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Mr Garrett HKD
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Mii sus, You are probably aware of the changes that have taken place recently in the definition of what is meant by Taiwan and the "Republic of China" in an international context by the Taiwan authorities and the signs that they are moving towards a de facto "two China" policy and virtually giving up any practical interest in reunification. The formal commitment to reunification remains in place, but even it is being stated with less enthusiasm.
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2. Without going deep into the complexities of the relationship between China and Taiwan, it does seem to me that this change of attitude on the part of the Taiwan authorities could have important implications for Hong Kong. In particular it bears on the idea that was once very current that the the Chinese would hesitate before doing anything too awful to Hong Kong in terms of interfering with its constitutional structure and way of life for fear of putting Taiwan off any interest in the "one country, two systems" idea. This concept as you know was first formulated in a Taiwan context and remains the essence of China's offer to Taiwan. This is of course oversimplifying what was a relatively complex argument. Nonetheless it seems to me that the relationship between China and Taiwan is moving off in a very different direction. Taiwan's apparent demand for China to recognise the reality of a China that has been divided into separate sovereign political entities effectively rules out any idea of "one country, two systems", at least in its classical formulation. To an extent whether or not the Chinese interfere unduly in Hong Kong's political processes and autonomy after 1997 would then be by the by for Taiwan. The Taiwan authorities are looking for a deal of a different nature. They want acknowledgement of equality, as equal political entities, from China. This is not at all the same as Hong Kong reverting to Chinese sovereignty and then being granted a "high degree of autonomy" by China.
3. Thus it is no longer really possible to argue that in Taiwan's view at least, China's reunification with Hong Kong and Macao can be seen as in any real sense a precedent or model for Taiwan. Blatant Chinese overlooking of Hong Kong's "high degree of autonomy" after 1997 would of course strengthen the arguments of those in Taiwan who are doubtful of the wisdom of a political accommodation with China. But it would be unlikely substantially to influence the course of the China Taiwan relationship which is going in a very different direction.
4. Leaving the theory aside, Taiwan is aware of the approach of 1997 and the problems that will create for it. It has clearly taken the strategic decision to remain in close contact with Hong Kong. They could hardly realistically do otherwise. As the Director of the Mainland Affairs Council's Hong Kong and Macao
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