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THE CURRENT IMPASSE WITH THE CHINESE SEEMS TO ME ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE, AS DOES THEIR POSITION OVER THE INFORMATION OFFICE. HOWEVER, THEIR INTENTIONS ON TIMING ARE NOT AT ALL HELPFUL AND HU CLEARLY DOES NOT HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MOVE ON THIS, HENCE HIS WISH TO PASS THE BUCK UPSTAIRS. AS I AM REPORTING SEPARATELY ON THE AFTERMATH OF THE 19 DECEMBER ELECTIONS, PREMIER HAU SEEMS ALMOST CERTAIN TO GO DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. JASON HU'S SUGGESTION THAT WE SHOULD BRIEF THE INCOMING PREMIER ON HONG KONG MAY SIMPLY BE A PLOY TO TRY AND ENGAGE US IN SOME SORT OF DIALOGUE ON HONG KONG, AS THE SAME TIME, HU IS SYMPATHETIC TOWARDS THE UK, AND MAY BE GENUINELY TRYING TO BE HELPFUL AND PROBABLY DOES NOT HAVE THE CLOUT HIMSELF TO CHANGE A DECISION AS REGARDS THE MODALITIES OF AN ENHANCED OFFICE IN HONG KONG, WHICH WOULD PROBABLY HAVE BEEN SETTLED AT CABINET LEVEL.
12. AS I SEE IT, IF WE DO NEED TO HEAD OFF THE TAIWANESE WE HAVE THREE CHOICES:
A) APPROACH THE NEW PREMIER, AS HU SUGGESTS, ASSUMING HE WOULD BE AVAILABLE TO SEE ME IN EARLY FEBRUARY SO SOON AFTER TAKING OFFICE:
B)
RAISE THE MATTER WITH EITHER THE CHAIRMAN OR THE VICE CHAIRMAN OF THE MAC AS THE CABINET BODY MOST DIRECTLY CONCERNED WITH HONG KONG AFFAIRS GENERALLY:
C) GO BACK TO HU AND COMMENT IN DETAIL ON THE THREE ASPECTS OF THE PROBLEM WHICH CONCERN US I.E. THE NAME, THE FUNDING AND THE DATE OF CHANGE OVER, IF IN THE LIGHT OF THE ABOVE, THIS IS STILL CONSIDERED TO BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM.
13. GIVEN THAT IN TAIWAN, THE HIGHER THE LEVEL AT WHICH ONE ACTS, THE MORE LIKELY ONE WILL GET RESULTS IN OUR FAVOUR OPTION A) OFFERS THE BEST PROSPECTS, BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHO REPLACED HAU AND PRECISELY WHEN. I SPECULATE ON THESE POINTS IN A SEPARATE TELEGRAM ON THE INTERNAL POLITICAL SITUATION, BUT WE ARE VERY MUCH WORKING IN THE DARK FOR THE TIME BEING AS, INDEED, ARE MOST TAIWANESE.
14. GRATEFUL FOR FURTHER INSTRUCTION. IN THE MEANTIME I AM SEEING K S SHEU, DIRECTOR GENERAL OF THE BOFT, ON 29 JANUARY TO EXPLAIN THE SITUATION ON DONALD TSANG'S POSTPONED VISIT.
MORRICE
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