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MDTTAN 6925
ISSUE. AN INTER-AGENCY MEETING SCHEDULED FOR LAST WEEK HAD BEEN CANCELLED, AND NOT YET RESCHEDULED. WINSTON LORD'S (ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR EAST ASIA) CONFIRMATION WAS NOT DUE UNTIL THE END OF FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH. UNTIL THEN, HE SEEMED TO HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP A LOW PROFILE, ALTHOUGH HE HAD BEEN TALKING TO MEMBERS OF CONGRESS ABOUT MFN. THE NSC DIRECTOR, KENT WIEDEMANN (PRESUMABLY WELL KNOWN TO YOU, AS TO ME FROM HIS TIME AS DIRECTOR OF THE CHINA OFFICE AT STATE) WILL TAKE UP HIS POST ON 1 MARCH.
4. BUT THE NEW ADMINISTRATION COULD NOT SIMPLY CONTINUE BUSH'S POLICY. THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE SOME ATTEMPT TO LINK MFN TO CHINA'S PERFORMANCE ON HUMAN RIGHTS ETC. THIS WOULD ALSO BE NECESSARY TO HOLD CONGRESSIONAL LEGISLATION AT BAY. WITH LUCK, CLINTON MIGHT BE ABLE TO PERSUADE THE CHINESE TO MAKE SOME MORE GESTURES IN THE RUN UP TO THIS YEAR'S MFN DEBATE, WHICH MIGHT ENABLE HIM TO RENEW MFN AND CLAIM THAT THE THREAT OF WITHDRAWAL HAD PRODUCED SOME PROGRESS.
AT THE SAME TIME, HE COULD SAY THAT HE WOULD TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CHINA'S PERFORMANCE ON HUMAN RIGHTS ETC. IN CONSIDERING WHETHER TO
RENEW MFN IN 1994. THIS APPROACH MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO SATISFY CONGRESS WITHOUT TYING THE ADMINISTRATION'S HANDS BY CONGRESSIONAL
LEGISLATION. BUT IT WOULD REQUIRE THE CHINESE TO PLAY BALL, AND
THE PRESIDENT TO DEVOTE TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THE MFN DEBATE TO WORK ON THEM.
FUTURE ACTION
5. WE AGREED THAT WE WOULD CONTINUE TO LOBBY CONGRESSMEN AND THEIR STAFFERS, AND KEEP CLOSE TO KEY FIGURES IN THE NEW ADMINISTRATION (INCLUDING USTR, COMMERCE AND THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL).
6.
ONE THOUGHT WHICH OCCURRED TO US WAS TO WONDER WHETHER UK
PARLIAMENTARY DELEGATIONS VISITING WASHINGTON MIGHT BE BRIEFED ON
THIS ISSUE IN CASE THEY WANTED TO RAISE IT WITH THEIR CONTACTS THERE. GRATEFUL TO KNOW WHETHER YOU (OR NAD) THINK THIS WOULD BE APPROPRIATE, AND HOW IT MIGHT BEST BE ARRANGED.
SIGNED S D PATTISON
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