RESTRICTED
051311 MDLIAN $52
MANY OF THE SUCCESSFUL CANDIDATES HAD ADVOCATED THIS AS PART OF THEIR CAMPAIGN PLATFORM. MOREOVER, UN MEMBERSHIP WAS NOW THE COMMON GOAL OF BOTH THE RULING KMT AND THE DPP OPPOSITION.
4.
THE TASK FORCE IS LED BY VICE-MINISTER (POLITICAL) C Y FANG, AND WU TZU-DAN, DIRECTOR OF THE MFA'S INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATIONS DIVISION, HAS BEEN TRANSFERRED TO THEIR NEW YORK OFFICE TO FACILITATE THEIR BID. CHIEN WOULD NOT BE DRAWN ON THE NAME UNDER WHICH THEIR APPLICATION WOULD EVENTUALLY BE SUBMITTED, BUT SUGGESTED THAT THE CHOICE LAY BETWEEN 'REPUBLIC OF CHINA' AND SIMPLY TAIWAN'.
5.
THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SUGGESTIONS THAT AS PART OF HER PRAGMATIC DIPLOMACY, TAIWAN WOULD PROMOTE DUAL RECOGNITION, SOMETHING WHICH HAS HITHERTO BEEN ANATHEMA TO THE RULING PARTY AND SUCCESSIVE GOVERNMENTS. HOWEVER, NO FORMULA FOR THIS HAS SO FAR BEEN EXPOSTULATED.
COMMENT
6.
THE ABOVE IS, AT BEST, VARIATIONS ON A NUMBER OF THEMES WHICH HAVE BEEN EMERGING IN RECENT WEEKS. THE OBJECTIVE SEEMS TO BE TO ENGAGE CHINA ECOMOMICALLY WHILST KEEPING HER AT A SAFE DISTANCE POLITICALLY AND MILITARILY. HOWEVER, GIVEN EXISTING ENTRENCHED POSITIONS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TAIWAN STRAITS, IT SEEMS UNREALISTIC TO EXPECT ANY REAL PROGRESS TO BE MADE EITHER IN DUAL RECOGNITION OR UN MEMBERSHIP UNLESS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOVEMENT IN PEKING, WHICH WOULD BE UNTHINKABLE WITHOUT MAJOR INCENTIVES FROM THE TAIWANESE. C Y FANG MAY WELL HAVE BEEN HANDED A POISONED CHALICE, IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW HIS GROUP, REPRESENTING THE TRADITIONALIST FOREIGN MINISTRY APPROACH, E.G. RAYMOND TAI (MY TELNO 66), AND ELSEWHERE WHO WILL BE CHARGED WITH WORKING OUT AN OVERALL STRATEGY FOR RELATIONS WITH CHINA AND THE WIDER WORLD.
MORRICE
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