on key policy areas such as Iraq.
But now
He has consistently supported Bush's foreign policies. he must chart his own. He has given few clues. He has suggested that he might be more interventionist than Bush, favouring for example immediate enforcement of the No Fly Zone in Bosnia. His liberal inclinations will-influence his thinking where human rights are a factor such as China, But he is prepared to hold back when the full implications of a policy become clear, as with the reversal of his promise to Haitians.
Immediate foreign policy problems inherited from his predecessor (Iraq, Bosnia, Somalia) may distract Clinton's attention from policy development. But his single-mindedness should not be ignored. A feature of his election campaign was his ability to keep attention on the issues. He will certainly wish to show his continuing commitment to domestic concerns.
CONFIDENTIAL