Reference
UNCLASSIFIED
3. I am not really qualified to comment on China's military capability to act as Mr Lee suggests. It would presumably take some time for a blockade to be effective enough to deal severe blows to Taiwan's economy. Again, it seems to me that during the period between the announcement, or the imposition, of the blockade and its really taking effect on Taiwan, there would be some action by the international community to solve the crisis.
4.
There is no doubt some truth in the thought behind
Mr Lee's statement in that the United States and Japan would certainly be reluctant to go to war with China over Taiwan, but that is a considerable way from saying that they would take no action whatsoever, if China were to use military force against Taiwan. It also, of course, leaves completely out of the equation Taiwan's reaction and its own military capabilities. Mr Lee has come up with a provocative one-liner but it considerably oversimplifies the position.
HSS
RF Wye
Far Eastern Section
Research & Analysis Dept OAB 2/125 210 6219 5 February 1993
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