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STRICTLY PERSONAL FOR SIR JOHN COLES, DUSS, FROM AMBASSADOR AMBAS SADOR HONG KONG STRICTLY PERSONAL FOR GOVERNOR
FCO TELNO 61: SECRETARY OF STATE'S VISIT TO PEKING
1.
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THANK YOU FOR THIS BACKGROUND. I WAS INDEED PUZZLED BY THE TELEGRAM ABOUT THE SECRETARY OF STATE'S TRAVEL PLANS AND SENT A TELELETTER TO HUGH DAVIES ON 28 JANUARY SEEKING CLARIFICATION. I WILL NOT NOW EXPECT A SUBSTANTIVE REPLY TO THAT TELELETTER.
2.
I CAN WELL UNDERSTAND THE SECRETARY OF STATE'S RESERVATIONS ABOUT COMING TO PEKING IN THE EASTER RECESS. AS SEEN FROM HERE RECENT DEVELOPMENTS GIVE LITTLE CAUSE FOR ENCOURAGEMENT THAT WE WILL HAVE FOUND A WAY THROUGH THE PRESENT DIFFICULTIES BY THEN. THE LATEST CHINESE STATEMENTS ABOUT HONG KONG, EG BY LI PENG IN HIS CHINESE NEW YEAR MESSAGE (MY TELNO 111)) AND BY ZHOU NAN IN HIS INTERVIEW WITH MIRROR MONTHLY (HONG KONG TELNO 22) HAVE BEEN UNYIELDING. SO WAS THE MESSAGE DELIVERED BY LORD STERLING'S INTERLOCUTOR. ON THE GROUND THERE IS NO SIGN SO FAR OF THE GREATER CHINESE FLEXIBILITY SUGGESTED BY THE SOFTER PUBLIC LINE WHICH THEY ADOPTED IN DECEMBER AND EARLY JANUARY. I HAVE HAD NO WORD OF A MEETING WITH LU PING.
3.
A PEKING VISIT UNDERTAKEN IN SUCH CIRCUMSTANCES WOULD CLEARLY CARRY THE POLITICAL RISKS IDENTIFIED BY THE SECRETARY OF STATE. I HAVE NO DOUBT THAT HE WOULD SEE LI PENG (ASSUMING HE WAS STILL PREMIER) AS WELL AS QIAN QICHEN BUT IT IS IMPROBABLE THAT HE WOULD ACHIEVE A BREAKTHROUGH UNLESS CONSIDERABLE PROGRESS HAD BEEN MADE BEFOREHAND.
4. I AGREE THAT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST NOW WHETHER A VISIT IN THE WHITSUN RECESS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO YIELD USEFUL RESULTS OVER HONG KONG. THE GOVERNOR MAY WISH TO COMMENT ON THE LEGCO TIMETABLE BUT HIS TELEGRAMS HAVE INDICATED THAT THE DEBATE IS LIKELY TO BE PROTRACTED AND COULD LAST UNTIL JUNE/JULY. ON A MINOR ADMINISTRATIVE POINT, YOU WILL BE AWARE THAT MR HESELTINE AND LORD WAKEHAM BOTH HAVE PRELIMINARY PLANS TO VISIT PEKING DURING THE WHITSUN RECESS. I UNDERSTAND THAT THEY HAVE BEEN TOLD TO SORT OUT PRIORITIES BETWEEN THEM.
5. I CAN SEE THAT A MEETING IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE POLITICALLY EASIER FOR THE SECRETARY OF STATE IF WE WERE STILL IN THE PRESENT BIND BY MARCH/APRIL. HE WOULD NOT HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO ARGUE OUR CASE WITH LI PENG, BUT HE WOULD AVOID THE SOCIALISING